Categories
Sport

Win-loss information, playoff and Tremendous Bowl probabilities from Soccer Energy Index

The Kansas City Chiefs might have lost Super Bowl LV, but they are still the NFL team to beat this season, according to the new ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) projections for 2021.

FPI, which launched Monday, is a forward-looking projection model that includes ratings and projections for every team, from projected win-loss records to percentages to win each division.

A full explanation for how FPI works can be found here, but here’s the abridged version: The model determines forward-looking strength ratings for every team based on a variety of factors, including team win total, projected starting quarterback, returning starters and past performance on offense, defense and special teams. FPI then uses those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times to create projections.

For the 2021 version of FPI, we made some under-the-hood improvements, including an updated expected points added model and a better predictive quarterback rating system. But the outputs are all the same: We’re still talking football — and about the chances of each team’s success — which now includes 17 regular-season games and an expanded playoff field.

Let’s dive into the 2021 FPI projections with the 10 biggest takeaways. And we’ll start with the Chiefs:

More:
Complete team-by-team FPI projections
Team-by-team strength-of-schedule rankings

The Chiefs are still Super Bowl favorites

Yes, the Chiefs — not the Super Bowl-champion Buccaneers — are projected to be the best team and also have the best chances to hoist the Lombardi trophy next February.

Kansas City would be favored by 1.3 points over Tampa Bay on a neutral field if the teams were to suit up for a rematch tomorrow, FPI believes. And the Chiefs would hold at least a 3.5-point edge over every team outside of the Bucs, Bills and Ravens.

To no surprise: It’s the Patrick Mahomes-led offense — which includes Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and a rebuilt offensive line — that leads the way and is more than 2.5 points per game better than the next-best offense (Green Bay). Kansas City’s middling defense (No. 11 in the league, per FPI) isn’t a problem with that kind of strength on the other side of the ball.

The Chiefs rank No. 1 in just about every projection you can imagine, including projected wins (11.5) and chances to reach the playoffs (89%), win their division (72%), be the No. 1 seed in the AFC (32%) and reach the Super Bowl (30%).

With a 19% chance to win the Super Bowl, the Chiefs are a bit above average for the league’s favorite heading into the season. FPI has created preseason projections every year since 2015, and the 2021 Chiefs rank third out of the seven favorites, behind the 2017 Patriots (32%) and 2020 Chiefs (22%). Both of those teams went on to lose in the Super Bowl.

Don’t sleep on the rest of the league, of course. While Kansas City’s 19% chance to win the Super Bowl might be more than any other team’s, FPI is also saying that there’s a 4-in-5 chance that a team other than the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl. Here are the 10 teams most likely to win Super Bowl LV:

Most Likely Teams To Win Super Bowl LVI

The most likely Super Bowl matchup is … a rematch

Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay is still not that likely, however. FPI believes there is an 8% chance that the Chiefs face the Bucs again, more than any other potential matchup.

The Bucs, despite not being quite on Kansas City’s level, remain the favorite in the NFC and are the only other team to cross double digits in terms of chances to win the Super Bowl. Their strategy to run it back with nearly the same squad looks (on paper) like it could pay off; the Bucs have an 85% chance to reach the playoffs and a 15% shot to repeat as champions, according to FPI. Those numbers are buoyed by two factors:

  • FPI projects them to have the best defense in the league. The Bucs finished the season, including playoffs, with the sixth-most efficient defense under coordinator Todd Bowles. FPI thinks they take another step forward this season. The model gains confidence because of all of the returning starters from an already good unit. On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady & Co. are projected to be the No. 5 offense.

  • The NFC, with two of the top six teams in FPI rating, is a little less threatening than the AFC. And the NFC South doesn’t have any other teams ranked in FPI’s top 10.

Here are the 10 most likely Super Bowl LV matchups:

Most Likely Super Bowl LVI Matchups

AFC NFC Percentage Chance
Chiefs Buccaneers 8%
Bills Buccaneers 5%
Chiefs Packers 4%
Chiefs 49ers 4%
Ravens Buccaneers 3%
Chiefs Rams 3%
Chiefs Seahawks 3%
Browns Buccaneers 3%
Bills Packers 2%
Bills 49ers 2%

The difference between the Packers with and without Aaron Rodgers is … everything

The Green Bay Packers are clearly Super Bowl contenders. They’re the fifth-best team in football and have the fourth-best chance to win it all with a 6% shot, according to FPI. They’re returning the 2020 MVP and had the league’s most efficient offense last year — yes, even better than Kansas City’s.

But it wasn’t always so certain that FPI would give Green Bay the love. As Rodgers’ future hung in the balance over the summer, so too did the Packers’ projections. Had Rodgers simply decided to retire rather than suit up, Green Bay’s chances to make the playoffs would have dropped from 70% to 24%, and their Super Bowl chances would have dropped from 6% to … 0.2%.

The Ravens and Browns are contenders, but they hurt each other’s chances

The AFC North features two major Super Bowl threats in Baltimore and Cleveland. And while the effect isn’t dramatic, they would each be a little better off if the other weren’t around. The Ravens and Browns rank fourth and sixth in FPI rating — basically true talent level — but are fifth and seventh in chances to reach the playoffs and win the Super Bowl, respectively.

2 Related

That they have to play each other twice and are vying for the same divisional crown are limiting factors when it comes to win total and a chance to earn the coveted top seed in the AFC. While that’s a long shot with Kansas City in the conference, both the Ravens and Browns have at least a 10% shot to pull it off.

Baltimore is well balanced, with a projected offense and defense (and special teams!) that each ranks in the top 10. By contrast, FPI is bullish on Cleveland’s offense — which ranks third in the league behind the Chiefs and Packers but ahead of the Bills — but gives the Browns the 18th-best defense.

As far as the division title is concerned, Baltimore is a narrow favorite over the Browns: 43% to 40%.

Which team is most likely to pick No. 1 in the 2022 NFL draft?

We’ve been projecting preseason chances to get the top draft picks only since 2018, but no team has entered the year more likely to walk away from the No. 1 pick than the 2021 Houston Texans, at 24%. That tops the 2020 Jaguars, who entered last season at 23% and ended up earning that No. 1 pick. (Hey, at least it worked out for them with Trevor Lawrence being available.)

FPI considers Houston more than a touchdown worse than an average NFL team on a neutral field and believes the Texans simultaneously have the worst offense and worst defense in the league. FPI is working under the assumption that Deshaun Watson will not play for the Texans this season. Twenty-two women have said in lawsuits that Watson sexually assaulted them or engaged in sexually inappropriate behavior during massage sessions.

The Lions are the next-most likely team to earn the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NFL draft, with a 15% chance, followed by the Jets (10%), Jaguars (8%) and Eagles (7%).

49ers are narrow favorites in strong NFC West

The NFC West features three of FPI’s top 10 teams in the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks, and the 21st-ranked Cardinals aren’t necessarily an easy out, either. Although the Rams are FPI’s top team of the bunch, San Francisco is actually the favorite here. Slightly.

NFC West Teams’ Chances To Make The Playoffs

Team Chance to
Win Division
Chance to
Reach Playoffs
49ers 33% 68%
Rams 29% 64%
Seahawks 28% 63%
Cardinals 9% 32%

Why? It’s all about the schedule. Despite the strength of the division, the 49ers play one of the easiest strength of schedules in the league (SOS rank: 29th). In a 17-game slate, the division matters that much less compared to strength of schedule. San Francisco’s three games based on last year’s standings are against the Eagles, Bengals and Falcons, who all rank 24th or worse in FPI. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks all rank in the top half of the most difficult schedules.

The 49ers’ projection is based on the assumption that Jimmy Garoppolo is the starting quarterback. That decision is based on two factors:

  • Garoppolo is generally believed to be the favorite over rookie No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance entering the season.

  • If we made Lance the starter or partial starter, it would hurt the 49ers’ projection because the model assumes Lance is a little worse than Garoppolo, as of now. If Lance does beat out Garoppolo, that would be a sign he is comparable to the veteran, and thus a downgrade might not make sense. Therefore, designating Garoppolo as the starter seemed the safer choice.

This isn’t just about winning the closely contested division, though. This is how good the NFC West is: There’s a 37% chance that three of the four teams reach the playoffs, and there’s even a 3% chance that all four get in.

Cowboys lead the weak NFC East

It took just seven wins for Washington to top the NFC East last season, and FPI still doesn’t think much of the division a year later. The only team in the division with a positive FPI rating — making it above average — is the Dallas Cowboys, who are just barely there at +0.7 (meaning they would be favored over an average NFL team by less than a point).

With quarterback Dak Prescott back and the possibility of an offensive line returned to full strength, the Cowboys are the division favorites with a 45% shot to win it. Washington, despite being the reigning champ and making an improvement at quarterback in the form of Ryan Fitzpatrick, is second (29%), followed by the Giants (15%) and Eagles (11%).

Again, FPI doesn’t think the division is much-improved. And that’s embodied by an extreme result: The NFC East is the only division that recorded a simulation with a five-win champion. In one of our 20,000 sims, the Eagles took the crown at 5-11-1. That doesn’t even sound like a real record, let alone a division winner.

Can the Colts weather the storm without Carson Wentz?

When Indianapolis traded for Wentz, the organization bet on a bounce-back year from the former Eagles quarterback. Now the Colts will need to stay afloat while he recovers from foot surgery, which likely will cause him to miss the beginning of the season.

Not having Wentz is certainly a downgrade: FPI’s predictive quarterback rating system believes backup Jacob Eason’s mean projected season is roughly on par with Wentz’s (poor) 2020 campaign. The same model expects Wentz to improve considerably off last season but not all the way back to pre-2020 levels.

To handle the uncertainty in the timing of Wentz’s return, FPI gives the QB a very small chance to play in Week 1 and gradually increases the chance of his return until Week 8 — spanning the range of the recovery timeline laid out last week by coach Frank Reich.

play

1:34

Louis Riddick breaks down the risks the Colts would bring on if they decide to trade for Nick Foles after Carson Wentz’s foot injury.

The first five weeks of Indianapolis’ schedule are rough, as the Colts host the Seahawks and Rams before hitting the road to face the Titans, Dolphins and Ravens. Even without Wentz, the forecast for that stretch is better than one might guess; on average, the Colts win 2.2 of those games, and the chances that they start 0-5 is just over 1 in 20. Keep in mind, those numbers assume there is some chance Wentz plays in each of these games, particularly the later ones.

In the end, FPI’s projections for the Colts are not all that bad; they have a 44% chance to win the AFC South (second to the Titans) and a 59% shot to make the postseason. For a team with quarterback uncertainty, it could be much worse.

As of now, FPI is working under the assumption that two rookies — the Jaguars’ Lawrence and the Jets’ Wilson — are their respective teams’ current starters. And it isn’t particularly bullish on their prospects. The Jaguars and Jets are back-to-back in FPI’s rankings — at Nos. 29 and 30.

This isn’t entirely a reflection on them, though FPI is never particularly bullish on rookie quarterbacks. But the rest of the roster is important, too. And in these two cases, both quarterbacks will have below-average pass protection in front of them, and both will be trying to compensate for their teams’ defenses, which both rank in FPI’s bottom six.

Bears and Broncos on scheduling extremes

Any NFL fan intuitively knows that basing strength of schedule on the previous season’s record is a fool’s errand because teams’ abilities change too much from year to year to go off that, not to mention the fact that a single NFL season is not always a great indicator for the talent of a team.

Jeremy Fowler polled a panel of more than 50 coaches, execs, scouts and players to come up with top-10 rankings for 2021:

• Edge | Interior DL | LB
• CB | Safety | OT | Interior OL
• QB | RB | WR | TE
More NFL coverage »

A step up from the traditional method is to look at the mean win total for every team’s opponents, but this too has an issue; for instance, every Chiefs opponent’s win total is depressed because it has to play the Chiefs (division opponents doubly so!), and every Texans opponent’s win total is inflated for the same reason. FPI is able to reconcile that issue to determine a more accurate SOS. And no one has it rougher than the Bears in 2021.

For starters, the NFC has nine road games this season, so a team from that conference was always likely to occupy the top spot. And Chicago finds itself with eight games against FPI’s top 10 teams: at Rams, at Browns, at Bucs, vs. 49ers, vs. Ravens, at Seahawks and then a home-and-home with the Packers.

On the other end of the spectrum is Denver. The Broncos do have to see Mahomes and the Chiefs twice, but they play only four top-10 FPI teams and get the extra home game for being in the AFC. Denver has eight games against FPI’s bottom 10 teams: at Giants, at Jaguars, vs. Jets, vs. Eagles, vs. Lions, vs. Bengals and a home-and-home with the Raiders. Those first three are the Broncos’ first three games of the season, an easy slate right off the bat.

Check out the full strength of schedule rankings here.

Categories
Entertainment

The Metropolis Women announce that they’re nonetheless working with Nicki Minaj. hope

When it comes to the rap game there are a few names that you need to mention when it comes to keeping rappers for the ladies. Megan Thee Stallion, Latto and The City Girls are just a few. Since the City Girls hit the market in 2017, they have been releasing hot music and their fan base loves every bit of it. As they continue to work with artists in the industry, they remain confident to partner with Nicki Minaj. Last year while promoting their album City On Lock, the group mentioned during a live Instagram interview with The Shade Room that they wanted to work with Nicki Minaj.

During the interview, JT said they wanted to work with Nicki because they felt like she was the only rapper they hadn’t worked with. In the past, the group has worked with Cardi B, Saweetie and Megan Thee Stallion. Many have speculated that Nicki didn’t do the collaboration because of her problems with Cardi B after Miami said she was “Team Cardi” during an interview. Although Nicki never addressed the rumors, it looks like the group are still looking to work with the Queen.

In a recent episode of GQ’s “Me Real”, JT and Yung Miami announced their desire to work with Nicki again. While going undercover on TikTok, they responded to a comment from a fan who said, “Where’s the Nicki collaboration?” JT replied, “We sincerely hope for the future.” She continued, “A lot of people try to make fun of it like, ‘ahh, you’ll never get your feature,’ but you never know what can happen.”

Roommate, do you think the collaboration will ever take place?

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Categories
Science

Cenozoic Ice Age attributable to CO2 waste … As a result of fashions – depend on it?

Guest “I couldn’t make this kind of slate up if I tried” by David Middleton

H / T to Robert Bissett …

Decline in greenhouse gas caused global cooling 34 million years ago, study results
August 6, 2021, 6:00 a.m. / BY Abigail Eisenstadt

[…]

An article published in the journal Nature Geoscience confirms that a decrease in carbon dioxide about 34 million years ago caused the earth to enter a phase of global cooling known as the ice house state.

[…]

In the past, scientists have not been sure why the Eocene-Oligocene transition occurred. For a while they thought it was due to a change in the currents of the Antarctic Ocean. But this theory was gradually falling out of favor.

“The question was always what is driving this change,” said Naafs.

Using climate modeling, the researchers found that only a drop in carbon dioxide in the geologically short span of 300,000 years could have caused such a large drop in temperature.

[…]

Smithsonian Magazine

This is from the paper:

Two main mechanisms have been suggested as driving forces for this transition from greenhouse to ice house: (1) changes in the gates of the Southern Ocean leading to the thermal isolation of Antarctica and the onset of the Antarctic circumpolar current7,8; and (2) a decline in atmospheric pCO2, which is driving the cooling and building of continental ice sheets9–11. Various mechanisms have been used to explain this pCO2 decrease, including a shift from shelf to basin carbonate fractionation12, which promotes deepening of the calcite compensation depth13, possibly associated with increased weathering and / or a disruption of organic carbon fluxes14. Another hypothesis identifies the intensification of silicate weathering in connection with the tectonic deepening of the Drake Passage and the strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation as the primary mechanism15.

Laurentano et al., 2021

Where should I start?

  • Models cannot confirm anything.
  • We know pretty well that the “thermal isolation of Antarctica and the onset of the Antarctic circumpolar current” occurred about 34 million years ago.
  • We know pretty well that the abrupt cooling at the Eocene-Oligocene border coincided with the “thermal isolation of Antarctica and the onset of the Antarctic circumpolar current”.
  • Estimates of atmospheric CO2 from the Paleocene-Eocene vary widely depending on the investigation method.

This is from my college meteorology textbook:

FORECAST THE FUTURE. We can now try to decide whether we are now in an interglacial period, in which further ice ages will follow, or whether the world has finally emerged from the Cenozoic Ice Age. According to Milankovitch’s theory, radiation fluctuations of the type shown in Fig. 16-18 must persist, and therefore future glacial stages will continue. According to the theory just described, polar latitudes will be cold as long as the north and south poles maintain their current thermally isolated positions; and as the Arctic Ocean oscillates between ice-free and ice-capped states, the glacial and interglacial climates will continue.

Whichever theory one subscribes to, we can ultimately expect the fluctuations of the past to continue for millions of years.

Donn, William L. Meteorology. 4th edition. McGraw-Hill 1975. pp. 463-464

The Antarctic ice sheet likely began to form before the sudden drop in temperature supposedly caused by a drop in atmospheric CO2 … This suggests that the onset of cooling likely preceded the onset of CO2 withdrawal.

Figure 1. High latitude SST (° C) from Benthic Foram δ18O (Zachos, et al., 2001) Click to enlarge (older is pointing down).

This is from my historical geology textbook:

The suggestion that changing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could be an important factor in climate change dates back to 1861 when it was proposed by British physicist John Tyndall.

[…]

Unfortunately, we cannot accurately estimate past changes in CO2 levels in the atmosphere or in the oceans, nor is there a solid quantitative basis for estimating the extent of the decrease in carbon dioxide levels necessary to cause icing. In addition, the whole concept of an atmospheric greenhouse effect is controversial as the speed of equilibrium between the ocean and the atmosphere is uncertain.

Dott, Robert H. & Roger L. Batten. Evolution of the earth. McGraw-Hill, Inc. Second Edition 1976. p. 441.

Although great strides have been made in estimating past changes in CO2 levels since 1976, this is still not accurate enough to conclude that CO2 was an important climatic factor during the Phanerozoic.

Paleocene-Eocene CO2 estimates range from 400-800 ppm to 2,000-3,000 ppm. The drawdown that supposedly caused the geologically sudden cooling at the beginning of the Oligocene cannot even be properly quantified.

Figure 2a. Marine pCO2 (Foram Bor δ11B, Alkenon δ13C), atmospheric CO2 from plant crevices (green and yellow diamonds with red outlines), Mauna Loa instrumental CO2 (thick red line) and Cenozoic temperature change from benthic foram δ18O (light gray line). Figure 2b. Legend to Figure 3a.

Changes in atmospheric CO2 cannot be clearly identified with PETM, EECO, MECO or MMCO. be associated [1], [2]; however, a model now suddenly connects it to the one great Cenozoic climate shift, which has been well explained by plate tectonics and oceanic circulation changes. You can’t mean that seriously.

But climate models that can’t do anything else right, especially the late Pleistocene to the early Holocene, suddenly nail the Cenozoic Ice Age …

The models also failed to keep pace with records of past climates. With the new model from NCAR, for example, scientists have simulated the coldest point of the most recent ice age 20,000 years ago. Extensive paleoclimatic records suggest the earth has cooled nearly 6 ° C compared to pre-industrial times, but the model fed on low ice age CO2 showed temperatures almost double what suggesting that it was far too sensitive to the ups and downs of CO2. “That is clearly beyond the reach of geological data,” says Jessica Tierney, paleoclimatologist at the University of Arizona and co-author of the paper that appeared in the Geophysical Research Letters. “It’s totally out there.”

Science! (as in “she blinded me”)

They “solved” the “Holocene temperature puzzle” by simply applying a downward adjustment of the early Holocene temperatures. Unfortunately for them it remained unsolved.

Figure 3. “Something funny happened on the way to the Anthropocene.”

For their solution to the “Holocene Temperature Riddle” to be valid, much of the melting of the Laurentid ice sheet and the subsequent neoglaciation would have taken place with very little temperature changes. Fortunately, Kaufman et al., 2020 did not delete the CPS version of their reconstruction.

Figure 4. CPS with historical climatic periods and neoglaciation (Grosjean et al., 2007), Early Holocene ice expansion map (Dyke et al., 2003) and alpine tree height (Bohleber et al., 2021). PAGES 12K: The Ice Age Goeth

References

Bohleber, P., Schwikowski, M., Stocker-Waldhuber, M. et al. New evidence of glaciers for ice-free peaks in the life of the Tyrolean man from the ice. Science representatives 10, 20513 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-77518-9

Donn, William L. Meteorology. 4th edition. McGraw-Hill 1975. pp. 463-464

Dott, Robert H. & Roger L. Batten. Evolution of the earth. McGraw-Hill, Inc. Second Edition 1976. p. 441.

Dyke, AS, Moore, A., and L. Robertson. [computer file]. Deglaciation of North America. Geological Survey of Canada Open File 1547. Ottawa: Natural Resources Canada, 2003.

Grosjean, Martin, Suter, Peter, Trachsel, Mathias & Wanner, Heinz. (2007). “Ice-borne prehistoric finds in the Swiss Alps reflect Holocene glacier fluctuations”. Journal of Quaternary Studies. 22. 203 – 207. 10.1002 / jqs.1111.

Kaufman, D., McKay, N., Routson, C. et al. Holocene global mean surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach. Science data 7, 201 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0530-7

Lauretano, V., Kennedy-Asser, AT, Korasidis, VA et al. Eocene to Oligocene terrestrial cooling of the southern hemisphere due to sinking pCO2pCO2. Nat. Geosci. (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00788-z

Pagani, Mark, Michael Arthur & Katherine Freeman. (1999). “Miocene Development of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”. Paleoceanography. 14. 273-292. 10.1029 / 1999PA900006.

Pearson, PN and Palmer, MR: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations Over the Last 60 Million Years, Nature, 406, 695–699, https://doi.org/10.1038/35021000, 2000.

Royer, et al., 2001. Paleobotanical evidence for near-modern concentrations of atmospheric CO2 during part of the Tertiary. Science June 22, 2001: 2310-2313. DOI: 10.112

Steinthorsdottir, M., Vajda, V., Pole, M., and Holdgate, G., 2019, “Moderate level of Eocene pCO2 selected by Southern Hemisphere fossil plant stomata”: Geology, v. 47, p. 914-918, https://doi.org/10.1130/G46274.1

Tripati, AK, CD Roberts, and RA Eagle. 2009. “Coupling of CO2 and ice sheet stability over important climatic transitions of the last 20 million years”. Wissenschaft, Vol. 326, S. 1394 1397, December 4, 2009. DOI: 10.1126 / science.1178296

Zachos, JC, Pagani, M., Sloan, LC, Thomas, E. & Billups, K. “Trends, Rhythms, and Aberrations in Global Climate 65 Ma to present”. Science 292: 686-693 (2001).

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Sport

When does LaLiga begin? Dates, format, TV & streaming for the brand new soccer season in Spain

It is the beginning of a new era for one of the best football leagues in Europe. La Liga in Spain begins its first season without Lionel Messi since 2003. But the superstar’s departure and the budgetary challenges facing giants Barcelona and Real Madrid have created arguably one of the most compelling La Liga seasons in recent history .

In the 17 seasons that Messi (Barcelona) and later Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) played in La Liga, their teams won 15 of the titles. The other two went to Atletico Madrid, including last year’s championship when Atletico used the stumbling blocks of the all-time favorites to land at the top of the league.

Atletico Madrid, Barcelona and Real Madrid will again be favorites in the 2021-2022 season, but the next club class will dream of capitalizing on La Liga change and hope to do enough to meet a challenge for the title . The race for relegation (the bottom three teams move up to the second division) and for qualifying for European tournaments should be just as exciting as the battle for the top.

WATCH: Every La Liga game in English and Spanish on ESPN +

Getty Images

When does the La Liga season start?

The 2021-2022 La Liga season kicks off with the first round of games starting on Friday 13th August. During this weekend, all 20 teams will be on duty between Friday and Monday.

It is the first of 38 game days that will be played over the next nine months. The 38th and final day of the game is striking Sunday May 22, 2022.

The six-time La Liga winners will play in the opening game on Friday, August 13th Valencia CF host courageously Getafe. Valencia’s new manager Jose Bordalas will take on the side he has led for the past five seasons, lead Getafe to promotion to the second division and then finish in the La Liga top 10 for three of the past four seasons.

Atletico Madrid will not have an easy start to defending the title and will compete against the eighth-placed team from last year, Celtic Vigo. Barcelona should also have his hands full with the fifth place finishers Real company. In the meantime, real Madrid Set off to face a team that has caused problems in the past: Deportivo Alaves Only last year came a shocking 2-1 away win against Real Madrid.

Friday 13th August

game Time (ET) electricity TV channel
Valencia CF versus Getafe 3 pm ESPN +

Saturday August 14th

game Time (ET) electricity TV channel
CA Health vs. RCD Espanyol 11 clock ESPN +
Cadiz vs. Levante UD 1:30 p.m. ESPN +
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Betis 1:30 p.m. ESPN +
Deportivo Alaves vs. Real Madrid 4 p.m. ESPN +

Sunday 15th August

game Time (ET) electricity TV channel
Celta Vigo vs. Atletico Madrid 11:30 a.m. ESPN +
Barcelona vs. Real Company 14 o’clock ESPN + ABC, ESPN Sports
Seville vs. Vallecano Ray 4:15 p.m. ESPN +

Monday, August 16

game Time (ET) electricity TV channel
Villarreal vs. Grenade 14 o’clock ESPN +
Moose vs. Sporty Bilbao 4 p.m. ESPN +

How to watch La Liga in the US

All 380 games of the La Liga 2021-2022 season will be streamed on ESPN + in English and Spanish, beginning the first of eight years of exclusive coverage in the US. Select games will also be broadcast on ABC, ESPN and ESPN Deportes.

  • Events: 08/13/2021 – 05/22/2022
  • Matches: A total of 380 La Liga games in 2021-2022
  • Stream: ESPN + (all games in English and Spanish)
  • TV channel: ABC, ESPN (select matches)
  • Spanish speaking television: ESPN Deportes (selected games)

La Liga competition format

Each team plays at home and away against the other 19 clubs in La Liga, which play 38 games. The teams demand three points for a win, one for a draw and none for a loss.

The La Liga rating is based on the total number of points accumulated over the course of the 38-game season. Depending on where a club finishes in the table, that team can either win the title, get a place in one of three European elite club tournaments or, in the case of the bottom three teams, possibly suffer relegation.

End of table
1st place La Liga title + UEFA Champions League place
2nd-4th city ​​square Berth in the UEFA Champions League
5th-6th city ​​square Europa League place *
7th place Europa Conference League place *
8-17 city ​​square Participation in La Liga 2022-2023
18.-20. city ​​square Relegation to the 2nd division

* = pending final number of berths allocated by the European umbrella organization UEFA

When teams are tied in the table, there are two sets of tiebreakers that are used depending on how many clubs are bogged down:

La Liga table tiebreaker with two clubs:

1. Superior goal difference in league games between both teams
2. Superior goal difference in all league games
3. Most goals scored in all league games
4. Total fair play points according to the disciplinary ranking
5th game on neutral field (if necessary)

La Liga table tiebreaker with three or more clubs:

1. Superior total score in all games between the clubs that are drawn
2. Superior goal difference in all games between the clubs that are drawn
3. Superior goal difference in all league games
4. Most goals scored in all league games
5. Total fair play points according to the disciplinary ranking

Which teams have won La Liga?

90 La Liga seasons have been played since the first in 1929. The eternal powers Real Madrid (34) and Barcelona (26) have together won an incredible 60 of these titles.

Only seven other clubs have ever got their hands on the League Cup. Atletico Madrid, the defending champions of La Liga, have eleven championships behind them. Athletic Bilbao (8), Valencia (6) and Real Sociedad (2) are the only other teams with multiple titles.

team La Liga title
real Madrid 34
Barcelona 26th
Atletico Madrid 11
Sporty Bilbao 8th
Valencia 6th
Real company 2
Deportivo La Coruna 1
Real Betis 1
Seville 1

Which team will win La Liga in 2021-2022?

US sports betting and history say it will either be real Madrid, Atletico Madrid or Barcelona. No wonder, but the order of favorites raises eyebrows: The defending champion Atletico Madrid will not be in any doubt despite the reinforcement of the squad in the off-season. Seville, Real company and Villarreal are the closest in line with distant hopes of a potential challenge.

For the other 14 clubs, the odds are everywhere, but does that really matter? None of them are considered a factor in the title race because of these futures.

team Draft kings FanDuel BetMGM
real Madrid +110 +125 +100
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Categories
Health

Pentagon to require all service members to get Covid vaccine by mid-September

A United States Marine receives the Moderna coronavirus vaccine at Camp Foster on April 28, 2021 in Ginowan, Japan.

Carl Court | Getty Images

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon on Monday said it would seek to make Covid-19 vaccines mandatory for service members no later than the middle of September.

President Joe Biden supported the move.

“I am proud that our military women and men will continue to help lead the charge in the fight against this pandemic, as they so often do, by setting the example of keeping their fellow Americans safe,” the president said in a statement Monday afternoon.

In a message to the force, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said he consulted with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, secretaries and chiefs of the sister service branches as well as the White House Covid Task Force before arriving at this decision.

“I have every confidence that Service leadership and your commanders will implement this new vaccination program with professionalism, skill, and compassion,” Austin wrote in his memo to all Defense Department employees.

U.S. President Joe Biden listens as Lloyd Austin, U.S. secretary of defense, speaks at the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., on Wednesday, Feb. 10, 2021.

Michael Reynolds | Bloomberg | Getty Images

“We will also be keeping a close eye on infection rates, which are on the rise now due to the Delta variant, and the impact these rates might have on our readiness. I will not hesitate to act sooner or recommend a different course to the president if l feel the need to do so,” Austin wrote.

The decision comes as the delta variant of Covid-19 spreads rapidly, driving up hospitalizations and severe sickness among unvaccinated people.

The Pentagon says that approximately half of the U.S. military is already fully vaccinated, with the Navy posting the highest inoculation rates. The Navy says that about 73% of sailors are fully vaccinated.

CNBC Politics

Read more of CNBC’s politics coverage:

The military already requires vaccinations for several other diseases.

The White House welcomed Austin’s decision, saying that the vaccines are safe and will help “our service members to stay healthy, to better protect their families, and to ensure that our force is ready to operate anywhere in the world.”

“These vaccines will save lives. Period. They are safe. They are effective,” Biden said.

Since the coronavirus outbreak, 28 service members have died after complications from Covid, according to Pentagon data.

Categories
Science

Ganymede in infrared, captured throughout Juno’s final flyby

On July 20, 2021, NASA’s Juno spacecraft performed a flyby of Jupiter’s (and solar system’s) largest moon, Ganymede. This narrow pass was conducted as part of the gas giant’s thirty-fourth orbit (Perijove 34), during which the probe penetrated to 50,109 km (31,136 miles) from the lunar surface. The mission team took this opportunity to use Juno’s Jovian Infrared Auroral Mapper (JIRAM) to capture images of Ganymedes.

These were combined with images captured during two previous flybys to create a new infrared map of the surface of Ganymede, released in honor of the mission’s tenth anniversary (launched from Earth on August 5, 2011). This map and the JIRAM instrument could provide new information about Ganymede’s icy shell and the composition of his inner ocean that could tell whether or not it could support life.

The JIRAM instrument is designed to detect infrared light emerging from inside Jupiter and characterizing the atmospheric dynamics at a depth of 50 to 70 km (30 to 45 miles) below the cloud peaks of Jupiter. However, the instrument can also be used to study Jupiter’s largest moons Io, Europa, Ganymede and Callisto – collectively known as the Galilean moons in honor of their discoverer (Galileo Galilee).

As Scott Bolton, Junos Principal Investigator at Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) stated in a NASA press release:

“Ganymede is larger than the planet Mercury, but pretty much everything we explore on this mission to Jupiter is on a monumental scale. The infrared and other data Juno collected during the flyby provide basic clues to understanding the evolution of Jupiter’s 79 moons from the time they were formed to the present day. “

The previous two flybys were on June 7, 2021 and December 26, 2019, when the orbiter reached 50,109 km (31,136 miles) and 1,046 km (650 miles), respectively. The observation geometries provided enabled the JIRAM instrument to see the northern polar region of Ganymede for the first time and to compare the diversity of composition between the low and high latitudes.

In particular, the Juno probe was able to visualize the dramatic effect of charged particles (plasma) from Jupiter’s magnetic field on Ganymede’s surface. Ganymede is unique among the moons of the solar system in that it is the only satellite that has its own magnetic field. On earth, the presence of a magnetic field causes charged particles from the sun to enter the earth’s atmosphere around the poles.

These particles then interact with gas molecules in the Earth’s upper atmosphere, resulting in aurora activity – Aurora Borealis in the northern hemisphere and Aurora Australis in the southern hemisphere. Since Ganymede does not have an atmosphere to obstruct the flow of charged particles, the surface around the poles is constantly bombarded with plasma generated by Jupiter’s huge magnetosphere.

Annotated map of Ganymede. Photo credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / SwRI / ASI / INAF / JIRAM / USGS

Alessandro Mura, a Juno fellow researcher from the National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) in Rome, said:

“We found Ganymede’s high latitudes, dominated by water ice, with fine grain that is the result of intense bombardment of charged particles. Conversely, low latitudes are shielded by the moon’s magnetic field and contain more of its original chemical composition, especially non-water ice components such as salts and organic substances. It is extremely important to characterize the unique properties of these icy regions in order to better understand the space weathering processes that the surface is subject to. “

The polar views and close-ups Juno was able to build on observations made on previous NASA missions to explore the Jupiter system. These include the Voyager 1 and 2 missions, which passed through the system in 1979 on their way to the outer solar system; the missions Cassini-Huygens and New Horizons, which flew by in 2000 and 2007 on their way to Saturn and Pluto, respectively.

This latest information also builds on observations from the Galileo spacecraft, which was the first dedicated mission to study Jupiter and its moons (Juno is the second) and the first mission to orbit an outer planet. In the near future, ESA and NASA will send the JUpiter ICy moons Explorer (JUICE) and the Europa Clipper to explore Jupiter’s moons more closely – with a focus on Ganymede and Europe, respectively.

Artist’s impression of Juno at Jupiter. Photo credit: NASA

The Juno mission started on August 5, 2011 from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and traveled 2,800 million kilometers on July 4, 2016 to reach Jupiter (2018), but has been extended twice since then: first to July 2021 and finally to September 2025 Ed Hirst, the project manager of the Juno mission at NASA JPL:

“Since launch, Juno has executed over 2 million commands, orbited Jupiter 35 times, and collected about three terabits of scientific data. We are excited with our ongoing exploration of Jupiter, and much more is to come. We have started our expanded mission and look forward to 42 additional orbits to explore the Jupiter system. “

In the next phase of his expanded mission, Juno will narrow its orbit around Jupiter, which will allow it to make several narrow passes to observe Jupiter’s north polar cyclones. It will also do additional Ganymede flybys and close flybys of Europe and Io (and more of Ganymede). Perhaps most importantly, the orbiter will make the first exploration of the faint ring system that surrounds the planet, in which some of Jupiter’s smaller satellites orbit.

These observations will expand on the discoveries Juno has already made about Jupiter’s internal structure, internal magnetic field, atmosphere, and strong magnetosphere. Wrapped in a gaseous shell and ruled by such powerful forces, Jupiter is a proverbial onion, the many layers of which hide additional scientific discoveries. With its many orbits ahead, Juno will continue to peel off layers to learn more about the formation and evolution of Jupiter and other gas giants.

Further reading: NASA

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Categories
Entertainment

Nick Cannon does not assume it is a large deal that he has 7 children with four wives

How do the mothers of his children feel? “I don’t go around asking, ‘Who should I get pregnant next?'” Cannon said. “Usually it’s scenarios … That’s how it is: people say certain things in public. But if you really look at how a family infrastructure is set up, the woman is always the one who leads and makes the decisions. “

In fact, Cannon claimed Carey, who married Cannon in 2008 and divorced him in 2016, “was never a great believer in marriage, either.”

“Because she’s been in some scenarios in her past where there was an overwhelming, you know, relationship hierarchy because she got married very early,” he said of the Grammy winner with whom Tommy Mottola from 1993 to 1998. “That skewed some beliefs to the point that she no longer wanted to be in scenarios like this. When we first met and met, we came up with something like, ‘We don’t believe in marriage.’ It came to this place like, ‘We have a lot of similar beliefs. So let’s have some fun with it. Let’s embrace it.’ “

Categories
Sport

From Messi’s farewell to the sport towards Ronaldo and Juventus, it was a day like no different for Barcelona

It started with Lionel Messi’s tearful farewell to the only club he has ever known, and ended with an emotional atmosphere at the annual Joan Gamper Cup game that happened to be played against Messi’s great rivals Cristiano Ronaldo and Juventus! August 8, 2021 will live a long time in the history of Barcelona.

– Messi timeline: breakdown of his 20 years at Barcelona
– Stream ESPN FC Daily to ESPN + (US only)
– Don’t you have ESPN? Get instant access

Lionel Messi stepped onto the podium on Sunday at 12 noon CEST and said goodbye to Barcelona. AP Photo / Joan MonfortMessi’s Barca teammates watched as the club’s greatest player tearfully struggled to speak. Andreu Dalmau / EPA-EFE / Shutterstock How successful were Barcelona during Messi’s time at the club? Let this picture tell the story. Eric Alonso / Getty Images Outside the Camp Nou, Barcelona fans are still coming to terms with their hero’s departure. Pau Barrena / AFP / Getty ImagesFor many, all they’ve ever met is the Argentine superstar wearing the club’s # 10 jersey. Robert Bonet / NurPhoto / Getty Images A series of emotions permeated Barcelona fans as their idol spoke at the stadium. Robert Bonet / NurPhoto / Getty Images Hours later, Barca coach Ronald Koeman promised to give fans “joy” despite Messi’s departure. Getty: And the post-Messi era at least got off to a successful start, with Memphis Depay versus Juve. Pedro Salado / Quality Sport Images / Getty ImagesMemphis opened the lead early and later pitched Martin Braithwaite to double the lead. Joan Monfort / AP Photo: There was little that Cristiano Ronaldo could do to influence the game during his 45-minute action. GettyBarca won the ninth straight Gamper’s Cup, but the game will be remembered for the man who wasn’t there. Pau Barrena / Getty Images

A 3-0 win on Sunday gave at least the fans reason to smile, but it could be some time before the joy really returns. Because on that day Lionel Messi – the former Barcelona player – said goodbye to the only club he has ever known.

Categories
Science

Weekly Local weather and Vitality Information Roundup #465 – Watts Up With That?

The Week That Was: 2021-08-07 (August 7, 2021)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “’The exception proves that the rule is wrong.’ That is the principle of science. If there is an exception to any rule, and if it can be proven by observation, that rule is wrong.”  – Richard Feynman, The Meaning of it All: Thoughts of a Citizen-Scientist (1998)

Number of the Week: – Down 38%

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

A Philosophy Or An Institution: On July 23, the Wall Street Journal published a contemplative interview of Matt Ridley by Tunku Varadarajan. It dealt with issues such as COVID, climate science, and biology, but TWTW will focus on those parts that may apply to climate science as practiced today. Ridley, an English Viscount from Northumberland (on the border with Scotland) trained as a biologist and has written books as diverse as The Red Queen: Sex and the Evolution of Human Nature; The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves; and How Innovation Works: And Why It Flourishes in Freedom.

With the Canadian molecular biologist Alina Chan, Ridley is finishing a book called “Viral: The Search for the Origin of Covid-19,” scheduled to be published in November.

“As Mr. Ridley worked on the book, he says, it became ‘horribly clear’ that Chinese scientists are ‘not free to explain and reveal everything they’ve been doing with bat viruses.’ That information has to be ‘dug out’ by outsiders like him and Ms. Chan. The Chinese authorities, he says, ordered all scientists to send their results relevant to the virus for approval by the government before other scientists or international agencies could vet them:”

The article begins with: [Boldface added]

“’Science’ has become a political catchword. ‘I believe in science,’ Joe Biden tweeted six days before he was elected president. ‘Donald Trump doesn’t. It’s that simple, folks.’

“But what does it mean to believe in science? The British science writer Matt Ridley draws a pointed distinction between ‘science as a philosophy’ and ‘science as an institution.’ The former grows out of the Enlightenment, which Mr. Ridley defines as ‘the primacy of rational and objective reasoning.’ The latter, like all human institutions, is erratic, prone to falling well short of its stated principles. Mr. Ridley says the Covid pandemic has ‘thrown into sharp relief the disconnect between science as a philosophy and science as an institution.’”

If we consider that the branch of philosophy called epistemology is the systematic study of knowledge and how it is acquired, then physical science must include physical reality. It is not the study of an imaginary world tied up in computer modeling without frequent testing against all the physical evidence available. The imaginary world appears to be the realm of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers. The article continues:

“In the U.K., he has also noted ‘a tendency to admire authoritarian China among scientists that surprised some people.’ It didn’t surprise Mr. Ridley. ‘I’ve noticed for years,’ he says, ‘that scientists take a somewhat top-down view of the political world, which is odd if you think about how beautifully bottom-up the evolutionary view of the natural world is.’

“He asks: ‘If you think biological complexity can come about through unplanned emergence and not need an intelligent designer, then why would you think human society needs an ‘intelligent government’?’ Science as an institution has ‘a naive belief that if only scientists were in charge, they would run the world well.’ Perhaps that’s what politicians mean when they declare that they ‘believe in science.’ As we’ve seen during the pandemic, science can be a source of power.

“But there’s a ‘tension between scientists wanting to present a unified and authoritative voice,’ on the one hand, and science-as-philosophy, which is obligated to ‘remain open-minded and be prepared to change its mind.’ Mr. Ridley fears ‘that the pandemic has, for the first time, seriously politicized epidemiology.’ It’s partly ‘the fault of outside commentators’ who hustle scientists in political directions. ‘I think it’s also the fault of epidemiologists themselves, deliberately publishing things that fit with their political prejudices or ignoring things that don’t.’” 

In shifting from the pandemic to climate science the article states:

“…. ‘The modeling of where the pandemic might go,’ he says, ‘presents itself as an entirely apolitical project. But there have been too many cases of epidemiologists presenting models based on rather extreme assumption.’

“One motivation: Pessimism sells. ‘You don’t get blamed for being too pessimistic, but you do get attention. It’s like climate science. Modeled forecasts of a future that is scary [sic] is much more likely to get you on television.’ Mr. Ridley invokes Michael Crichton, the late science-fiction novelist, who hated the tendency to describe the outcomes of models in words that imply they are the ‘results’ of an experiment. That frames speculation as if it were proof.

“Climate science is already far down the road to politicization. ‘Twenty or 30 years ago,’ Mr. Ridley says, ‘you could study how the ice ages happened and discuss competing theories without being at all political about it.’ Now it’s very hard to have a conversation on the subject ‘without people trying to interpret it through a political lens.’

“Mr. Ridley describes himself as ‘lukewarm’ on climate change. He accepts that humans have made the climate warmer, but doesn’t subscribe to any of the catastrophist views that call for radical changes in human behavior and consumption. His nuanced position hasn’t protected him from attack, of course, and the British left is prone to vilify him as a ‘denier.’

“Climate science has also been ‘infected by cultural relativism and postmodernism,’ Mr. Ridley says. He cites a paper that was critical of glaciology—the study of glaciers—’because it wasn’t sufficiently feminist.’ I wonder if he’s kidding, but Google confirms he isn’t. In 2016 Progress in Human Geography published ‘Glaciers, gender, and science: A feminist glaciology framework for global environmental change research.’

“The politicization of science leads to a loss of confidence in science as an institution. The distrust may be justified but leaves a vacuum, often filled by a ‘much more superstitious approach to knowledge.’ To such superstition Mr. Ridley attributes public resistance to technologies such as genetically modified food, nuclear power—and vaccines.”

After a discussion of the beginning of vaccination in England and America from practices used in Ottoman Turkey, for which early advocates were pilloried, the article concludes:

“Vaccines have been central to the question of ‘misinformation’ and the White House’s pressure campaign against social media to censor it. Mr. Ridley worries about the opposite problem: that social media ‘is complicit in enforcing conformity.’ It does this ‘through ‘fact checking,’ mob pile-ons, and direct censorship, now explicitly at the behest of the Biden administration.’ He points out that Facebook and Wikipedia long banned any mention of the possibility that the virus leaked from a Wuhan laboratory.

“‘Conformity,’ Mr. Ridley says, ‘is the enemy of scientific progress, which depends on disagreement and challenge. Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts, as [the physicist Richard] Feynman put it.’ Mr. Ridley reserves his bluntest criticism for ‘science as a profession,’ which he says has become ‘rather off-puttingly arrogant and political, permeated by motivated reasoning and confirmation bias.’ Increasing numbers of scientists ‘seem to fall prey to groupthink, and the process of peer-reviewing and publishing allows dogmatic gate-keeping to get in the way of new ideas and open-minded challenge.’

“The World Health Organization is a particular offender: ‘We had a dozen Western scientists go to China in February and team up with a dozen Chinese scientists under the auspices of the WHO.’ At a subsequent press conference they pronounced the lab-leak theory ‘extremely unlikely.’ The organization also ignored Taiwanese cries for help with Covid-19 in January 2020. ‘The Taiwanese said, ‘We’re picking up signs that this is a human-to-human transmission that threatens a major epidemic. Please, will you investigate?’ And the WHO basically said, ‘You’re from Taiwan. We’re not allowed to talk to you.’’

“He notes that WHO’s primary task is forestalling pandemics. Yet in 2015 it ‘put out a statement saying that the greatest threat to human health in the 21st century is climate change. Now that, to me, suggests an organization not focused on the day job.’

“In Mr. Ridley’s view, the scientific establishment has always had a tendency ‘to turn into a church, enforcing obedience to the latest dogma and expelling heretics and blasphemers.’ This tendency was previously kept in check by the fragmented nature of the scientific enterprise: Prof. A at one university built his career by saying that Prof. B’s ideas somewhere else were wrong. In the age of social media, however, ‘the space for heterodoxy is evaporating.’ So those who believe in science as philosophy are increasingly estranged from science as an institution. It’s sure to be a costly divorce.”

The UN has lost its way. It has become an organization for acquiring power and world influence, while ignoring its actual purposes. The IPCC is an example. The IPCC has abandoned the scientific method in favor of extremely pessimistic stories and its followers demand conformity to these stories. Politicians are taking advantage of this conformity claiming “science says” which has little more meaning than the donkey brays. See Article # 2 and links under Seeking a Common Ground.

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A Bit Too Pessimistic? For twenty-five years AAAS Science has been a leader in climate pessimism, refusing to publish articles that show that the world is not warming dangerously. According to Our World in Data, during this period humanity has experienced the biggest drop in those living in extreme poverty ever, led by South Asia, East Asia, and Pacific regions. In a large part, this enormous benefit to humanity comes from the use of fossil fuels. The great improvements to humanity give no reason for poor countries to act on the predictions of climate pessimists such as those covered by AAAS Science.

Thus, it was somewhat surprising to read about an editorial in Science by staff writer Paul Voosen titled: “U.N. climate panel confronts implausibly hot forecasts of future warming.” However, the article itself demonstrates that AAAS Science has not changed.

There are two sources for extreme hot forecasts of future warming. One is extreme scenarios, story lines, of future carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The second is high sensitivity of the globe’s temperatures to increased CO2. Roger Pielke, Judith Curry, and others have demonstrated that IPCC’s most extreme scenario (RCP8.5) for CO2 emissions is not feasible. Yet, it is the basis for thousands of papers claiming climate disasters.

The new climate models have been run and according to the article in AAAS Science the extreme results may be a bit too extreme to be considered plausible, even by the most gullible. A graph in the article shows that the unadjusted forecast of the highest temperature increases by 2080 to 2100 is almost 7°C (12°F). The raw forecast has been constrained to about 5.5°C (10°F). The median estimates are 5°C (9°F) raw and 4.25°C (7.5°F) constrained. The article also quotes some modelers that they will do better next time.

The sensitivity of the globe’s temperatures to increasing CO2, the other source of extreme forecasts, is not discussed. But this is the most important one. Over forty years of measurement of atmospheric temperature trends shows since January 1979 the atmosphere has warmed by 0.14 C/decade (0.25°F/decade) or 0.55°C (1°F). Projecting this out to 2100, the globe will warm by about 1.1°C (2°F). Given the enormous benefits humanity has experienced over this period, this increase is hardly a cause for concern.

The article in AAAS Science may have expressed that the newest global climate model results are a bit too pessimistic, but AAAS Science and the IPCC remain highly pessimistic about the future without physical evidence that CO2 is causing dangerous warming. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, Measurement Issues – Atmosphere, and https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty

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Upcoming Pessimism: The Physical Science Basis of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR-6) is due out this week. As discussed above, it is doubtful it will be based on physical science, but more likely on imaginary forecasts from global climate models that have not been tested against evidence such as temperature trends in the atmosphere, where the greenhouse gases are.

David Whitehouse, Science Editor for the Global Warming Policy Forum, discusses the recent data in the HadCRUT5 surface global temperature database maintained by the UK Met Office. [Note this database was used by The Right Climate Stuff Team which recognized the latest version increased the warming bias, but it is superior to that of NOAA and NASA-GISS because it does not infill data were data do not exist.] Whitehouse questions whether the new IPCC report will acknowledge reality. He writes:

“The data for this century shows several features; a long hiatus (2002 – 2014) that was acknowledged by the IPCC (but later denied by some scientists), an intense multi-phased El Nino event and its aftermath (2015 -2020) and now a recent decline to levels where they were when the IPCC published its last report. Unequivocal is not a word to describe this data.”

“So, when you read the new IPCC report and take in the alarmist headlines it will undoubtedly generate, bear in mind that since its previous report in 2014 global temperatures have barely changed and have declined from their El Nino-inspired peak of a few years ago.” See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

****************

Tiny Storage: As TWTW has expressed, the true cost of unreliable electricity generation to the consumer is not realized until the cost of making such generation reliable is realized. At this time there is no proof of concept of a utility scale storage system that relies on wind or solar.

A great deal has been written about battery storage such as the “Big Battery” in Victoria, Australia, which caught fire. The write-ups revealed how puny the “Big Battery” is. Paul Homewood wrote:

“In fact the “Big Battery” is rated at 300 MW, and can only store 377 MWh of usable energy. Average load on the Australian grid is 30 GW. In other words, in theory it could supply Australian demand for less than a minute. This battery, and even many more like it, cannot store enough electricity to fulfil demand as claimed, for instance at night when there is no solar power.

But what it will not do is store energy to cater for intermittent renewables.”

“For the record, Australia still gets 79% of its electricity from fossil fuels, and just 14% from wind and solar:”

Compared with the “Big Battery,” the Bath County (Virginia) Pumped Storage Station has a rated capacity 10 times as large (3,003 MW), with a total capacity of 63 times as large (24,000 MWh (Megawatt Hours)). It is replenished by thermally generated electricity, fossil fuel and nuclear. By comparison, the “Big Battery” is miniscule. Without massive storage, claims that wind and solar can replace fossil fuels are great exaggerations. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy – Storage

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Who Does the Mining and Processing? Donn Dears discusses key points in a report by the Biden Administration: “Building Resilient Supply Chains, Revitalizing American Manufacturing and Fostering Broad-Based Growth: 100-Day Reviews under Executive Order 14017.” The report highlights three minerals needed for battery powered vehicles: Class-1 Nickle, Cobalt, Lithium. Add to that the increased need for Copper and Manganese, and we see the “green revolution” will need massive increases in mining and processing of these minerals. As with nuclear energy replacing fossil fuels for electricity generation, it is doubtful the green industry will support a “green revolution.” See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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The Great Melt: Each summer ice in Greenland melts. The green group EcoWatch put the melt in an alarmist perspective: “Extreme Ice Melt in Greenland in One Day Was Enough to Cover Florida in Two Inches of Water.” The headline was picked up by other examples of yellow journalism such as The Hill.

Tony Heller pointed out that Greenland is more than ten times larger than Florida and that according to Polar Portal, run by the Danish science institutions which keeps records on Greenland and started this yellow journalism, the sudden drop was an extreme event, and the ice mass in Greenland is increasing, not decreasing. Even in 2019, which had the greatest summer loss, the ice mass increased. See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?, Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?, and Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice.

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Additions and Corrections: Reader Bryan Leyland wrote that the July 24 TWTW was not quite correct in stating what happened at the Oroville Dam in California. Leyland writes:

“The spillway chute of the main spillway was damaged by relatively low discharges, so they shut the spillway gates and the water tipped into the emergency spillway. The emergency spillway was designed for 10 feet of overtopping but when it reached about 1 foot in the water started eroding into the base of the embankment and would have released a major flood if it failed. They called for an evacuation of 20,000 people downstream. They reopened the main spillway gates and accepted that the chute downstream would be seriously damaged.

“The flood was not anywhere near the design flood.”

Leyland cites an interview with Robert Bea (a leading forensic engineer who was long concerned with the dam), and with a colleague wrote “Root Causes Analyses of the Oroville Dam Gated Spillway Failures and Other Developments.” Root Causes Analysis was used by the late Hal Dorian, a leader of The Right Climate Stuff Team. See: https://alumni.berkeley.edu/california-magazine/just-in/2017-07-27/bob-bea-takes-us-deep-dive-through-his-dire-oroville-report,

TWTW appreciates additions and corrections to its commentary.

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14th ICCC: The 14th International Conference on Climate Change presented by The Heartland Institute will be October 15 to 17, 2021, at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. See https://climateconference.heartland.org/

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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD

THE JACKSON

At the 39th Conference of the Doctors for Defensive Preparedness, SEPP announced that the winner of the 2021 April Fools Award was the entire Biden Administration for its declaration of a climate emergency in complete disregard for the scientific method and the fact that this is the most prosperous time in the history of humanity [prior to COVID].

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Number of the Week: – Down 38%. For over a month, TWTW has followed wind power at the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) which demonstrates that load balancing is a difficult task. An electric grid is an energized system and load balancing is needed to assure there is sufficient current to meet consumption, without overloading the system to the point of damage. With the exception of a few extreme spikes, since July 22, after days of running below 500 MW (megawatts), often near zero, on the afternoon of August 5, wind power jumped to over 2500 MW and bounced between 2500 and 1500 MW to August 7.

The great variability in wind power requires that BPA operate its dams so that hydro power varies from almost 10,000 MW to 4,000 MW placing stress on the hydro-turbines in the system.

As cited in the July 17 TWTW, in 2012 BPA realized that the hydro system was at its limits for balancing wind power. Since then, BPA has curtailed the capacity of the wind power it supports by 38%, from slightly above 4700 MW to 2930 MW. How do wind power advocates plan to balance the grid when wind power fails?

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Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?

Climate Scientist Warns ‘Next 20-30 Years Will Be Cold’

By Thomas Williams, Breibart, July 28, 2021

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2021/07/28/climate-scientist-warns-next-20-30-years-will-be-cold/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=daily&utm_campaign=20210728

How a sudden stratospheric warming affected the Northern Hemisphere

By Nancy Wolfe Kotary for MIT News, Boston MA (SPX), Jul 24, 2021

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/How_a_sudden_stratospheric_warming_affected_the_Northern_Hemisphere_999.html

link to paper: Impact of September 2019 Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming on Mid-Latitude Ionosphere and Thermosphere over North America and Europe

By Larisa P. Goncharenko, et al. Geophysical Research Letters, July 16 2021

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL094517

Ye sun spottes

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 4, 2021

“Since the Little Ice Age, people have noticed that solar activity fluctuates, and that those fluctuations affect weather conditions on Earth. How did we ever get to the point that the scientists-who-say deny what Adam Smith blurted out a quarter of a millennium ago?”

Censorship

Science Journal Demands “Hate Crime” Laws to Shield Scientists from Public Criticism

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 5, 2021

Link to article: Mounting antiscience aggression in the United States

By Peter J. Hotez, Plos Biology, July 28, 2021

https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3001369

“There is a troubling new expansion of antiscience aggression in the United States. It’s arising from far-right extremism, including some elected members of the US Congress and conservative news outlets that target prominent biological scientists fighting the COVID-19 pandemic.”

“The President of the United States, together with science leaders at the federal agencies should prepare and deliver a robust, public, and highly visible statement of support. The statement would reaffirm the contribution of scientists across United States history.”

[SEPP Comment: Will the “Hate Crime” Laws apply to “Climate Change Deniers,” will this be the theme for Plos Climate?]

Sky News Australia Suspended By YouTube

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 2, 2021

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/

Download with no charge:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Climate-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Volume-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

Home

Download with no charge:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging the Orthodoxy

How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch With Reality

By Roger Pielke Jr and Justin Ritchie, Issues in Science and Technology, Summer 2021 [H/t WUWT]

“A failure of self-correction in science has compromised climate science’s ability to provide plausible views of our collective future.”

Will the IPCC report acknowledge reality?

By David Whitehouse, GWPF Science Editor, GWPF, Aug 6, 2021

US Strategic Minerals Deficiencies

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, July 27, 2021

Link to: Building Resilient Supply chains, Revitalizing American Manufacturing and Fostering Broad-Based Growth: 100-Day Reviews under Executive Order 14017

By Staff, The White House, June 2021

Unsettling the apple cart III: Koonin on hyping heat

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 28, 2021

“Continuing University of Guelph professor Ross McKitrick’s look at Steven E. Koonin’s landmark book Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What it Doesn’t, and Why it Matters.

“The middle chapters of Unsettled cut through the rhetoric around extreme weather like a tornado. It is one of the most important topics for someone like Koonin to tackle since he links important scientific information about trends in weather hazards with the glaring dysfunction of the mechanisms by which the public get informed about them.

Unsettling the apple cart IV: Koonin on tempest terrors

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 4, 2021

See link immediately above.

World of Hurt from Climate Policies-Part 3

By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Aug 6, 2021

A New Crisis for Climate Science?

By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Aug 2, 2021

See article in Science below:

Science magazine blows the whistle on climate model failure

By Graham Lloyd, The Australian, July 30, 2021

See article in Science below:

Science Magazine, climatologists: models overstate temperature changes by a factor of two or more

By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame, July 28, 2021

https://motls.blogspot.com/2021/07/science-magazine-climatologists-models.html

“Great, in 2021, the Science Magazine finally admits that indeed, the (late) Fred Singer and Luboš Motl (whose names are suppressed) have been right all along and the greenhouse-with-feedback prediction for the tropopause above the equator contradicts the observations. The observations don’t produce any significantly elevated warming there.”

Defending the Orthodoxy

U.N. climate panel confronts implausibly hot forecasts of future warming

By Paul Voosen, Science, July 27, 2021

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/07/un-climate-panel-confronts-implausibly-hot-forecasts-future-warming

Earth’s energy budget is out of balance – here’s how it’s warming the climate

By Scott Denning, The Conversation, Aug 4, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://phys.org/news/2021-08-earth-energy-climate.html

Link to paper: Radiative forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases: Estimates from climate models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

By W. D. Collins, Journal of Geophysical Research, July 28, 2006

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005JD006713

From abstract: In general, the LBL models are in excellent agreement with each other. (benchmark line-by-line (LBL) codes)

[SEPP Comment: Since the models are in agreement and contradicted by observational and experimental data, they are all wrong.]

Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science

Climate emergency: Tipping points are already here, scientists warn

Limited time available to shift priorities to alleviate climate crisis 

By Susan Chacko, Down To Earth, Aug 2, 2021

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/climate-emergency-tipping-points-are-already-here-scientists-warn-78236

Link to petition with 13,000 signatures: World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency

By William Ripple, et al. BioScience, Nov 5, 2019

https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/70/1/8/5610806

Update: World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency 2021

By William J Ripple, et al. BioScience, July 28, 2021

https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biab079/6325731

[SEPP Comment: More livestock (4 billion), Amazon forest logging, economic growth, energy use, greenhouse gases and temperatures, melting ice, ocean changes (average pH second lowest since 2012), etc.]

Energy Independence Doesn’t Mean What It Used To

And here’s why that’s a national security issue.

By Parker Bolstad, an active duty military intelligence officer in the U.S. Army, and Jordy Lee, the program manager for the Supply Chain Transparency Initiative at the Payne Institute for Public Policy. Foreign Policy, July 26, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

More of earth’s population at risk of flooding, research shows

By Celine Castronuovo, The Hill, Aug 4, 2021

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/566349-more-of-earths-population-at-risk-of-flooding-research-shows

Link to paper: Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods

By B. Tellman, Nature, Aug 4, 2021

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03695-w?utm_medium=email&_hsmi=146486857&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8UtOefC2JERY7pV-AfZL1ubfSyhb52tumemMNLD1e5T1bNeNyiGdDyzT4SyywgSIjZXKrRM405WrD7qRH_7vBBAxbyag&utm_content=146486857&utm_source=hs_email

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Britain, climate change and the reality of extreme weather events-Ross Clark

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 29 2021

“What is interesting is that Ross Clark has homed in on my two key points:

1) There has been no rise in temperatures in the last decade.

2) The increase in rainfall is largely confined to Scotland, with little long term changes in the south and east.”

Environmentalists have got it wrong – we’re not facing an insect apocalypse

By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, July 29, 2021

https://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/were-not-facing-an-insect-apocalypse/

Flash floods will be more common, say climate scientists right after flash floods happen

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 28, 2021

“In the Great Pagan Tradition of neolithic fortune telling, modern climate witchdoctors predict everything right after it starts

“Last year it was droughts and bushfires. This year its floods. If only the climate models worked, they could have warned the people of Europe, China and India that there would be rampant flooding before it happened.”

After Paris!

The climate scaremongers – Part One

By Paul Homewood, The Conservative Woman, Aug 6, 2021

“As the next climate conference, COP26 in Glasgow, gets closer, the media are ramping up their climate propaganda to intimidate the public who are becoming rightly concerned how much the Net Zero agenda is going to cost them.”

Change in US Administrations

9 Things to Know About Senate’s $1.1 Trillion Infrastructure Bill

By David Ditch, et al. Daily Signal, Aug 3, 2021

Lack of Infrastructure to Hinder Biden’s 2030 Offshore Wind Target

By Staff, Power Engineering International, Aug 2, 2021

Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide

Gratitude for CO2: It Continues to Feed the World

By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Markets, Aug 4, 2021

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2021/08/04/gratitude_for_c02_it_continues_to_feed_the_world_788506.html

Problems in the Orthodoxy

Let’s divide the European Union

By Dr Jiří Weigl, The Reference Frame, posted July 25, 2021

https://motls.blogspot.com/2021/07/lets-divide-european-union.html

Will the Green Deal destroy the EU’s destiny?

Commentary by Alexander Tomský, The Reference Frame, July 25, 2021

https://motls.blogspot.com/2021/07/will-green-deal-destroy-eus-destiny.html

China to release updated climate plans ‘in near future’: envoy

By Staff, AFP, Aug 3, 2021

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210803-china-to-release-updated-climate-plans-in-near-future-envoy

‘Greenflation’ threatens to derail climate change action

Fossil fuels will be needed in the green transition but vital supplies are being squeezed

By Ruchir Sharma, Financial Times, Aug 2, 2021 [H/t WUWT]

https://www.ft.com/content/49c19d8f-c3c3-4450-b869-50c7126076ee

“Nearly 60 per cent of aluminium comes from China, which recently capped new smelting because of its fat carbon footprint.”

Seeking a Common Ground

Debate: Is Global Warming an Emergency

By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Aug 5, 2021 (Audio)

Link to transcripts: Yes, the Climate Is Changing. No, It’s Not an Emergency | Opinion

By James Taylor, Newsweek, Aug 3, 2021

https://www.newsweek.com/yes-climate-changing-no-its-not-emergency-opinion-1615632

Climate Change Is the Biggest Threat We’re Facing—Period. | Opinion

By Heather Goldstone, Newsweek, Aug 3, 2021

https://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-biggest-threat-were-facingperiod-opinion-1615636

Just because they’re fools?

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 28, 2021

“When people like President Biden say “I believe in science”, and when McParland says “the science” is legitimate, they don’t refer to the process of rational inquiry attempting to disprove hypotheses. They refer to an orthodoxy enforced by scorn and ritual humiliation of dissenters, something ordinary people find distasteful for obvious reasons including its hypocrisy.”

TGIF: How Science Becomes Religion

By Sheldon Richman, The Libertarian Institute, Jul 30, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://libertarianinstitute.org/author/sheldonr/

Science, Policy, and Evidence

GMO Drama: Philippines Approves Golden Rice, Greenpeace Demands Poor Children Go Blind Anyway

By Cameron English, ACSH, July 30, 2021

https://www.acsh.org/news/2021/07/30/gmo-drama-philippines-approves-golden-rice-greenpeace-demands-poor-children-go-blind-anyway-15701

State of the science on western wildfires, forests and climate change

Press Release, University of Washington, Aug 3, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/08/210803175223.htm

Link to paper: Wildfire and climate change adaptation of western North American forests: a case for intentional management

By Paul F. Hessburg, et al. Ecological Application, Aug 2, 2021

https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/eap.2432

From the abstract: “Over the preceding 10 millennia, large areas of wNA (western North America) were already settled and proactively managed with intentional burning by Indigenous tribes.”

We must burn the West to save it

How an ancient American Indian practice can reduce the risk of massive wildfires.

By Umair Irfan, Vox, July 13, 2021

https://www.vox.com/21507802/wildfire-2020-california-indigenous-native-american-indian-controlled-burn-fire

Measurement Issues — Surface

Met Office UK Temperature Series Running Hot

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 5 2021

Unprecedented Heat Wave

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 3, 2021

Unprecedented Heat Wave

“The percent of the US to reach 95F sometime this summer has been the lowest on record.”

Measurement Issues — Atmosphere

UAH Global Temperature Update for July, 2021: +0.20 deg. C

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Aug 2, 2021

UAH Global Temperature Update for July, 2021: +0.20 deg. C

Map: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2021/july2021/202107_Map.png

Graph: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2021/july2021/202107_Bar.png

Changing Weather

Jet streams playing havoc — bringing snow to Brazil

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 1, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Good videos of temperatures and jet stream of the “coldwave” hitting Brazil.]

July 2021 A Month Of Extremes? The Archives Say Otherwise

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 6 2021

2020 Was Another Quiet Tornado Season

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 1, 2021

Extreme Weather In 1971

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 31 2021

German Floods and Climate Change

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Aug 3, 2021

So about those floods

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 28, 2021

Flash Floods Not Getting Worse In England

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 29 2021

Changing Climate

There Were 23 Global Warming Jolts Many Times Faster And Greater Than Modern During The Last Glacial

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 29, 2021

Link to latest paper: The anatomy of past abrupt warmings recorded in Greenland ice

By E. Capron, et al. Nature Communications, Apr 8, 2021

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22241-w

From the paper: “The D-O [Dansgaard-Oeschger event] climate variability is commonly linked to changes in the intensity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), resulting in heat transport changes from the low to the northern high latitudes. However, no consensus exists yet to explain what triggers the abrupt warmings, characterized by Greenland surface temperature increases of 5–16 °C within a few decades to centuries.”

Running out of time in the Holocene…

At some point, the ice sheets want their land back

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 31, 2021

Changing Seas

Great Barrier Reef, RIP

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 28, 2021

The Western Pacific Has Continued Cooling Since The Little Ice Age Ended

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Aug 5, 2021

Link to one study: Sea surface temperature seasonality in the northern South China Sea during the middle Holocene derived from high resolution Sr/Ca ratios of Tridacna shells

By Pengchao Zhou, et al. Quaternary Research, Via Cambridge University Press, June 16, 2021

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/quaternary-research/article/abs/sea-surface-temperature-seasonality-in-the-northern-south-china-sea-during-the-middle-holocene-derived-from-high-resolution-srca-ratios-of-tridacna-shells/DED2FF2A30E43BBEC941547CE9D0A03B

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Alps app tracks treasures melting glaciers expose

By Christophe Vogt, Geneva (AFP), Aug 3, 2021

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Alps_app_tracks_treasures_melting_glaciers_expose_999.html

Polar bear attack in Greenland gratuitously blamed on recent ‘heat wave’

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Aug 4, 2021

A polar bear bit the hand of a member of a film crew near the Danish military base of Daneborg in East Greenland on Monday (2 August) and predictably, this has been blamed on recent warm temperatures in the region.

[SEPP Comment: Apparently the bear was not hungry.]

Polar bear habitat update for end July 2021 compared to previous years

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, July 29, 2021

Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine

Organic food isn’t better for us – or the environment

By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, July 24, 2021

https://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/organic-food-isn-t-better-for-us/

“Surveying the problems of traditional farming in his native India, a friend of mine, Professor Channa Prakash, once remarked: ‘Sure, organic agriculture is sustainable: it sustains poverty and malnutrition.’”

Gulf of Mexico ‘dead zone’ larger than normal, NOAA says

By Celine Castronuovo, The Hill, Aug 8, 2021

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/566184-gulf-of-mexico-dead-zone-larger-than-normal-noaa-says

[SEPP Comment: Feeding marine life elsewhere?]

Meanwhile back at the ranch

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 28, 2021

“In Cows Save the Planet, Judith Schwartz writes (p. 12) ‘Oil, coal, and gas represent one source of emissions, but over time the greater culprit has been agriculture. Since about 1850, twice as much atmospheric carbon dioxide has derived from farming practices as from the burning of fossil fuels (the roles crossed around 1970).”

Money talks

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 28, 2021

“   ‘as a general rule, the sincerity that governments bring to any multilateral agreement is inversely proportional to the number of governments that sign it.’”

Lowering Standards

Met Office’s State of the UK climate report misleads

By David Whitehouse, GWPF, July 29, 2021

“Also the table in the Met Office’s press release detailing 2020 ‘climate extremes’ is as big a non sequitur as one could find in climate science. What happens in one year is not climate.”

AGU – Floods in Germany And China Caused By Global Warming

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 3, 2021

AGU – Floods in Germany And China Caused By Global Warming

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?

Heatwave causes massive melt of Greenland ice sheet

By AFP Staff Writers, Copenhagen (AFP) ,July 31, 2021

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Heatwave_causes_massive_melt_of_Greenland_ice_sheet_999.html

Link to: Polar Portal

By Staff, Danish Arctic research institutions

http://polarportal.dk/en/news/news/

From the article: “The melting of the ice sheets started in 1990 and has accelerated since 2000. The mass loss in recent years is approximately four times greater than it was before 2000, say the researchers at Polar Portal.”

[SEPP Comment: The article is typical yellow journalism. The data started in 1990-91, so the articles states: “The melting of the ice sheets started in 1990.” Melting began only after data collection started? GRACE was launched in 2002.]

Scientists fear a critical Atlantic Ocean system might collapse, triggering ‘extreme cold’ and sea level rise

Brigid Kennedy, Contributing Writer, Yahoo News, Aug 5, 2021 [Bernie Kepshire]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-fear-critical-atlantic-ocean-214801130.html

Link to paper: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation [AMO]

By Niklas Boer, Nature Climate Change, Aug 5, 2021

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01097-4

[SEPP Comment: If the AMO stops, ice will accumulate on land in the Arctic regions, and this will lead to higher sea levels?]

Is You House Ready For Sub-Tropical Britain?

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 30 2021

[SEPP Comment: “Pulp journalism” from the UK Telegraph.]

Summer gets it

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 4, 2021

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

Debate ends… again

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 4, 2021

“In the Guardian Ed Miliband, whose tenure as head of Britain’s Labour Party was a spectacular display of failure to persuade anyone, says ‘our biggest enemy is no longer climate denial but climate delay.”

Extreme Melt In Greenland

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 3, 2021

Extreme Melt In Greenland

Fire freezes planet, plume at 11

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 4, 2021

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Phony Climate Trends: Alarmists Caught Hiding Large Quantities Of Historical Data

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 28, 2021

“A German YouTube video reveals a number of charts prepared by Tony Heller illustrating how climate alarmists hide data in order to produce an alarming impression of the globe’s climate.”

Removing The 1940s Blip

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 5, 2021

https://realclimatescience.com/2021/08/removing-the-1940s-blip-2/

[SEPP Comment: Can’t have warming in the 1940s!]

2012 All Over Again!

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 6 2021

This just in: your house is not on fire

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 4, 2021

“But also ‘This section includes data analysis conducted by the Resource Watch team within the World Resources Institute (WRI), a global research organization.’ Which is definitely taking sides, because the WRI says of itself ‘With focused effort and bold action, we can drive systemic change that will improve lives, drive economic growth, reduce inequity, and ensure the natural world can thrive.’”

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda

Media Ignore The Science & Peddle Climate Propaganda

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 1, 2021

Questioning European Green

GWPF calls for pause and rethink of unaffordable Net Zero plans

Press Release, GWPF, Aug 6, 2021

“In fact, natural gas prices in Europe are more than three times as high ($13/MMBtu) as they are in the US ($4/MMBtu) where fracking is allowed and shale gas is cheap and abundant.”

Lord Lawson warns Boris Johnson over real costs of Net Zero

Press Release, GWPF, Aug 2, 2021

Link to paper: The Workable Alternative to Net Zero: A plan for cleaner, reliable and affordable energy

By John Constable and Capell Aris, GWPF, 2021

How YOU are going to pay for Boris’s Net Zero Green dream – COMMENT

By Benny Peiser, Express, UK, Via GWPF, Aug 4, 2021

What is the National Food Strategy and how could it change the way England eats?

By Kelly Parsons, University of Hertfordshire and David Barling, University of Hertfordshire,, July 25, 2021

Germany Remains A Coal Hungry Polluter, Despite “Green Agenda”

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 5 2021

Forest Degradation A Major Climatic Warming Driver, Study Finds. CO2-Induced Tree Growth Cools?

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 30, 2021

Questioning Green Elsewhere

Renewable Isn’t Always Green

By Brenda Shaffer, Real Clear Energy, Aug 2, 2021

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/08/02/renewable_isnt_always_green_788231.html

Green Jobs

Boston Ties “Green” Jobs to the Pandemic and Future “Climate Shocks”

By Gordon Evans, WUWT, Aug 3, 2021

“I’ve been an environmental professional for over 40 years and have yet to figure out what is a ‘green’ job, unless it is one guaranteed to lose money and fail or be kept afloat by other people’s money. Jobs are jobs. They have no color. Either they contribute productively, or they are a burden. If you have any ideas, you can help out those poor, woke Bostonians at the RFI link shown above.”

Funding Issues

Your Tax Dollars At Work

By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Aug 5, 2021

The Political Games Continue

Energy and Climate Policies, Cronyism Don’t Belong in Bloated Senate Infrastructure Bill

By Katie Tubb, the Daily Signal, Aug 03, 2021

“Perhaps most significantly, Section 11403 requires states to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from highway transportation by developing state “carbon-reduction strategy” plans that must be approved by the Department of Transportation and updated at least every four years.”

Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes

How much is enough?

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 4, 2021

“There is, or was, widespread agreement on the use of carbon pricing to fight GHG emissions.”

“How high should carbon taxes be to overcome the inelasticity of demand? Because if you don’t know, or won’t say, or those long words make your head hurt, you’re no use to anyone.”

Subsidies and Mandates Forever

Offshore power ‘will fail without subsidies’

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 26 2021

EPA and other Regulators on the March

EPA announces new members of science board after firing Trump appointees

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Aug 2, 2021

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/565996-epa-announces-new-members-of-science-board-after-firing-trump

Save the Penguins!

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Aug 4, 2021

Link to: Executive Order on Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad

By Staff, The White House, Jan 27, 2021

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/27/executive-order-on-tackling-the-climate-crisis-at-home-and-abroad/

“’The decisions made by policymakers today and during the next few decades will determine the fate of the emperor penguin.’ During an announcement that US FWS was proposing listing the Emperor Penguin under the protections of the Endangered Species Act.”

[SEPP Comment: They are really endangered in Florida!]

Energy Issues – Non-US

German Wind Power Consumption Plummets 20% In First Half 2021… Coal Power Consumption Jumps 38%!

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 27, 2021

“The reason for the steep drop, according to the findings, was due to unfavorable weather conditions. ‘This year, especially in the first quarter, the wind was particularly still and the sun output was low.’”

Power Grid Expert Warns: “Signs Being Ignored” As Europe’s Grid Teeters On The Brink

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 3, 2021

“It was the second major disruption in the last 7 months.”

Energy Issues — US

Does the Infrastructure Bill Spell Doom for Residential Natural Gas?

By Ben Lieberman, Real Clear Energy, Aug 04, 2021

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/08/04/does_the_infrastructure_bill_spell_doom_for_residential_natural_gas_788622.html

Pokalsky, Borlick: Capacity Markets Now Essential in Texas (central planning rethink)

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Aug 5, 2021

https://www.masterresource.org/texas-blackout-2021/puct-ercot-capacity-market-pokalsky/

“’I have stated earlier that the ERCOT market’s reliance on scarcity pricing did not foresee an environment with high penetration of zero-marginal cost resources. Back in 2005 I generically simulated an energy-only market to demonstrate how scarcity pricing would work. I never anticipated the mass introduction of renewables at that time.’  – Robert Borlick,”

Ten Years Ago Today In Texas

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 4, 2021

Ten Years Ago Today In Texas

“Texas has the most wind power in the country, but the wind does not blow during the summer.”

Return of King Coal?

China Will Restart Coal Mines Including in Xinjiang as Power Demand Surges

By Staff, Bloomberg News, Aug 5, 2021,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-05/china-to-restart-coal-mines-amid-climate-versus-growth-debate

Eskom’s Medupi Power Station’s last unit achieves commercial operation [South Aferica]

By Jessica Casey, World Coal, Aug 3, 2021 [H/t Dennis Ambler]

https://www.worldcoal.com/power/03082021/eskoms-medupi-power-stations-last-unit-achieves-commercial-operation/

“The Medupi Power Station uses direct dry-cooling systems due to the water scarcity in the Lephalale area, and is the fourth largest coal-fired plant and the largest dry-cooled power station in the world.”

Nuclear Energy and Fears

Clean, Green and Absolutely Sustainable

By Walter Starck, Quadrant, Aug 3, 2021

Fuel Loading Only Major Milestone Left for Vogtle Unit 3 Nuclear Project

By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, July 30, 2021

Problems Mount Up For EDF Nuclear Power

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 1, 2021

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

A Little Arithmetic: The Costs Of A Solar-Powered Grid Without Fossil Fuel Back-up

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, July 29, 2021

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2021-7-29-a-little-arithmetic-the-costs-of-non-fossil-fuel-back-up-for-solar-power

[SEPP Comment: A few calculations showing that those claiming solar can be fossil fuel free in California are in fantasy land.]

Baden-Württemberg Government Announces Plans To Clear Cut State Forest, Build 1000 Turbines

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 6, 2021

Denton, TX: Grid Reliability Sinks Renewables

By Wayne Lusvardi, Master Resource, Aug 4, 2021

“The promise of cheap, clean renewable power without disclosing the true cost of reliability is an example of Pareto’s Principle: 80 percent of the consequences come from 20 of the cause. The cost-avoidance of reliability will not be known until an extreme weather event.”

Intermittent solar and wind power can DISPLACE coal but cannot REPLACE it

By Rafe Champion, Rite-On! No Date [H/t Jo Nova]

The levelised cost of floating offshore wind

By Andrew Montford, Global Warming Policy Forum, July 29, 2021

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

1.2-GW Dedicated Hydrogen-Fired Power Plant Starts Taking Shape in Texas

By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Aug 3, 2021

“Hydrogen is already widely used in industrial processes, including by a number of Entergy Texas’s large industrial customers in Southeast Texas, an area characterized by petroleum refineries and chemical manufacturers, the company noted. In Beaumont, and nearby Houston and Freeport, 48 plants already extract hydrogen from natural gas, producing 3.6 metric tons of hydrogen a year for refineries and industrial plants, according to market analytics company Prescient & Strategic Intelligence.”

Clues to the levelised cost of tidal stream

By Andrew Montford, Global Warming policy Forum, July 30, 2021

Hydrogen Boilers Greater Risk Than Gas

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 5, 2021

“Hydrogen more explosive than gas? Who would have thought!”

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage

Victoria’s Big Battery

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 31 2021

The Tesla battery fire burned for longer than it operated for

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 3, 2021

See link immediately above.

Communities Benefit from Microgrid Milestones

By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Aug 2, 2021

“The town of Onslow, located in the state of Western Australia, was powered for about 80 minutes solely by solar-plus-storage thanks to advanced microgrid technology that determined the best time and conditions to draw energy only from the town’s solar resources supported by a battery energy storage system (BESS).”

[SEPP Comment: 80 minutes does not a day make.]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

You Were Warned: Automakers Team Up With Biden To Force Electric Cars On Consumers

By I & I Editorial Board, Aug 6, 2021

“In other words, massive taxpayer subsidies. Biden wants to dump $174 billion – with a B – to pay for subsidies, grants, and tax incentives to car buyers, to build electric charging stations, and to replace the entire federal fleet of cars and trucks, including all those used by the already financially desperate U.S. Postal Service.”

Carbon Schemes

Carbon Capture fails again: Chevron spends $600 a ton to bury fertilizer under the NW Shelf

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 25, 2021

“Stuffing a useful gas into holes under the ocean is harder than they thought”

California Dreaming

California Electricity Woes: More Intervention, Higher Prices, More Emissions (the back side of wind and solar)

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Aug 3, 2021

Newsom issues emergency proclamation to free up extra sources of power

By Rob Nikolewski, San Diego Union-Tribune, July 30, 2021

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/energy-green/story/2021-07-30/newsom-issues-emergency-proclamation-to-free-up-extra-sources-of-power

Link to: Proclamation of a State of Emergency

By Staff, Executive Department, State of California, July 30, 2021

The Triumphant March Toward 100% “Renewable” Electricity: Germany and California

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, July 28, 2021

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2021-7-28-the-triumphant-march-toward-100-renewable-electricity-germany-and-california

Health, Energy, and Climate

Mainstream Media Silent on New Study Showing Deaths Associated with Temperature Extremes Declining

By Staff, Icecap, July 31, 2021

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/mainstream_media_silent_on_new_study_showing_deaths_associated_with_tempera/

Oh Mann!

DC Superior Court Rules in Favor of CEI in Michael Mann Lawsuit

By Kent Lassman, CEI, July 22, 2021

https://cei.org/news_releases/dc-superior-court-rules-in-favor-of-cei-in-michael-mann-lawsuit/

You’re Once, Twice, Three Times a Loser…

Michael E Mann, Loser (Again) (and Again)

By Mark Steyn, Steyn on line, July 26, 2021 [H/t WUWT]

https://www.steynonline.com/11508/youre-once-twice-three-times-a-loser

Other News that May Be of Interest

Time To Assume That Health Research Is Fraudulent Until Proven Otherwise?

By Richard Smith, British Medical Journal (BMJ), July 5, 2021 [H/t WUWT]

There Are Far Better Ways to Clean the Environment Than Taxpayer Handouts

By Ross Marchand, Real Clear Energy, Aug 05, 2021

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/08/05/there_are_far_better_ways_to_clean_the_environment_than_taxpayer_handouts_788602.html

Part 3 of 3

What Gives The Ocean Its Wonderful Smell? A Vile Chemical

By Josh Bloom, ACSH, July 20, 2021

https://www.acsh.org/news/2021/07/20/what-gives-ocean-its-wonderful-smell-vile-chemical-15667

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE

In The 1970s Climate Modification Proposals Included Purposely Melting Arctic Sea Ice With Black Soot

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Aug 2, 2021

“In his 1975 book The Genesis Strategy, the late climate scientist Dr. Stephen Schneider reviewed contemporary climate modification proposals to reduce the severe 1960s and 1970s droughts, floods, and extreme weather…which were at that time associated with the ongoing global cooling.”

Only Six Countries To Survive Global Warming

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 4, 2021

Only Six Countries To Survive Global Warming

New Zealand, Tasmania, Ireland, Iceland, UK, and US and Canada (tie).

Saved by a pyroclastic-winter? Man-made Mega wildfires cause climate cooling

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 30, 2021

Your CO2-laden breath is killing people…science says so! STUDY: ‘Three Americans create enough carbon emissions to kill one person’ – Claim: ‘For every 4,434 metric tons of CO2 produced, one person globally will die’

By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, Aug 4, 2021

ARTICLES

1. A New National Climate Army

Democrats want to pay young Americans to tell you how to behave.

By The Editorial Board, WSJ, July 26, 2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/civilian-climate-corps-democrats-ed-markey-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-sunrise-movement-evergreen-action-11627337295?mod=hp_opin_pos_1

TWTW Summary: The editorial begins:

“As the U.S. recovers from a pandemic, with workers in services and manufacturing in short supply across the economy, here’s what no one sensible thinks America urgently needs: a huge new federal Civilian Climate Corps.

“Yet that’s exactly what Democrats want to create as part of their plan to expand government into every corner of American life. It isn’t enough to lecture Americans about the supposed perils of climate change. Now they also want to tax you and other Americans to pay your children to spend years lecturing you.

“President Joe Biden has requested $10 billion for the climate shock troops in his American Jobs Plan. Like so many other ideas in this Administration, the idea comes from the Democratic left, specifically the Sunrise Movement and Evergreen Action. Their idea was adopted by New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey, who have proposed a Climate Corps that employs 1.5 million Americans over five years.

“The precedent is FDR’s Civilian Conservation Corps, which paid Americans to work when the jobless rate was more than 20% in the Depression. But Sunrise says that program had ‘deep flaws, including exclusionary racist and sexist practices of hiring almost solely white men and its nonconsensual development on stolen Native American land.’ Evergreen Action says the Climate Corps would ‘confront the interlocking crises of climate change, environmental and racial injustice, and economic inequality.’

“If that mission sounds grandiose, you’re understating things. ‘The climate crisis is impacting every aspect of our lives,’ so ‘the only way we are going to fully combat it is if we fully transform every aspect of our society and economy as we know it,’ says Ellen Sciales, a Sunrise spokesperson.

“The White House says the Climate Corps would ‘put a new, diverse generation of Americans to work conserving our public lands and waters, bolstering community resilience, and advancing environmental justice.’ Democrats envision a Corps that’s part green-jobs program, part behavioral hectoring squad, part social-justice brigade, and part union-recruitment effort.”

The editorial concludes with support by other politicians.

***********************

2. How Science Lost the Public’s Trust

From climate to Covid, politics and hubris have disconnected scientific institutions from the philosophy and method that ought to guide them.

By Tunku Varadarajan, WSJ, July 23, 2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-china-media-lab-leak-climate-ridley-biden-censorship-coronavirus-11627049477?mod=trending_now_opn_pos1

TWTW Summary, Discussed in the “This Week” section.

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Health

Epidemiologist Larry Sensible on Delta Variation, Vaccinations

The pandemic is not going to end anytime soon – with only a small portion of the world’s population vaccinated against Covid-19, a well-known epidemiologist told CNBC.

Dr. Larry Brilliant, an epidemiologist who was part of the World Health Organization team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the Delta variant was “perhaps the most contagious virus” of all time.

In the past few months, the USA, India and China as well as other countries in Europe, Africa and Asia have grappled with a highly transmissible delta variant of the virus.

The WHO declared Covid-19 a global pandemic last March – after the disease, which first appeared in China in late 2019, spread around the world.

The good news is that vaccines – especially those with messenger RNA technology and those from Johnson & Johnson – exist against the Delta variant, Brilliant told CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia on Friday.

If we don’t all vaccinate in over 200 countries, there will always be new variants.

Larry Brilliant

Epidemiologist

Yet only 15% of the world’s population are vaccinated and more than 100 countries have vaccinated less than 5% of their population, noted Brilliant.

“I think we’re closer to the beginning than the end [of the pandemic]and that’s not because the variant we’re looking at will last that long, “said Brilliant, who is now the founder and CEO of Pandefense Advisory.

“If we don’t all vaccinate in over 200 countries, there will always be new varieties,” he said, predicting that the coronavirus will eventually become a “forever virus” like influenza.

Probability of the ‘Supervariant’

Brilliant said its models of the Covid outbreak in San Francisco and New York predict an “inverted V-shaped epidemic curve”. That means that the infections are increasing very quickly, but also decreasing quickly, he said.

If the prediction turns out to be true, it means that the delta variant is spreading so quickly that “basically the candidates are running out” to become infected, explained Brilliant.

There appears to be a similar pattern in the UK and India, where the prevalence of the Delta variant has declined from recent highs.

But I’m warning people that this is the Delta variant and we haven’t run out of Greek letters yet, so there might be more to come.

Larry Brilliant

Epidemiologist

Daily reported cases in the UK – a seven-day moving average – fell from a high of around 47,700 cases on July 21 to around 26,000 cases on Thursday, according to statistics from the online database Our World in Data.

In India, the seven-day moving average of daily reported cases has remained below 50,000 since the end of June – well below the high of more than 390,000 a day in May, the data showed.

“That may mean that in one country this is more of a six month phenomenon than a two year phenomenon. But I’m warning people that this is the Delta variant and we haven’t run out of Greek letters so there may be more to do, ”he said.

The epidemiologist said there was a small chance that a “super variant” would show up and vaccines would not work against it. While these things are difficult to predict, he added, there is a non-zero probability, which means it cannot be ruled out.

“It is such a catastrophic event, should it happen we must do everything we can to prevent it,” said Brilliant. “And that means everyone will be vaccinated – not just in your neighborhood, not just in your family, not just in your country, but around the world.”

Covid vaccine booster

Some countries with relatively high vaccination rates, such as the US and Israel, are planning to booster their populations. Others, like Haiti, have only recently secured their first doses of vaccine.

WHO has urged wealthy countries to suspend Covid vaccine boosters to allow low-income countries to vaccinate their populations.

But in addition to booster vaccinations in countries with lower vaccination rates, Brilliant said, a group of people need a booster vaccination “immediately” – those 65 years and older who were fully vaccinated more than six months ago, but have weakened immune systems.

“It’s this category of people that we’ve seen create multiple mutations as the virus passes through their bodies,” the epidemiologist said.

“So I would say these people should get a third dose right away, a booster shot – as soon as the vaccines are being moved to those countries that haven’t had a very high chance of buying them or having access to them, those two things are about the same, “he added.

– CNBC’s Rich Mendez contributed to this report.