Month: September 2023

From Polar Bear Science

Susan Crockford

Just a heads-up that this week, PBS in North America will broadcast the “polar” episode of a new documentary called “Evolution Earth.” In my area, it’s scheduled for Wednesday, September 27 at 10:00 PM. It remains to be seen whether this is really about evolution or (given those involved in its production) simply more climate change propaganda similar to that promoted by Attenborough, but I intend to watch and report back.

About the Show: “Evolution Earth embarks on a global expedition to reveal the animals keeping pace with a planet changing at superspeed. Heading out across the globe to distant wilds and modern urban environments, five episodes track how animals are moving, using ingenuity to adapt their behavior, and even evolving in unexpected ways.

…We follow heart-warming tales of resilience that redefine our understanding of evolution, and hint at how nature can show us a path towards a sustainable future for Planet Earth. The series is narrated by Dr. Shane Campbell-Staton, who guides us through each episode in an intimate narrative style, drawing on his background as an evolutionary biologist.”

Episode 4 | Ice “At the planet’s frozen extremes, shifts in animal movement and behavior reveal vital information about our future world. Examine polar bears in the Arctic, penguins in Antarctica and other animals surviving in icy worlds.“

Find tips for watching outside the US here.

What to expect

Will evolutionary principles prevail? Hard to say but here are some hints. The film is produced by an outfit called “Passion Planet.” I have not seen anything else they have done in their 20 year history in the business but their name does not give me much confidence that the presentation of unadulterated science is their primary goal.

On top of that, the director of the “Ice” episode is Charlotte Lathane. Her name rings alarm bells for me because she was the director/producer of that cringe-worthy Attenborough-narrated BBC film aimed at scaring the pants off viewers, “Extinction: The Facts.“

I wrote about this film in Fallen Icon (Crockford 2022), edited a bit for brevity:

It featured the so-called Sixth Mass Extinction that had been a WWF hobbyhorse since 2016 and one Attenborough had eagerly climbed aboard from the beginning (Doyle 2021; Westcott 2016). However, this concept has few supporters and many critics: it is not something serious scientists espouse (Lomborg 2001; Steele 2013).

The film got well-deserved criticism as well as the usual, almost automatic, raves (Clark 2020; Jones 2020). However, Extinction: The Facts was different from the others in one important respect: it was the first time the Covid-19 pandemic entered Attenborough’s narrative.

Blaming the emergence of Covid-19 on declining biodiversity turned out to be the companion to a bizarre notion that climate change itself had been largely responsible for the Covid-19 epidemic, which Attenborough and the BBC now seemed to be actively promoting. This unsubstantiated claim provided the foundation for increasing pressure on nations and their citizens to ensure that a global agreement to deal with climate change was reached in 2020.

I’ve mentioned before that the story of polar bear evolution cannot be told with a thorough and rational discussion of natural climate change (Crockford 2023). I admit I don’t have high hopes but it will be interesting to see what approach this documentary takes on the critical issues of evolution and adaptation of polar bears.

References

Clark, R. 2020. ‘What David Attenborough’s ‘Extinction: The Facts’ didn’t tell you’. The Spectator Magazine (UK), 14 September. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-david-attenborough-s-extinction-the-facts-didn-t-tell-you

Crockford, S.J. 2022. Fallen Icon: Sir David Attenborough and the Walrus Deception. Amazon KDP, Victoria.

Crockford, S.J. 2023. Polar Bear Evolution: A Model for How New Species Arise. Amazon KDP, Victoria.

Doyle, J. 2021. ‘Earth is doomed, probably, says David Attenborough in Extinction: The Facts’. The Globe and Mail (Canada), 30 March. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/television/article-earth-is-doomed-probably-says-david-attenborough-in-extinction-the/

Jones, J.P.G. 2020. ‘‘Extinction: The Facts’: Attenborough’s new documentary is surprisingly radical’. The Conversation, 14 September. https://theconversation.com/extinction-the-facts-attenboroughs-new-documentary-is-surprisingly-radical-146127

Lomborg, B. 2001. The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World. Cambridge University Press, New York. pg 249-257.

Steele, J. 2013. Landscapes and Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Scepticism. CreateSpace Publishing.

Westcott, B. 2016. ‘Sixth mass extinction? Two-thirds of wildlife may be gone by 2020: WWF’. CNN, 28 October. https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/26/world/wild-animals-disappear-report-wwf/index.html

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Caves were some of humanity’s first shelters. Who knows what our distant ancestors were thinking as they sought refuge there, huddling and cooking meat over a fire, maybe drawing animals on the walls. Caves protected our ancient ancestors from the elements, and from predators and rivals, back when sticks, stones, furs and fire were our only technologies.

So there’s a poetic parallel between early humans and us. We’re visiting the Moon again, and lunar caves could shelter us the way caves sheltered our ancestors on Earth.

On the Moon, astronauts will need protection from a different set of hazards. They’ll have to contend with cosmic and solar radiation, meteorites, wild temperature swings, and even impact ejecta. The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) has found hundreds of lunar ‘skylights,’ locations where a lava tube’s ceiling has collapsed, making a natural opening into the tube. It’s hard to tell without exploring, but lava tubes several hundred meters in diameter could exist on the Moon. That’s a lot of room to work with, and they could provide the shelter astronauts will need. The idea is to build a base inside a lunar lava tube, where astronauts gain additional protection from the thick rock ceiling overhead.

China is considering the idea now, just like others before them. Lunar lava caves might be a resource too valuable to ignore.

Lava tubes are also called pyroducts. They formed when lava flowing across the surface of the Moon began to cool. The top of the flowing lava formed a hardened crust, but the molten lava kept flowing underneath it and eventually drained, leaving an empty tube. They’re here on Earth as well.

This is the entrance to a lava tube on Hawaii’s Big Island. Image Credit: By dronepicr – Lava tube Big island Hawaii, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=75616740

Scientists aren’t sure when lunar volcanism ended. It may have been as far back as one billion years ago, though some evidence shows there was small-scale volcanism in the last 50 million years. In either case, these lava tubes are ancient and untouched.

On the Moon, astronauts will have to contend with the temperature swings. Earth’s natural satellite is a world of temperature extremes. One side of the Moon is in direct sunlight for half of the time, and surface temperatures reach as high as 127 Celsius (260 F.) The side that’s shrouded in darkness sinks as low as -173 C (-280 F.) That wild temperature swing makes it challenging to work on the lunar surface, and to engineer and build equipment that can be effective in such a large range. Lava tubes provide a natural steady-temperature environment that can’t be found elsewhere on the Moon.

Radiation is also hazardous on the lunar surface. It can be as much as 150 times more powerful than on Earth’s surface. That’s deadly, but in lunar caves astronauts would be sheltered by several metres of overhead rock. That’s a thick enough barrier to provide effective protection.

The risk of impacts and impact debris is much smaller, but it has to be accounted for. Obviously, lava tubes provide shelter from small impacts.

Different teams of scientists from different countries and agencies have studied the idea of using lava tubes as shelter. At a recent conference in China, Zhang Chongfeng from the Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology presented a study into the underground world of lava tubes. Chinese researchers did fieldwork in Chinese lava tubes to understand how to use them on the Moon.

According to Zhang, there’s enough similarity between lunar and Earthly lava tubes for one to be an analogue of the other. It starts with their two types of entrances, vertical and sloped. Both worlds have both types.

Most of what we’ve found on the Moon are vertical-opening tubes, but that may be because of our overhead view. The openings are called skylights, where the ceiling has collapsed and left a debris accumulation on the floor of the tube directly below it. Entering through these requires either flight or some type of vertical lift equipment.

Sloped entrances make entry and exit much easier. It’s possible that rovers could simply drive into them, though some debris would probably need to be cleared. According to Zhang, this is the preferred entrance that makes exploration easier. China is prioritizing lunar lava tubes at Mare Tranquillitatis (Sea of Tranquility) and Mare Fecunditatis (Sea of Fecundity) for exploration.

Spectacular high Sun view of the Mare Tranquillitatis pit crater revealing boulders on an otherwise smooth floor. The 100-meter pit may provide access to a lunar lava tube. Image Credit: By NASA/GSFC/Arizona State University – http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA13518, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=54853313

China is planning a robotic system that can explore caves like the one in Mare Tranquillitatis. The primary probe will have either wheels or feet and will be built to adapt to challenging terrain and to overcome obstacles. It’ll also have a scientific payload.

Auxiliary vehicles can separate from the main probe to perform more reconnaissance and help with communications and “energy support.” They could be diversified so the mission can meet different challenges. They might include multi-legged crawling probes, rolling probes, and even bouncing probes. These auxiliary vehicles would also have science instruments to study the lunar dust, radiation, and the presence of water ice in the tubes.

China is also planning a flight-capable robot that could find its way through lava tubes autonomously using microwave and laser radars.

China’s future plan, after successful exploration, is a crewed base. It would be a long-term underground research base in one of the lunar lava tubes, with a support center for energy and communication at the tube’s entrance. The terrain would be landscaped, and the base would include both residential and research facilities inside the tube.

China doesn’t have the same enthusiasm for information-sharing that an organization like NASA has, so details are more difficult to uncover. But there’s no question that China’s space activities are ascendant right now, with multiple successful missions completed, some still in progress, and future ones planned. In the Spring of 2023, China announced plans to start building a Moon base by 2028, though it’s not clear if that announcement referred to a lunar lava tube base. That seems to contradict the most recent statement saying that China plans to “realize manned lunar landing by 2030.”

But regardless of when they start, China seems committed to the idea. Ding Lieyun, a top scientist at Huazhong University of Science and Technology, told the China Science Daily that “Eventually, building habitation beyond the Earth is essential not only for all humanity’s quest for space exploration but also for China’s strategic needs as a space power.” This language almost exactly mirrors the language used by NASA when talking about its Artemis program.

In preparation for more lunar missions and an eventual base, Chinese researchers have studied both Mare Tranquillitatis and Mare Fecunditatis. In 2022 a team of scientists published a study on Mare Fecunditatis’ volcanic features in the journal Remote Sensing.

On the left is an LRO image of a pit in the center of Mare Fecunditatis, and on the right is a context map showing the pit with a yellow arrow. This is just one of the pits begging to be explored. Image Credit: NASA/LRO

Mare Fecunditatis is rich in volcanic features, including lava tubes. The 2022 paper pointed out that no mission to the Moon’s surface has travelled more than 40 km (25 mi.) But that will change in the future. The researchers behind this work propose a five-year long mission similar to NASA’s Mars rover missions. In five years, a Chinese rover could explore Mare Fecunditatis during a 1400 km (870 mi) traverse. By studying volcanic features like lava tubes, domes, and rilles, they would develop a more comprehensive understanding of the Moon’s regional geology. They may also select a site for a lunar base.

This image shows a proposed 1400 km traverse across the Moon’s Mare Fecunditatis, a region rich in volcanic features, including lava tubes and the pit craters that could provide access. Image Credit: Zhao et al. 2022.

China is not the first to wonder about lava tubes as bases. The idea has been around for a long time. But before long, China and other spacefaring nations will be in a position to explore them, and to begin to get serious about building one.

Space exploration and politics are intertwined, and in China, they’re even more intertwined than other countries. The inner machinations of both are sometimes hidden behind an opaque wall, and details aren’t always readily available. It’s as if people are afraid of saying the wrong thing. But China’s intentions are clear, and if past is prologue, they’ll get to the Moon and build a base.

Maybe some of the Chinese taikonauts who eventually shelter in these lunar caves will spend a moment or two thinking about our ancient ancestors and how caves sheltered them. Maybe one of them will be the first human to make marks on the wall of a lunar lava tube.

Then one day, after humanity fades away, future alien explorers might find these marks and ponder their meaning.

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Dr Euan Mearns

Letter to the Editor published in the Aberdeen Press and Journal on 22 Sep 2023 as:

Public need to be able to scrutinise the true costs on net-zero energy policy

Sir, – Reading your letters pages in recent months, there seems to be significant anger within local populations at the implementation of Scottish and UK energy policies, and justifiably so. Here, I try to cast some light on the origins of that anger. In the recent past, sound electrical engineering design dictated that electricity generation centres were located close to the population centres where the electricity was to be consumed. This was because transmitting electricity through high voltage alternating current (AC) lines results in losses that had to be paid for by the consumer, and the lines themselves were expensive to build and scarred the landscape. In the recent past the driving motives of politicians, planners and industry was to optimise the service provided to constituents and consumers.

During the early days of “the transition” renewables initiatives were sold to the public based on the proposed benefits of distributed as opposed to centralised generation (coal, gas and nuclear) where members of the public were encouraged, via generous subsidies, to install roof top solar to generate their own electricity at home. If you were lucky enough to own a farm, then you could generate your own power using a small wind turbine. Honourable goals perhaps, where wealthy property owners could harvest subsidies that were paid for by the whole population, who on average were much less well-off.

What we now have instead are vast centralised wind and solar power stations distributed outside of population centres, and quite distant to the eventual market for the third-rate power that is being produced. This is the exact opposite of the original proposals for distributed power located within population centres. In January 2022, The Crown Estate Scotland alone, licensed 17 vast offshore wind projects amounting to 25GW peak power capacity that may deliver next to nothing when the wind does not blow. Some individual projects are rated at 3 GW. These individually represent the equivalent of 3 nuclear power stations located in the middle of the North Sea, fifty miles from shore and several hundred miles from the eventual market for this power that is likely to lie somewhere in the Midlands of England. What politicians, and members of the public need to understand, is that these giant power stations will need 25GW of dedicated power lines to connect them to their market – where are these power lines going to go and who is going to pay for them? The protest banners that now line the A90 are a mere shadow of what is planned for the future.

So, what about exports to Europe? The fantasy of local politicians is that Scotland will become some kind of renewable power house, exporting electricity to England and beyond. In 2010, the UK had 2.5 GW interconnector capacity with the rest of Europe. By 2021, this had grown to 7.5 GW. In that period, electricity exports to Europe were effectively flat. On the other hand, net electricity imports in 2010 were 2.7 TWh. By 2021 these had grown to 24.6 TWh (UK government statistics). A 3-fold increase in interconnector capacity has led to a 9-fold increase in net imports. The explanation is quite simple. The UK has closed down significant amounts of dispatchable coal and nuclear generating capacity creating supply vulnerability when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine. Conversely, there is a high degree of correlation in wind supply between the UK and Europe and this means that when the UK generates a surplus, Europe has a surplus too. The UK surplus has no market resulting in high constraint payments paid for by already hard-pressed consumers.

Yet another frailty of the current strategy is the need to maintain significant amounts of dispatchable generating capacity to cover supply when renewables fail. In effect, 20 GW of combined cycle gas turbines will have to be maintained to back up the 25 GW of proposed offshore wind. In addition, gas import facilities (pipelines and liquefied natural gas) will need to be maintained for occasional use. The high cost of maintaining backup supplies is normally ignored when the levelized cost of wind and solar power is reported. The proponents of the net zero strategy seem content to pile these costs on to hard pressed consumers while politicians seem content to blame the high cost of energy on Vladimir Putin.

I urge politicians in Holyrood and Westminster to suspend all new large-scale wind and solar developments and grid expansions until a comprehensive analysis and report on the real environmental and economic costs of current net-zero energy policy is presented to the public for scrutiny. This report must be based on sound thermodynamic and economic principles and not upon wishful thinking and net zero dogma that appears to underpin much of current energy policy.

Dr Euan Mearns

Aberdeen

Dr. Eaun Mearns is a member of the CO2 Coalition and has a BSc (hons) in geology and a Ph.D. in isotope geochemistry both from the University of Aberdeen, Scotland.

This commentary was first published in the Aberdeen Press and Journal on September 22,  2023.

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