Categories
Sport

Damian Lillard debuts with 39 factors, closes out Bucks’ win

  • Jamal Collier, ESPNOct 27, 2023, 01:23 AM ET

MILWAUKEE — Ever since the Bucks acquired Damian Lillard in a blockbuster trade one month ago, they have encouraged their newest superstar to be himself on the floor, urging him especially to take control late in games.

So, Lillard’s Bucks debut Thursday night played out exactly as the team had envisioned. He scored 39 points — a record for points in a first game with the franchise — including the team’s final 11 points in the fourth quarter to help Milwaukee seal a 118-117 season-opening victory over the Philadelphia 76ers.

“I’ve had enough conversations with guys, especially with Giannis [Antetokounmpo], that I came in knowing what was expected of me,” Lillard said after the game. “They’re encouraging me to be the person to take control, make decisions and decide what’s going to happen in those moments.”

Milwaukee trailed 104-102 with four minutes remaining when Lillard took over. He scored 14 points over the final four minutes, nearly matching the Sixers’ output (15 points) by himself.

Lillard put the game all but out of reach with a 30-foot step-back 3-pointer over Kelly Oubre Jr. with 1:13 remaining, icing the game in his signature fashion.

“That’s a look that I’ll take seven days a week,” Lillard said. “That was a comfort shot.”

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“At the end of the day, he had the hot hand and you’ve got to keep on feeding it. You’ve got to keep going with what works,” said Antetokounmpo, who finished with 23 points and 13 rebounds.

“A guy that can make plays down the stretch. A guy that’s going to lead the team. A guy that’s going to make shots, put us in the right position. A guy that’s going to be aggressive throughout the whole game, create for himself. He was unbelievable today.”

The Bucks have been one of the NBA’s best teams in recent years, winning more regular-season games than any other team since the start of the 2018-19 season. But their crunch-time offense has never been a strength — they were 18th in the NBA in offensive rating during clutch time in the 2022-23 season.

Consider Lillard’s performance down the stretch Thursday night compared to the fourth quarter of Milwaukee’s Game 5 loss to the Miami Heat that ended last season for the Bucks, when the entire team combined for 16 points during the fourth quarter.

“I’m going to do what I do, and I want you to do what you do; you close out games,” Lillard recalled Antetokounmpo telling him in one of their first conversations after the trade. “We know that’s what you do, and that’s what we need you to do here.”

This was the first time in Lillard’s 11-year career that he did not begin the season with the Portland Trail Blazers, a reality that he said still feels odd to him. For years, Lillard had gotten used to coming to the arena for game days and knowing everyone working on the staff and even recognizing longtime season-ticket holders in the stands.

He admitted Thursday’s opener felt almost like a road game to him as he still adjusts to his new environment.

“But I came here to be a part of winning,” he said. “I’m starting to settle in just by how I’ve been embraced.”

Once the game tipped off, Lillard noticed another difference, but this one was a positive development. For years in Portland, he felt like he needed to shoulder all the responsibility — calling the plays, calling out what’s happening on the court. But early on in the first quarter, he noticed veterans such as Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez directing traffic, and possessions where he could just feed Antetokounmpo and let the two-time MVP go to work.

“Man, this is going to help me be stronger for complete games instead of wearing down sometimes,” Lillard said. “I can kind of, I don’t want to say relax, but I don’t have to be so out front all the time.”

At least not until the Bucks need him to be. If everything felt abnormal for Lillard in the lead-up to the game, things felt familiar in the way it ended, with the ball in his hands, leading his team to victory.

“Dame is Dame. We knew what we were getting when we got him,” Bucks coach Adrian Griffin said. “Dame played a really smart game as far as, he knew when he had to take over. You could see [Lillard and Antetokounmpo] complemented each other out there. They really do.

“It’s only going to get better. It’s just one game, it takes time to build that chemistry. We showed flashes of what’s to come.”

Categories
Science

State of the Regional Greenhouse Fuel Initiative within the NE U.S. • Watts Up With That?

Originally posted at Climate Etc.

by Roger Caiazza

A case study on the challenges of controlling CO2 emissions.

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) is a carbon dioxide control program in the Northeastern United States.  One aspect of the program is a program review that is a “comprehensive, periodic review of their CO2 budget trading programs, to consider successes, impacts, and design elements”.  On September 26, 2023 the RGGI States hosted two webinars describing technical modeling & analyses that examined the electricity market, emissions, and economic impacts of changes to RGGI.  This post describes the disconnect between the results of RGGI to date relative to the expectations in the RGGI Third Program Review modeling that I addressed in my comments to RGGI.

Background

RGGI is a market-based program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. According to RGGI:

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) is a cooperative effort among the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Virginia to cap and reduce power sector CO2 emissions.

RGGI is composed of individual CO2 Budget Trading Programs in each participating state. Through independent regulations, based on the RGGI Model Rule, each state’s CO2 Budget Trading Program limits emissions of CO2 from electric power plants, issues CO2 allowances and establishes participation in regional CO2 allowance auctions.

More background information on cap-and-trade pollution control programs and RGGI is available from the Environmental Protection Agency and my RGGI posts page.  Proponents of these programs consider them silver bullet solutions.  However, I agree with Danny Cullenward and David Victor’s book Making Climate Policy Work  that the politics of creating and maintaining market-based policies for Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions “render them ineffective nearly everywhere they have been applied”.

Third Program Review

The RGGI participating states hosted two public meetings on September 26, 2023, to discuss updates on the Third Program Review and electricity sector analysis.  Meeting materials included the following: Meeting Agenda PDF; Presentation Slides PDF; Topics for Consideration PDF; Draft RGGI Emissions Dashboard ArcGIS Dashboard; RGGI Emissions Dashboard Draft User Guide PDF; Meeting Recording – Session 1, Meeting Recording – Session 2 and Draft IPM Matrix Case Results XLSX.

The RGGI States contracted ICF to analyze the different scenarios to inform the options for future RGGI.  ICF has a proprietary model, the Integrated Planning Model (IPM©), that has been used by the RGGI States since the inception of the program and which EPA uses to evaluate many of its control policies.  According to ICF:

ICF’s Integrated Planning Model provides true integration of wholesale power, system reliability, environmental constraints, fuel choice, transmission, capacity expansion, and all key operational elements of generators on the power grid in a linear optimization framework. The model captures a detailed representation of every electric boiler and generator in the power market being modeled.

In March the RGGI States explained that they planned to use IPM to evaluate several issues.  One problem is “fluidity of state participation”.  Nine states have been members of RGGI since its inception.  New Jersey was a charter member, got out, and now is back in; Virginia was in but is now getting out; and  Pennsylvania is trying to get in but participation has been stalled by litigation.  RGGI planning must address climate and complementary energy policies that will dramatically impact electricity load such as electric vehicles and EV infrastructure, electrification in the building sector, and aggressive energy efficiency efforts.  A major concern of the program review was allowance availability so the decarbonization timeline for the electricity sector was considered.  This is complicated because participating State timelines vary, implementation of offshore wind deployment affects decarbonization rates and grid-scale battery storage deployment, duration, and supply certainties affect the outcomes.

The September 26 webinar described three key observations from the modeling results:

  1. Modeling shows how current state decarbonization and renewable requirements can significantly reduce emissions;
  2. Federal incentives for clean energy have the potential to rapidly transform the RGGI region generation mix; and
  3. Scenarios modeled to date show relatively low allowance prices compared to the ECR/CCR price triggers in the Model Rule

The RGGI States have not proposed their plans for the Third Program Review.  The modeling observations support the idea that the RGGI allowance availability can be made more stringent.  So much so that the modeling plans changed from the spring to add a more stringent trajectory to reach zero emissions by 2035 rather than just looking at a zero emissions by 2040 trajectory.  My comments addressed these key observations .

I will summarize my concerns below but first it is necessary to review RGGI results to date.

RGGI Results to Date

There is an unfortunate disconnect between the results of RGGI to date relative to the expectations in the Third Program Review.  During the September 26 meeting the explanation of cap-and-trade systems stated that “States reinvest the proceeds in decarbonization and other programs to deliver benefits to their communities.”  What was missing was any mention of the efficacy of those investments relative to the emission reductions observed.

The primary cause of the observed RGGI emission reductions has been the fuel switch from coal and residual oil to natural gas.   Table 1 lists the emissions by fuel types for the nine RGGI states that have been members since the start.  I believe that RGGI had very little to do with these fuel switches because fuel costs are the biggest driver for operational costs and natural gas was cheaper.  The cost adder of the RGGI carbon price to date has been too small to drive the conversions from coal and oil to natural gas.

Table 1: RGGI Program Unit CO2 Emissions (tons) by State and Year

RGGI sources within the nine-state region have already implemented most of the coal and residual oil fuel switching opportunities available so this control strategy will be less impactful in the future.  For example, in New York coal-fired electric generation has been banned and the remaining units that burn residual oil primarily run to only provide critical reliability support so their emissions are not expected to change much from current levels.  In the future, RGGI affected source emission reductions will rely on the displacement of natural gas fired units with wind and solar zero emitting sources.

The 2021 investment proceeds report released on June 27, 2023 provides insight into the success of RGGI investments as an emission reduction tool.  The report breaks down the investments into five major categories:

Energy efficiency makes up 51% of 2021 RGGI investments and 55% of cumulative investments. Programs funded by these investments in 2021 are expected to return about $418 million in lifetime energy bill savings to more than 34,000 participating households and over 570 businesses in the region and avoid the release of 2.3 million short tons of CO2.

Clean and renewable energy makes up 4% of 2021 RGGI investments and 13% of cumulative investments. RGGI investments in these technologies in 2021 are expected to return over $600 million in lifetime energy bill savings and avoid the release of more than 1.7 million short tons of CO2.

Beneficial electrification makes up 13% of 2021 RGGI investments and 3% of cumulative investments. RGGI investments in beneficial electrification in 2021 are expected to avoid the release of 370,000 short tons of CO2 and return nearly $164 million in lifetime savings.

Greenhouse gas abatement and climate change adaptation makes up 11% of 2021 RGGI investments and 8% of cumulative investments. RGGI investments in greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement and climate change adaptation (CCA) in 2021 are expected to avoid the release of more than 10,000 short tons of CO2 and to return over $20 million in lifetime savings.

Direct bill assistance makes up 14% of 2021 RGGI investments and 13% of cumulative investments. Direct bill assistance programs funded through RGGI in 2021 have returned over $29 million in credits or assistance to consumers.

There is an important caveat to the emission reductions reported in the report.  The RGGI compliance metric is annual emissions and the above quote lists the lifetime emission reductions.  The sum of the lifetime emission reductions from the 2021 investments is 4.38 million tons but the annual emission reductions due to RGGI investments were only 235,299 tons (Figure 1).  The 9-state allowance allocation annual reduction in 2021 was 2,275,000 allowances so RGGI was only responsible for around 10% of the emission reductions required.

Figure 1: Table 1 from the 2021 investment proceeds report

The results in 2021 are consistent with historical observations.   To make a comparison to the CO2 reduction goals I had to sum the annual values in the previous reports because RGGI does not report the annual RGGI investment CO2 reduction values accumulated since the beginning of the program.  Table 2  lists the annual avoided CO2 emissions generated by the RGGI investments from previous reports.  The accumulated total of the annual reductions from RGGI investments is 3,893,925 tons while the difference between the three-year baseline of 2006-2008 and 2021 emissions is 58,334,373 tons.  The RGGI investments are only directly responsible for 6.7% of the total observed annual reductions over the baseline to 2021 timeframe!

Table 2: Accumulated Annual RGGI Benefits Through 2021

Dividing the total RGGI investments by the total tons reduced provides the cost per ton reduced.  The cumulative RGGI investment cost effectiveness is $927 per ton reduced.  That is far more than the Resources for the Future Social Cost of Carbon estimate of $185 per ton and indicates that costs exceed societal benefits.

Concerns with Results – Recommendations are highlighted in bold

The September 26 RGGI meeting observed that “Modeling shows how current state decarbonization and renewable requirements can significantly reduce emissions”. There is a unique aspect of the Third Program Review modeling process that has not been available previously. There are two independent modeling projections of the New York electricity system resources necessary to meet a zero-emission target by 2040.  The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) has evaluated scenarios that project the resources necessary to achieve the New York Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act goal of a zero-emissions electricity generating system by 2040.  New York’s Scoping Plan was guided by an  Integration Analysis that modeled the transition.  Comparison of those projections with the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) projections enables a check on how these requirements can reduce emissions using different methodologies.

It turns out that there are significant differences between the RGGI IPM modeling and the other analyses. The most glaring difference between the RGGI IPM modeling of New York and the New York analyses is the generation fossil-fuels sector (Table 3). The table subtracts the NYISO Resource Outlook Scenario 1 projected generation from the RGGI IPM modeling allowance supply scenarios for Assumption Set B and Integration Analysis Scenario 2.  The percentage difference shows that the IPM projects substantially more generation than NYISO and the Integration Analysis.

Table 3: Fossil Resource Sector Difference in Generation (GWH) Between the NYISO Resource Outlook and the RGGI IPM and Scoping Plan Integration Analysis Strategic Use of Low-Carbon Fuels Scenario

Because RGGI affected source emissions are so strongly correlated with operations these higher operating rates mean that the RGGI IPM modeling projects lower fossil-fired emissions than either model.  In Table 4 I estimated New York CO2 emissions by multiplying these projected generation differences times the 2022 calculated CO2 emission rate per MWh.  In the NYISO Resource Outlook column the emissions are relative to those scenario differences.  Similarly, the emission differences in the Integration Analysis are relative to the Scoping Plan projections.  IPM underestimates the fossil sectors emissions significantly.

Table 4: Fossil Resource Sector Difference in Projected CO2 Emissions (tons) Between the RGGI IPM and NYISO Resource Outlook and Scoping Plan

The RGGI States chose not to include any allowance supply numbers so I was forced to make my own estimates to determine the significance of these emissions.  I projected allowance availability using a linear interpolation between 2023  allowance allocations and zero by 2035 and 2040.  For the zero by 2040 allowance supply scenario, the 2030 emissions difference represents 27% of my estimated allowance allocation.  For the zero by 2035 allowance supply scenario, the 2030 emissions difference represents 42% of my estimated allowance allocation.  This suggests that this modeling difference needs to be reconciled to determine its impact on the RGGI State allowance allocation trajectory proposal.

There is another issue associated with the modeling results.  The ICF description of these modeling results notes that “due to the stringency of the program after 2040, the model shows an over-compliance of emissions in the early years (2025-2030) and banking of those allowances for when the cap is reduced in 2035 and beyond. “  This is an artifact of the perfect foresight methodology of IPM and, I believe, is unlikely to occur.

I think this is wrong because the modeling approach claims affected sources “over-comply”.  RGGI sources do not “over-comply” but rather acquire allowances to meet their compliance obligations with a slight surplus to ensure compliance  My primary concern is New York and in New York sources that could fuel switch to natural gas have already done so.  They cannot directly affect their compliance except by limiting operations.  Thus, RGGI sources in NY are at the point where they must rely on renewable energy to displace their need to operate.  This means that they only purchase the allowances they expect to use for their compliance obligations plus a small compliance cushion.

Based on the modeling description, IPM “perfect foresight” projects results over longer planning horizons than used in practice.  I believe that affected-sources across RGGI treat the allowance requirements as a short-term, no more than a couple of compliance periods, compliance obligation.  It is highly unlikely that most affected sources are making plans beyond short-term compliance periods so the idea that affected source would over-comply in early years for more stringent limits ten years ahead is incorrect.  The open question is how does this affect the allowance trajectories.  It might also account for differences between the NYISO and Integration Analysis projections.  The best way to reconcile this is in an open public forum with the modeling groups.

The September 26 RGGI meeting also observed that “Federal incentives for clean energy have the potential to rapidly transform the RGGI region generation mix” but recent developments suggest that this may be overly optimistic. Renewable developments are struggling due to soaring interest rates and rising equipment and labor costs. Reuters describes two “procured” projects in the RGGI region that have been cancelled:

  • On Monday, Avangrid (AGR.N), a U.S. subsidiary of Spanish energy firm Iberdrola (IBE.MC), said it filed agreements with power companies in Connecticut to cancel power purchase agreements for Avangrid’s proposed Park City offshore wind project.
  • “One year ago, Avangrid was the first offshore wind developer in the United States to make public the unprecedented economic headwinds facing the industry,” Avangrid said in a release. Those headwinds include “record inflation, supply chain disruptions, and sharp interest rate hikes, the aggregate impact of which rendered the Park City Wind project unfinanceable under its existing contracts,” Avangrid said.
  • Avangrid has said it planned to rebid the Park City project in future offshore wind solicitations. Also over the past week, utility regulators in Massachusetts approved a proposal by SouthCoast Wind, another offshore wind developer, to pay local power companies a total of around $60 million to terminate contracts to provide about 1,200 MW of power.

In New York, on October 12, 2023 the Public Service Commission turned down a request to address the same cost issues. Times Union writer Rick Karlin summarizes:

  • At issue was a request in June by ACE NY, as well as Empire Offshore Wind LLC, Beacon Wind LLC, and Sunrise Wind LLC, which are putting up the offshore wind tower farms.
  • All told, the request, which was in the form of a filing before the PSC, represented four offshore wind projects totaling 4.2 gigawatts of power, five land-based wind farms worth 7.5 gigawatts and 81 large solar arrays.
  • All of these projects are underway but not completed. They have already been selected and are under contract with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, or NYSERDA, to help New York transition to a clean power grid, as called for in the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, approved by the state Legislature and signed into law in 2019.

Developer response to the PSC decision suggests that “a number of planned projects will now be canceled, and their developers will try to rebid for a higher price at a later date — which will lead to delays in ushering in an era of green energy in New York”. Karlin also quotes Fred Zalcman, director of the New York Offshore Wind Alliance: “Today’s PSC decision denying relief to the portfolio of contracted offshore wind projects puts these projects in serious jeopardy,”

These issues impact the proposed RGGI allowance trajectories based on the “potential to rapidly transform the RGGI region generation mix”. The IPM modeling projects significant emission reductions presuming that procured renewable energy projects will come on line consistent with the contracts at the time of the modeling. The two cancelled projects in New England total 2,000 MW and the threatened New York wind projects total 11,700 MW.  Any projects delayed mean RGGI-affected source emissions will not be displaced as originally expected.  If the allowance trajectory proposed does not account for this new information, then compliance will be threatened because affected sources have so few options available to reduce emissions. I recommended that a RGGI IPM modeling scenario be run to consider the effect of a delayed implementation schedule before finalizing Third Program Review recommendations.  In fact, given the importance of renewable development on the emission trajectories it might even be appropriate to delay the timing of completion of this program review.

There is another consideration regarding feasibility. As noted above, the accumulated annual emission reductions due to RGGI investments is 3,893,925 tons and RGGI investments over the same time frame total $3,608,950,013 so the cost per ton avoided is $927. If the only source of future emission reductions were the result of RGGI investments, then RGGI allowance prices would have to equal $927 to get the necessary reductions.  Of course, other investments will also reduce emissions but the RGGI States should consider cost considerations for the viability of renewable energy resources needed to get RGGI affected source emissions to zero.  None of these models address this uncertainty.

The final observation noted at the September 26 webinar was that “Scenarios modeled to date show relatively low allowance prices compared to the ECR/CCR price triggers in the Model Rule”.  Low allowance prices indicate that emissions are lower than the allowances auctioned so there is a surplus of allowances.  My description of RGGI results to date noted that RGGI-affected sources have limited options to switch from coal and residual oil to natural gas.  I expect that as the opportunities to switch fuels diminish that the allowance market will get tighter and allowance prices will go up.  This could trigger the RGGI cost containment reserve.   If allowance prices exceed predefined price levels,  this RGGI feature will release additional allowances to the market.  If the allowance trajectory is too aggressive and emissions do not decrease as expected because wind and solar do not come on line as planned or there is an abnormal weather year increasing load and decreasing wind and solar availability, then there could be a situation where there simply are not enough allowances available for compliance.  The Cost Containment Reserve could prevent this from occurring.  However, no scenarios with this feature have been modeled yet.  I recommended that the RGGI States should model a scenario where the renewable implementation is delayed and the Cost Containment Reserve is employed.

Conclusion

I am afraid that the RGGI States are placing so much reliance on the IPM analysis results that they could propose unrealistic allowance reduction trajectories.  It is naïve to treat any model projections of the future energy system without a good deal of skepticism because the electric grid is so complex and currently dependent upon dispatchable resources.  Replacement of RGGI-affected sources with intermittent and diffuse wind and solar resources that cannot be dispatched is an enormous challenge with likely unintended consequences.  Therefore, the results should be considered relative to historical observations.

I don’t see much indication that the RGGI States are considering the results of RGGI to date.  I am leery of any model projections of this future system but I have much greater faith in projections by the NYISO because they are responsible for electric system reliability.  I think there are significant differences between the NYISO projections and IPM.  Until those differences are reconciled, I will be skeptical.  Kevin Kilty summed up a rational approach to the use of model results that I fear the RGGI States will ignore:

“Beware.  Expect Surprises. Expensive Ones”.

Personal Background

Roger Caiazza blogs on New York energy and environmental issues at Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York.  He blogs about the RGGI program because he has been involved with it since its inception and nobody else apparently wants to critically review it.   This represents his opinion and not the opinion of any of his previous employers or any other company with which he has been associated.

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Categories
Entertainment

Kris Jenner Shares Why She Cheated on Robert Kardashian

Why, yes, Kris Jenner and longtime love Corey Gamble are still doing amazing, sweetie. Nearly nine years ago, the music industry insider approached the world’s most famous momager at fashion designer Riccardo Tisci‘s 40th birthday bash in Ibiza and “I just tried saying, ‘You’re beautiful. I’d love to get to know you,'” he shared on the family’s OG series, Keeping Up With the Kardashians, “and it went from there.”

A decade on, Kris is still loving life with her “walking, talking Luther Vandross song.” Marking his 42nd birthday last November, the 67-year-old thanked him “for bringing so much love and light into my life. You are so smart, kind, generous, funny, protective, and creative. You remind me every day how blessed and lucky we are.”

Categories
Technology

Dutch MPs criticise new US export ban on ASML chip machine

Dutch politicians have expressed their dismay over the US’ new export rules for ASML, claiming that Washington has “unilaterally” imposed restrictions on selling yet another chip making machine to China.

AMSL has already been prohibited from selling its most sophisticated machines to China since 2019. This year in June (following months of pressure by the US), the Netherlands also introduced stricter export controls of high-end chip manufacturing products citing “national security interests.” Unsurprisingly, ASML’s advanced immersion DUV lithography systems fall under the measures.

But last week, Washington updated its export restrictions to include ASML’s Twinscan NXT1930Di machine if it contains American-made parts. As a result, Europe’s largest tech company will now have to apply for a US license to sell its device, even though exports are allowed according to Dutch regulations.

In response, during a parliamentary meeting on Tuesday, Dutch MPs demanded explanations from Foreign Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher, local newspaper Het Financiel Dagblad reports.

This decision means that “unilaterally the rules have been changed,” said Mustafa Amhaouch, MP of the CDA political party. He added that “economic jewels are being thrown aways” as part of the geopolitical showdowns — which leads to uncertainty and financial harm for both the Netherlands and Europe as a whole.

Schreinemacher said she does support a countermeasure, noting that the US has the right to do its own security analysis. She also dismissed suggestions that “economic motives” were at play. In addition, the minister highlighted that ASML does not simply use American-made components, but also has production facilities in the US.

For its part, ASML “will seek further clarification from the US authorities,” but is committed to complying with the export laws and regulations of the countries it operates, the company said in a statement. It doesn’t expect an impact on its financial outlook until 2030.

ASML’s now restricted deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machine produces a variety of chips, ranging from more advanced, to mid-range, and older ones. According to Schreinemacher, the block will only affect sales to six Chinese factories.

Meanwhile, the minister will further discuss the US measures in an upcoming meeting with EU member states in Brussels, and she said that the EU should have a greater role in decisions regarding the ban of sensitive technologies. “Europe is a strong force, and we must use it,” she noted.

Unlike the US’ clear decoupling strategy from China, the EU has been so far following a de-risking approach. But it seems that it will need to have a stronger stance in what appears to be an escalating chip war.

Categories
Health

Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi reveals promise as injection

Eisai on Wednesday said an injectable version of the Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi showed promising initial results in a clinical trial, potentially paving the way for a new and more convenient option for administering the antibody treatment. 

However, the injection did not cause lower rates of brain swelling and bleeding, which are Leqembi’s most concerning side effects.

Leqembi, made by Eisai and its partner Biogen, is the first medicine proven to slow the progression of Alzheimer’s in people at the early stages of the memory-robbing disease. U.S. regulators in July approved a version of Leqembi that is administered twice monthly through the veins, which is a method known as intravenous infusion. 

But Eisai and its partner Biogen are hoping to win approval for a subcutaneous version of the drug, which would be an injection under the skin. That method would allow patients or caregivers to administer the Leqembi at home, freeing them from the need to travel to an infusion center such as a hospital every two weeks.

Eisai and Biogen said in a release that they plan to apply for U.S. approval of subcutaneous Leqembi by the end of March.

Eisai presented the preliminary results, from an extension to a late-stage trial that supported the approval of intravenous Leqembi, at the Clinical Trials on Alzheimer’s Disease conference in Boston. That study tested subcutaneous doses of Leqembi and measured the drug’s safety and effects on a protein called amyloid – also known as plaque – that builds up in the brain and is associated with Alzheimer’s. 

The study showed that a set of two injections administered once weekly produced similar results after six months to twice-monthly intravenous infusions in terms of safety, the concentration of the drug in the blood and its ability to clear plaque buildups in the brain, Eisai said.

The study specifically showed that the injectable form of Leqembi removed 14% more plaque than the approved intravenous formulation. Blood concentration levels of the drug were 11% higher with subcutaneous Leqembi than the other version.

But the newer form still showed side effects known as amyloid-related imaging abnormalities, or ARIA. The removal of plaques from the brain can be associated with brain swelling and bleeding – also known as ARIA-E and ARIA-H – which can be severe or even deadly in rare cases.

Almost 17% of patients who got weekly injections had ARIA-E, compared with 13% who got the drug via intravenous infusion. And 22% of those taking the shots had ARIA-H, versus 17% who received the other form.

Roughly 6.7 million Americans age 65 and older are living with Alzheimer’s, according to the Alzheimer’s Association. That group is projected to rise to almost 13 million by 2050.

One in three seniors die with Alzheimer’s or another form of dementia, which kills more people than breast cancer and prostate cancer combined, the association said. The neurodegenerative disease begins with mild memory loss but eventually impairs a person’s ability to think and carry out daily activities.

There is a wealth of research on Alzheimer’s, but it has been notoriously difficult to treat. Multiple drugs designed to target the disease have failed in trials. The sheer cost and length of that research further impede drug development. And in recent years, scientists have ignited a debate over the true cause of the disease and what the drugs should target.

Categories
Sport

LSU’s Brian Kelly on lack of headset communication – ‘It is foolish’

  • Alex Scarborough, ESPN Staff WriterOct 25, 2023, 02:54 PM ET

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    • Covers the SEC.
    • Joined ESPN in 2012.
    • Graduate of Auburn University.

BATON ROUGE, La. — LSU coach Brian Kelly said that he has encouraged the SEC to adopt headset communication but that his efforts have ultimately gone nowhere.

Kelly is frustrated that they can’t use the technology, which is readily available and would effectively eliminate the practice of stealing signs.

“It’s silly,” he told ESPN on Wednesday. “Silly meaning my genuine feeling is that we have too many smart people that have looked at this and said we should be doing it and we haven’t taken the time to actually move it forward.”

Kelly said that teams attempting to steal signals of opponents has been “going on forever.”

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Asked whether those efforts ever rose to the level of what Michigan is accused of, sending people to scout opponents in person and using recording devices, Kelly said, “Who knows.”

“But this isn’t the first time we’ve heard of sign stealing,” he said, “whether there is proposed sign stealing or people were buying tickets to other games. This is all part of why this should not even be part of the equation.”

Kelly said the tangible effect of stealing signals is debatable. In 32 years of coaching, he said, he has never believed they lost a game because of it.

“I’ve never come back to the office and go, they got us,” he added.

Administrators have raised concerns that headset communication like the kind used in the NFL would void the warranties of helmets. There’s also the consideration of cost and implementation. Officials would have to employ someone to turn off the communication devices before each play as well.

But, as Kelly said, “I just don’t see why not.”

A longtime official told ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg that the excuses don’t merit not using the devices.

“If you want to clean up what’s going on at Michigan and every other school, put a transmitter,” the official said. “The NCAA talks about losing the warranties on the helmets. With the USFL, XFL, NFL, with transmitters, it does not lose the warranty. I don’t care what it costs, we want it. Clean up the game, make it more professional. It’s just technology.”

Todd Berry, the executive director of the American Football Coaches Association, is also in favor.

“This is too easy a problem to solve,” he said.

During the summer, the NCAA Rules Committee approved the experimental use of in-game communication technology in bowl games, National Coordinator of Officials Steve Shaw told ESPN. College Football Playoff games will not be impacted.

Shaw said that both schools and their conference offices will have to agree on the parameters for use. Headset communication like that used by the NFL could be used, as well as wearable technology similar to PitchCom, which is used in baseball.

The experiments would inform the expected debate in February 2024 when the NCAA will meet and consider rule changes.

Arkansas coach Sam Pittman said that he’s “all for it” and that it would “take some of that out of the game and make sure that it’s all fair.”

“You can’t steal signs and do any of this stuff if you have a helmet communicator,” said Alabama coach Nick Saban.

Florida State coach Mike Norvell said that sign stealing has been going on “forever” and that the staff does an “elaborate job of how we communicate” to avoid it.

“Accusations of people going and watching games,” he said, “that’s just an unethical thing. It’s against all parts of the rules and what’s stated. So I can’t defend that.”

Categories
Science

Io has 266 Energetic Volcanic Hotspots Linked by a International Magma Ocean

Jupiter’s Io stands apart from the Solar System’s other moons, with its numerous volcanoes and its surface dominated by lava flows. Io’s surface volcanism was confirmed in 1979 when the Voyager spacecraft imaged it, but its volcanic nature isn’t duplicated anywhere else in our system. Tidal heating is behind the moon’s eruptive nature, driven by Jupiter’s powerful gravity, and by resonance with other moons. But is there a magma ocean inside Io?

A final answer to that question has been elusive, but new research supports the idea of a magma ocean.

NASA’s Juno mission has shifted its focus from Jupiter to the gas giant’s moons, beginning with the volcanic Io. It’s flybys are getting increasingly closer to the unique moon, and the decreasing distance is giving the spacecraft a better and better look. It’s identified 266 active volcanoes, and together, they’re evidence of a vast global ocean of magma according to new research.

A new study titled “Io’s polar volcanic thermal emission indicative of magma ocean and shallow tidal heating models” presented these results. The lead author is Ashley Gerard Davies from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “The extreme level of volcanic activity on Io, the most volcanically active object in the Solar System, is the result of tidally-induced internal heating,” the authors write. That’s not a new conclusion, but there’s more to the research.

Juno’s Jovial Infrared Auroral Mapper (JIRAM) instrument acquired the data behind this research. JIRAM is an image spectrometer, and was designed to probe Jupiter’s upper atmosphere in infrared, including the giant planet’s auroral regions. But now the focus has shifted to Io, and JIRAM is observing the moon’s widespread volcanic activity.

“Io is the most volcanic celestial body that we know of in our solar system,” said Scott Bolton, Juno principal investigator from the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio. “By observing it over time on multiple passes, we can watch how the volcanoes vary – how often they erupt, how bright and hot they are, whether they are linked to a group or solo, and if the shape of the lava flow changes,” Bolton said in May 2023 when Juno came within about 35,500 km (22,000 miles) of Io.

Since then, Juno has closed the distance even more, and its latest pass brought it to within 12,000 km (7500 miles.) But it’s not just the proximity that is driving more discoveries. Juno follows a polar orbit, while previous observations of Io have been mostly confined to an equatorial plane. Why does that matter?

Scientists have been studying Io intently, trying to discover what drives its volcanic nature. They’ve developed detailed models of the moon, but haven’t been able to test them as rigorously as they can now. “Models predict enhanced heat flow at Io’s poles if tidal heating is deep in the mantle, and at lower latitudes if heating is predominantly in the asthenosphere, or a magma ocean is present,” the authors explain.

But now scientists have Juno’s data to work with, and its polar orbit is giving researchers a more complete look at the moon.

This figure from the research shows four images of Io from JIRAM. Two are from perijove 10 and show the south polar region at a resolution of 112 km/pixel (a & c.) The other two (c & d) are from perijove 43 and show the north polar region at a resolution of 21 km/pixel. Image b and d are JIRAM data overlain on Galileo/Voyager images. This new data from Io’s poles is critical to understanding the moon’s nature. Image Credit: Davies et al. 2023.

“The distribution of Io’s volcanic activity likely reflects the position and magnitude of internal tidal heating,” the authors write. Now that JIRAM has provided polar data, researchers have complete, global near-infrared coverage that reveals the distribution and the magnitude of thermal emission from Io’s actively erupting volcanoes. With that data, the researchers can probe the moon’s interior and models developed to explain it.

“This result is consistent with models of a global magma ocean or tidal heating in the shallow asthenosphere.”

From “Io’s polar volcanic thermal emission indicative of magma ocean and shallow tidal heating models” by Davies et al. 2023

The research uncovered differences in energy output between the poles and the more equatorial regions, and between the poles themselves. “On average, Io’s polar volcanoes individually generate less energy than volcanoes at lower latitudes; and the south polar volcanoes generate less energy per volcano than the north polar volcanoes,” the researchers explain.

This figure from the research shows the hot spot detections. They range in colour and size from blue up to yellow. Each increasing size and corresponding colour indicates greater spectral radiance. Image Credit: Davies et al. 2023.

Why are these findings significant? It’s because of previously developed models.

“We show that the distribution of volcanic heat flow from 266 active hot spots is consistent with the presence of a global magma ocean, and/or shallow asthenospheric heating,” the authors write.

This isn’t the first study to suggest that Io has a magma ocean. Previous research from 2009 based on Galileo’s magnetometer data showed that the moon must have a magma ocean about 50 km (30 mi) below the surface. But Galileo only did one flyby of the moon, leaving room for some doubt to creep in. More recent analysis of the same data strengthened the same conclusion, showing that the magma ocean is 50 km thick.

But there was always a little doubt cast on those conclusions because they lacked global infrared data. Now that scientists have that data, the case for a magma ocean is solidifying.

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Categories
Entertainment

Congrats! Jaidyn Alexis Indicators File Deal With Columbia Data

Four months after making her music debut with “Stewie,” Jaidyn Alexis is signed to a major record label.

The rising rapper announced her deal with Columbia Records via Instagram on Tuesday (Oct. 24). She shared a carousel post featuring photos of her at Columbia’s headquarters.

“First lady, yea, I’m signed and sealed w a deal,” Jaidyn wrote in the caption, quoting her latest song “Barbie.”

The news comes a week after she and fiancé Blueface met with the label on Tuesday (Oct. 17). In videos from that visit, Blueface joked about what requirements Jaidyn should set to get signed, including asking for four million dollars and a yacht. Their son, Javaughn, was present with them last week.

Jaidyn Alexis and Blueface have a meeting today with Columbia Records 👀 pic.twitter.com/6ResEUOBgr

— HOUSE OF BLUES (@house0fblues) October 18, 2023

Blueface Reacts To Jaidyn Alexis’ Deal With Columbia

As of Tuesday, the details of her record deal haven’t been disclosed. We know that Blueface has publicly addressed Jaidyn Alexis as the “first lady” of MILF Music, an independent label he founded. On Oct. 18, he explained his goal with Jaidyn’s music career on X (formerly Twitter).

“Milf music is a independent company which will be apart of the deal of course but the main focus is to get Jaidyn a certified record that’s played on the radio that’s where the label comes in I don’t have access to those resources only labels do,” Blueface wrote.

Now, with Columbia behind Jaidyn Alexis, it seems Blueface’s plan is on track. The “Thotiana” artist was present with Jaidyn when she inked her deal with Columbia today.

In a video re-shared by The Shade Room, he addressed Columbia Records reps about their partnership with MILF Music.

“Being the marketing and budget behind Jaidyn so Columbia can see what we doing. I want to go far, I want to go to the top, I want this to never stop. I own you guys now, you guys work for us. Raise your hand if you work for MILF Music,” Blueface said as Jaidyn stood next to him.

See the footage below. 

Over on X, Blue revealed that Jaidyn’s “Barbie” has a remix coming that will “be everywhere” thanks to MILF Music and Columbia. He added that Jaidyn “will be the hottest artist by 2024.”  

Last week, the song peaked at no.13 on Billboard’s Top 50 TikTok chart. It has over 3.8 million views on YouTube and is one of four tracks (and music videos) Jaidyn has released since June.

As for the signed artist, she hasn’t said much else about the accomplishment — minus re-sharing a few congratulatory posts on X.

first lady yea im signed n im sealed w a deal 🥹😭🚀🚀🚀🥳

— Jaidyn Alexis (@jaidynalexxis) October 24, 2023

This marks Jaidyn’s second W of the week. Blueface proposed to her at an NFL game in Los Angeles on Sunday. The pair have been dating on and off since high school and share two children together, their son and toddler daughter, Journey.

RELATED: Wedding Bells Coming Soon? Blueface Proposes To Jaidyn Alexis

Categories
Health

6 medical health insurance phrases to know as open enrollment begins

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Many people will soon be picking their health insurance plans for 2024: November is a common month for workplace open enrollment, and the public marketplace opens Nov. 1.

But choosing a health plan can be tricky.

In fact, a 2017 study found many people lose money due to suboptimal choices: Sixty-one percent chose the wrong plan, costing them an average $372 a year. The paper, authored by economists at Carnegie Mellon University and the Wisconsin School of Business, examined choices made by almost 24,000 workers at a U.S. firm.

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Health plans have many moving parts, such as premiums and deductibles. Each has financial implications for buyers.

“It is confusing, and people have no idea how much they could potentially have to pay,” Carolyn McClanahan, a certified financial planner and founder of Life Planning Partners, based in Jacksonville, Florida, previously told CNBC. McClanahan is also a medical doctor and a member of CNBC’s FA Council.

Making a mistake can be costly; consumers are generally locked into their health insurance for a year, with limited exception.

Here’s a guide to the major cost components of health insurance and how they may affect your bill.

1. Premiums

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The premium is the sum you pay an insurer each month to participate in a health plan.

It’s perhaps the most transparent and easy-to-understand cost component of a health plan — the equivalent of a sticker price.

The average premium paid by an individual worker was $1,401 a year — or about $117 a month — in 2023, according to a survey on employer-sponsored health coverage from the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonprofit. Families paid $6,575 a year, or $548 a month, on average.

Your monthly payment may be higher or lower depending on the type of plan you choose, the size of your employer, your geography and other factors.

Low premiums don’t necessarily translate to good value. You may be on the hook for a big bill later if you see a doctor or pay for a procedure, depending on the plan.

“When you’re shopping for health insurance, people naturally shop like they do for most products — by the price,” Karen Pollitz, co-director of KFF’s program on patient and consumer protection, previously told CNBC.

“If you’re shopping for tennis shoes or rice, you know what you’re getting” for the price, she said. “But people really should not just price shop, because health insurance is not a commodity.”

“The plans can be quite different” from each other, she added.

2. Co-pay

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Many workers also owe a copayment — a flat dollar fee — when they visit a doctor. A “co-pay” is a form of cost-sharing with health insurers.

The average patient pays $26 for each visit to a primary-care doctor and $44 to visit a specialty care physician, according to KFF.

3. Co-insurance

Patients may owe additional cost-sharing, such as co-insurance, a percentage of health costs that the consumer shares with the insurer. This cost-sharing generally kicks in after you’ve paid your annual deductible (a concept explained more fully below).

The average co-insurance rate for consumers is 19% for primary care and 20% for specialty care, according to KFF data. The insurer would pay the other 81% and 80% of the bill, respectively.

As an example: If a specialty service costs $1,000, the average patient would pay 20% — or $200 — and the insurer would pay the remainder.

Co-pays and co-insurance may vary by service, with separate classifications for office visits, hospitalizations or prescription drugs, according to KFF. Rates and coverage may also differ for in-network and out-of-network providers.

4. Deductible

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Deductibles are another common form of cost-sharing.

This is the annual sum a consumer must pay out of pocket before the health insurer starts to pay for services.

Ninety percent of workers with single coverage have a deductible in 2023, according to KFF. Their average general annual deductible is $1,735.

The deductible meshes with other forms of cost-sharing.

Here’s an example based on a $1,000 hospital charge. A patient with a $500 deductible pays the first $500 out of pocket. This patient also has 20% co-insurance, and therefore pays another $100 (or, 20% of the remaining $500 tab). This person would pay a total $600 out of pocket for this hospital visit.

When you’re shopping for health insurance, people naturally shop like they do for most products — by the price.

Karen Pollitz

co-director of the program on patient and consumer protections at the Kaiser Family Foundation

Health plans may have more than one deductible — perhaps one for general medical care and another for pharmacy benefits, for example, Pollitz said.

Family plans may also assess deductibles in two ways: by combining the aggregate annual out-of-pocket costs of all family members, and/or by subjecting each family member to a separate annual deductible before the plan covers costs for that member.

The average deductible can vary widely by plan type: $1,281 in a preferred provider organization (PPO) plan; $1,200 in a health maintenance organization (HMO) plan; $1,783 in a point of service (POS) plan; and $2,611 in a high-deductible health plan, according to KFF data on single coverage. (Details of plan types are outlined below.)

5. Out-of-pocket maximum

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Most people also have an out-of-pocket maximum.

This is a limit on the total cost-sharing consumers pay during the year — including co-pays, co-insurance and deductibles.

After you’ve paid the out-of-pocket maximum amount for the year, “the insurer can’t ask you for a co-pay at the doctor or pharmacy, or hit you for more deductibles,” Pollitz said. “That’s it; you’ve given your pound of flesh.”

About 99% of workers with single coverage are in a plan with an out-of-pocket maximum in 2023, according to KFF.

The range can be large. For example, 13% of workers with single coverage have an out-of-pocket maximum of less than $2,000, but 21% have one of $6,000 or more, according to KFF data.

Out-of-pocket maximums for health plans purchased through an Affordable Care Act marketplace can’t exceed $9,100 for individuals or $18,200 for a family in 2023.

6. Network

Health insurers treat services and costs differently based on their network.

“In network” refers to doctors and other health providers who are part of an insurer’s preferred network. Insurers sign contracts and negotiate prices with these in-network providers. This isn’t the case for “out-of-network” providers.

Here’s why that matters: Deductibles and out-of-pocket maximums are much higher when consumers seek care outside their insurer’s network — generally about double the in-network amount, McClanahan said.

Further, there’s sometimes no cap at all on annual costs for out-of-network care.

“Health insurance really is all about the network,” Pollitz said.

“Your financial liability for going out of network can be really quite dramatic,” she added. “It can expose you to some serious medical bills.”

Some categories of plans disallow coverage for out-of-network services, with limited exception.

For example, HMO plans are among the cheapest types of insurance, according to Aetna. Among the tradeoffs: The plans require consumers to pick in-network doctors and require referrals from a primary care physician before seeing a specialist.

Similarly, EPO plans also require in-network services for insurance coverage, but generally come with more choice than HMOs.

POS plans require referrals for a specialist visit but allow for some out-of-network coverage. PPO plans generally carry higher premiums but have more flexibility, allowing for out-of-network and specialist visits without a referral.  

“Cheaper plans have skinnier networks,” McClanahan said. “If you don’t like the doctors, you may not get a good choice and have to go out of network.”

How to bundle it all together

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Budget is among the most important considerations, Winnie Sun, co-founder and managing director of Sun Group Wealth Partners in Irvine, California, previously told CNBC. She’s also a member of CNBC’s FA Council.

For example, would you struggle to pay a $1,000 medical bill if you require health care? If so, a health plan with a larger monthly premium and a smaller deductible may be your best bet, Sun said.

Similarly, older Americans or those who require a lot of health care each year — or who expect to have a costly procedure in the coming year — may do well to pick a plan with a bigger monthly premium but better cost-sharing.

Healthy people who generally don’t max out their health spending every year may find it cheaper overall to have a high-deductible plan, McClanahan said.

Cheaper plans have skinnier networks. If you don’t like the doctors, you may not get a good choice and have to go out of network.

Carolyn McClanahan

certified financial planner and founder of Life Planning Partners

Consumers who enroll in a high-deductible plan should use their monthly savings on premiums to fund a health savings account, advisors said. HSAs are available to consumers who enroll in a high-deductible plan.

“Understand the first dollars and the potential last dollars when picking your insurance,” McClanahan said, referring to upfront premiums and back-end cost-sharing.

Every health plan has a summary of benefits and coverage, or SBC, which presents key cost-sharing information and plan details uniformly across all health insurance, Pollitz said.

“I’d urge people to spend a little time with the SBC,” she said. “Don’t wait until an hour before the deadline to take a look. The stakes are high.”

Further, if you’re currently using a doctor or network of providers you like, ensure those providers are covered under your new insurance plan if you intend to switch, McClanahan said. You can consult an insurer’s in-network online directory or call your doctor or provider to ask if they accept your new insurance.

The same rationale goes for prescription drugs, Sun said: Would the cost of your current prescriptions change under a new health plan?

Categories
Science

Don’t Count on 3.4GW of New Renewables to Present Grid Stability • Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Aussie Energy & Climate Minister: “I don’t see we can put all the pressure on Renewables for Stability and Reliability”, blames Climate Change for Hot Summers.

Chris Bowen on renewables providing reliable energy:

CHRIS BOWEN: One of the biggest challenges to stability is frankly coal-fired power station outages that were unexpected. I mean we saw a big impact when the Callide Power Station in Queensland went offline a few years ago and is still not yet back online.

I don’t think we can just put all the pressure on renewables for stability and reliability. We have 3.4 gigawatts more going into this summer than we had last summer of generation, that’s a good thing. Yes, we need more storage. We have policies in place to get that through our Capacity Investment Scheme, which we’ve already begun rolling out. This is an ongoing task for governments and will continue to be.

Full transcript: https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/interview-sabra-lane-abc-am-3

Bowen is the minister who in February this year vehemently rejected suggestions his renewable heavy policies might lead to blackouts.

What a shame Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen is so anti-nuclear. In June last year Bowen explained people who think nuclear is better than renewable are “dangerously ignorant”.

Modern zero carbon nuclear plants generally run like clockwork, delivering predictable, dispatchable electricity 24×7, 365 days per year.

3.4GW of reliable nuclear capacity would have contributed significantly to Australia’s grid stability this summer, and barring a transmission line failure, would likely have all but eliminated the risk of a summer blackout. Instead we have 3.4GW of additional useless renewables, which even the minister responsible admits can’t be relied upon to improve grid stability.

The following is Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen in 2022, explaining to the audience that we don’t have to worry about renewable intermittency, because we can store electricity like water.

Chris Bowen isn’t having any of Uhlmann’s ‘wind doesn’t always blow’ rhetoric.

“the rain doesn’t always fall either, but we manage to store the water – we can store the renewable energy if we have the investment”#auspol pic.twitter.com/LjJkEr3zJy

— Squizz (@SquizzSTK) June 16, 2022

Chris Bowen is sounding a lot less confident now he’s had his nose rubbed in a few energy market realities, but he still hasn’t got the balls to publicly admit he has taken Australian energy policy in the wrong direction.

When the proverbial hits the fan, Bowen will not be able to claim he wasn’t warned. Australia’s official energy grid body has been sounding the alarm for years on Australia’s increasingly precarious energy grid, and the risks posed by a lack of dispatchable capacity, since well before Bowen took office.

I accept Bowen inherited a mess from the previous net zero infatuated faux conservative administration, but Bowen’s ignorant and reckless energy policies have made the mess a whole lot worse.

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