Month: December 2024

There was significant solar activity last year. This was particularly true in the month of May, which saw more than 350 solar storms, solar flares and geomagnetic storms. This included the strongest solar storm in 20 years, producing auroras at far lower latitudes than usual, and the strongest solar flare observed since December 2019. Given the threat they pose to radio communications, power grids, navigation systems, and spacecraft and astronauts, numerous agencies are actively monitoring the Sun's behavior to learn more about its long-term behavior.

However, astronomers have not yet determined whether the Sun can produce “superflares” and how often they might occur. While tree rings and samples of millennia-old glacial ice are effective in recording the strongest superflares, they are not effective methods for determining their frequency, and direct measurements of solar activity have only been available since the Space Age. In a recent study, an international team of researchers has chosen a new approach. By analyzing Kepler data from tens of thousands of Sun-like stars, they estimate that stars like ours produce superflares about once a century.

The study was carried out by the reseMax Planck Institute for Solar System Research (MPS), the Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory (SGO) and the Space Physics and Astronomy Research Unit at the University of Oulu, the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ), the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) at the University of Colorado Boulder (UCF), the National Solar Observatory (NSO), the Commissariat of Atomic and Alternative Energies of Paris-Saclay and the University of Paris-Cité as well as several universities. The article covering their research was recently published in the journal Science.

Superflares are characterized by the intense amount of radiation they emit, about 1032 ergs or 6.2444 electron volts (eV). For comparison, consider the Carrington event of 1859, one of the most violent solar storms in the last 200 years. While this solar flare caused widespread disruption and led to the collapse of telegraph networks in northern Europe and North America, it released only a hundredth of the energy of a superflare. While tree rings and glacier samples have recorded powerful events in the past, the ability to observe thousands of stars simultaneously tells astronomers a lot about how often the strongest bursts occur.

This is certainly true of the Kepler Space Telescope, which for years continuously monitored around 100,000 main sequence stars for signs of periodic dips that indicate the presence of exoplanets. The same observations recorded countless solar flares, which appeared as short, pronounced peaks in brightness in the observational data. Like Prof. Dr. Sami Solanki, director at MPS and co-author of the paper, stated in an MPS press release:

“We cannot observe the sun for thousands of years. Instead, however, we can observe the behavior of thousands of Sun-like stars over short periods of time. This helps us estimate how frequently superflares occur.”

For their study, the team analyzed data obtained by Kepler between 2009 and 2013 from 56,450 Sun-like stars. The images were carefully examined for signs of potential superflares, which were only a few pixels in size. The team also carefully selected the stars and only considered those whose surface temperature and brightness were similar to those of the Sun. The researchers also ruled out potential sources of error, including cosmic rays, transient phenomena (asteroids or comets), and other types of stars that flare up near a Sun-like star.

Overall, the Kepler data provided the team with evidence of 220,000 years of stellar activity. From this, they were able to identify 2,889 superflares from 2,527 of the observed stars, producing an average of one superflare per star per century. While previous research found average intervals of a thousand or even tens of thousands of years, these studies could not determine the exact source of the observed eruptions. They also had to limit themselves to stars without close neighbors, making this latest study the most precise and sensitive yet.

Nevertheless, previous studies that took into account indirect evidence and observations from the last few decades have found longer distances between superflares. In the past, whenever the Sun has released a large amount of energetic particles that have reached Earth's atmosphere, the interaction has produced a detectable amount of radioactive carbon-14 (C14). This isotope will remain in tree and glacier samples over thousands of years of slow decay, allowing astronomers to identify strong solar events and determine how long ago they occurred.

Using this method, researchers were able to identify five extreme solar particle events and three candidates within the last twelve thousand years – suggesting an average rate of one superflare per 1,500 years. However, the team acknowledges that more violent solar particle events and superflares may have occurred in the past. “It is unclear whether gigantic flares are always accompanied by coronal mass ejections and what the relationship is between superflares and extreme solar particle events,” said co-author Prof. Dr. Ilya Usoskin from the University of Oulu. “This requires further investigation.”

While the new study doesn't reveal when the Sun will experience its next superflare, the results urge caution. “The new data is a stark reminder that even the most extreme solar events are part of the sun’s natural repertoire,” said co-author Dr. Natalie Krivova from MPS. In the meantime, the best way to stay prepared is to monitor the sun regularly to ensure reliable forecasts and early warnings. Until 2031, these efforts will be supported by ESA's Vigil spacecraft, which is supporting the MPS through the development of its Polarimetric and Magnetic Imager (PHI) instrument.

Further reading: MPS, science

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Of legal insurrection

President Nayib Bukele: “God has placed a huge treasure under our feet.”

Posted by Leslie Eastman

Back in 2017, El Salvador became the first country in the world to commit economic suicide by prohibiting the potential development and use of its national resources.

Under the leadership of President Nayib Bukele, the country is now trying to reverse course.

The move by Bukele's predecessor, former leftist rebel Salvador Sanchez Ceren, reflected growing opposition to mining among rural communities in Central America that are suffering from the industry's negative health and environmental impacts.

Both Costa Rica and Honduras have banned open-pit mining and Panama declared a moratorium on new mining concessions last year after mass protests against plans for a massive copper mine.

According to Bukele, El Salvador may have unmined gold reserves worth an estimated $3 trillion, equivalent to about 8,800% of the country's current GDP.

In a series of posts on social media platform X, Bukele predicted that the country may have “the largest gold deposits per square kilometer in the world.”

According to preliminary studies cited by the president, El Salvador's gold reserves could be worth a staggering $3 trillion – equivalent to over 8,800% of the country's current GDP. Bukele argues that mining just 4% of the country's gold reserves could generate $131 billion, equivalent to 380% of current GDP.

Translation: GOD HAS PUT US A GIGANTIC TREASURE UNDER OUR FEET: El Salvador may have the highest density of gold deposits per km² in the world. Located in the Pacific Ring of Fire, one of the most mineral-rich areas due to its volcanic activity.

But it's not just gold that's important. Studies have identified the presence of a variety of critical metals and rare earth minerals: cobalt, lithium, nickel, platinum, iridium, titanium and germanium.

The good news: He has the votes to repeal the senseless law.

On December 1, Bukele announced that in addition to gold deposits, El Salvador's territory is home to “metals of the fourth and fifth industrial revolutions,” EFE news agency reported. The president explained that studies identified cobalt, lithium, nickel and “rare earths used in advanced electronics,” as well as platinum, iridium, tantalum, titanium, gallium and germanium, among others.

The president's liberal, populist and reformist party, Nuevas Ideas, has the necessary votes to lift the mining ban at any time.

“We must use our natural resources responsibly, like every country in the world does,” Bukele said. Citing examples such as Qatar, Israel, Canada and Switzerland, he reiterated that “there is not a single country that has done something as stupid as banning mining.”

Many reports mention gallium, a rare metal with a broader range of applications in electronics. The highlight, however, is that the metal is also needed for thin-film solar cells, wind turbine generators and power converters for electric cars.

In other words, gallium is crucial for green energy, a fact clearly underestimated by eco-activists unhappy with this potential policy shift.

The timing of these discoveries and policy reversals couldn't be better. With China now banning the import of rare earth metals into this country, it would be wonderful to expand our supply chain.

Of course the environmental activists are dissatisfied:

This week, Bukele toughened his proposal and his critics quickly responded. They fear that resuming mining could contaminate water sources, especially given the amount of fresh water required for mining and the risks posed by the heavy metals used in it.

“The president claims that 'responsible mining' is possible, but there is no evidence to support this claim,” Pedro Cabezas, a member of the Central American Alliance against Mining (ACAFREMIN), told Newsweek. “There is no example of 'responsible mining' that has not had serious impacts. The impact in El Salvador would be terrible,” he warned.

But Bukele argues persuasively that a richer country is also a cleaner country.

“I understand the concern. In El Salvador, 95% of the water bodies are polluted. Imagine if we polluted them even further; In the end we will have a contamination of 97 to 98%. The reality is that when 95% of the rivers are polluted, one should not focus on saving the remaining 5%, but rather focus on restoring the lost 95%,” Bukele argued on Thursday. “If we had 95% of our rivers clean, we could focus on maintaining the status quo.”

“The only thing we can do is invest billions of dollars to clean up the polluted waters. And to have these billions, we need resources that can be easily obtained through mining,” he added, according to Diario El Salvador.

I think Trump should make sure Bukele gets a front row seat at his inauguration.

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