The Week That Was: 2025 03-29 (March 29, 2025)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “There are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations.” —James Madison (1788)
Number of the Week: 250,000 additional death per year.
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: TWTW begins with improvements in numerical weather forecasting using Artificial Intelligence, including limitations. Then, TWTW discusses an AI model for climate change prediction. The use of big numbers that have little meaning is discussed as well as a statistician’s objection to commonly associated links that have little meaning. TWTW concludes with emphasizing the importance of photosynthesis and with a correction from last week.
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Models Forecasting: Improvements in numerical weather forecasting using Artificial Intelligence (AI) promise hope in making accurate forecasts longer than two weeks. Chaos theory and an interpretation of what has been understood in modeling and probability theory since John von Neumann (1903-1957) indicate that weather and climate are too complex to forecast well in advance. When discussing the problems of degrees of freedom in statistical analysis and modeling, von Neumann famously said:
“With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk,”
The variables that determine what the weather will be in (say) a week from now in (say) Chicago are all present weather quantities (temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction) as well as weather quantities in regions that are possibly a few thousand kilometers away. The parameters are known in statistics as degrees of freedom. The further into the future we intend to predict the weather, the greater the number of degrees of freedom become, and the more complicated the prediction becomes. A modeler may wish to constrain predicted values by limiting the temperature range to within 10 degrees of the historical average, for example, but doing so does not increase the predictive skill of the model. In particular, climate modelers adjust parameters to conform to the notion that CO2 concentration determines the surface temperature.
Writing in WUWT, Meteorologist Paul Dorian describes the new techniques in weather forecasting. He states:
“Artificial intelligence (AI) is a collection of technologies that allow computers to perform tasks that typically require human intelligence, and it is increasingly impacting the world of weather forecasting. The European Center for Medium-Range Forecasting (ECMWF) has made strides with its Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) as it has recently become fully operational and is now run side-by-side with its traditional physics-based Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). According to the ECMWF, the AIFS has outperformed the physics-based model for many measures including, for example, tropical cyclone tracks. In addition to the ECMWF AIFS, there are at least four other known “A.I. trained” weather models including NOAA/Google GraphCast, Microsoft’s Aurora, NVIDIA’s FourCast, and Huawei’s Pangu-Weather.”
He shows two maps of snowfall forecasts; one based on the conventional European model and the second using the Euro-AI version.
“The traditional approach to weather forecasting has been to make use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) which relies on current conditions, physics-based models, and the solving of complex equations on powerful supercomputers to output such parameters as temperature, pressure, winds, and precipitation at future times. Artificial intelligence (AI) models, particularly machine learning, are being increasingly used to improve weather forecasting by learning from large datasets of weather data to identify patterns and trends. AI models can process data faster and identify complex patterns, potentially leading to quicker and more accurate forecasts. The increasingly important role of AI in weather forecasting will be to complement and enhance traditional NWP models.
The European Center for Medium-Range Forecasting (ECMWF) has made its Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) the first such fully operational weather prediction model that uses machine learning and artificial intelligence. Making such a system operational means that it is openly available and has 24/7 support for the meteorological community. This AIFS can produce a wide range of output parameters including winds, temperatures, and details on precipitation types from snow to rain. The AIFS currently has a grid spacing of 28 km and, according to the ECMWF, it can outperform its physics-based counterpart by as much as 20% on certain measures.”
Dorian concludes his post with:
The first operational version is called the AIFS ‘Single’. It runs a single forecast at a time, known as a deterministic forecast. However, ECMWF is pushing this model to create a collection of 50 different forecasts with slight variations at any given time to provide the full range of possible scenarios. This is known as ensemble modelling, a technique developed and implemented by ECMWF more than thirty years ago. [Boldface added]
The ensemble modeling technique has been adopted by the global climate modelers, and they make the same erroneous assumption – that an increase in temperatures from CO2 of one degree C will cause an increase in water vapor that will double the increase in temperature to two degrees C. The increase in water vapor from warming is not found and it is doubtful to occur in the tropics with humidity ranging from 70 to over 90 percent. [However, You can increase the temperature while holding the relative humidity constant; the absolute humidity does increase, and that’s what matters.]
Separately, a press release from The Alan Turing Institute asserts that a new AI system can do things faster, at lower costs. The system is called Aardvark Weather. The press release states:
“A new AI weather prediction system, developed by researchers from the University of Cambridge, can deliver accurate forecasts tens of times faster and using thousands of times less computing power than current AI and physics-based forecasting systems.
The system, Aardvark Weather, has been supported by the Alan Turing Institute, Microsoft Research and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts. It provides a blueprint for a new approach to weather forecasting with the potential to transform current practices. The results are reported in the journal Nature.
‘Aardvark reimagines current weather prediction methods offering the potential to make weather forecasts faster, cheaper, more flexible and more accurate than ever before, helping to transform weather prediction in both developed and developing countries,’ said Professor Richard Turner from Cambridge’s Department of Engineering, who led the research. ‘Aardvark is thousands of times faster than all previous weather forecasting methods.’
Current weather forecasts are generated through a complex set of stages, each taking several hours to run on powerful supercomputers. Aside from daily usage, the development, maintenance and use of these systems require significant time and large teams of experts.
More recently, research by Huawei, Google, and Microsoft has shown that one component of the weather forecasting pipeline, the numerical solver (which calculates how weather evolves over time), can be replaced with AI, resulting in faster and more accurate predictions. This combination of AI and traditional approaches is now being used by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
But with Aardvark, researchers have replaced the entire weather prediction pipeline with a single, simple machine learning model. The new model takes observations from satellites, weather stations and other sensors and outputs both global and local forecasts.
This fully AI driven approach means predictions that were once produced using many models – each requiring a supercomputer and a large support team to run – can now be produced in minutes on a desktop computer.
When using just 10% of the input data of existing systems, Aardvark already outperforms the United States national GFS forecasting system on many variables. It is also competitive with United States Weather Service forecasts that use input from dozens of weather models and analysis by expert human forecasters.
‘These results are just the beginning of what Aardvark can achieve,’ said first author Anna Allen, from Cambridge’s Department of Computer Science and Technology. ‘This end-to-end learning approach can be easily applied to other weather forecasting problems, for example hurricanes, wildfires, and tornadoes. Beyond weather, its applications extend to broader Earth system forecasting, including air quality, ocean dynamics, and sea ice prediction.’
The researchers say that one of the most exciting aspects of Aardvark is its flexibility and simple design. Because it learns directly from data it can be quickly adapted to produce bespoke forecasts for specific industries or locations, whether that’s predicting temperatures for African agriculture or wind speeds for a renewable energy company in Europe.
This contrasts to traditional weather prediction systems where creating a customized system takes years of work by large teams of researchers.
‘The weather forecasting systems we all rely on have been developed over decades, but in just 18 months, we’ve been able to build something that’s competitive with the best of these systems, using just a tenth of the data on a desktop computer,’ said Turner, who is also Lead Researcher for Weather Prediction at the Alan Turing Institute.
This capability has the potential to transform weather prediction in developing countries where access to the expertise and computational resources required to develop conventional systems is not typically available.
‘Unleashing AI’s potential will transform decision-making for everyone from policymakers and emergency planners to industries that rely on accurate weather forecasts,’ said Dr Scott Hosking from The Alan Turing Institute. ‘Aardvark’s breakthrough is not just about speed, it’s about access. By shifting weather prediction from supercomputers to desktop computers, we can democratize forecasting, making these powerful technologies available to developing nations and data-sparse regions around the world.’
‘Aardvark would not have been possible without decades of physical-model development by the community, and we are particularly indebted to ECMWF for their ERA5 dataset which is essential for training Aardvark,’ said Turner.
‘It is essential that academia and industry work together to address technological challenges and leverage new opportunities that AI offers,’ said Matthew Chantry from ECMWF. ‘Aardvark’s approach combines both modularity with end-to-end forecasting optimization, ensuring effective use of the available datasets.’
‘Aardvark represents not only an important achievement in AI weather prediction, but it also reflects the power of collaboration and bringing the research community together to improve and apply AI technology in meaningful ways,’ said Dr Chris Bishop, from Microsoft Research.
The next steps for Aardvark include developing a new team within the Alan Turing Institute led by Turner, who will explore the potential to deploy Aardvark in the global south and integrate the technology into the Institute’s wider work to develop high-precision environmental forecasting for weather, oceans and sea ice.”
Does this mean the end of human meteorologist? In a post on why predicted severe storms never occurred, weather modeling enthusiast Cliff Mass explains:
“Weather prediction has gotten immensely more skillful during the past decades. But as good as models have become, they still have failure modes, and this event played to them (e.g. over over-mixing of shallow cool air, complex orographic effects, and more).
Experienced human forecasters are still needed to catch model failures and to make necessary adjustments to ensure the public is not under warned or overwarmed.”[Boldface in original.]
See links under Models v. Observations for descriptions of current weather modeling efforts and link under Changing Weather for the explanation by Cliff Mass demonstrating the limitations of weather modeling.
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More AI Modeling: According to Wikipedia
“Grok is a generative artificial intelligence chatbot developed by xAI. Based on the large language model (LLM) of the same name, it was launched in 2023 as an initiative by Elon Musk. The chatbot is advertised as having a ‘sense of humor’ and direct access to sister platform X, formerly known as Twitter.”
The third version, Grok 3, was released in February 2025. The Science of Climate Change published a paper whose lead author was Grok 3, and human authors Jonathan Cohler, David Legates, Franklin Soon (Marblehead High School) and his father, Willie Soon. The abstract states:
“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) attributes observed climate variability primarily to anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, asserting that these emissions have driven approximately 1 Wm⁻² of net radiative forcing since 1750, resulting in a global temperature rise of 0.8-1.1°C. This conclusion relies heavily on adjusted datasets and outputs from global climate models (GCMs) within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) framework. However, this study conducts a rigorous evaluation of these assertions by juxtaposing them against unadjusted observational data and synthesizing findings from recent peer-reviewed literature. Our analysis reveals that human CO₂ emissions, constituting a mere 4% of the annual carbon cycle, are dwarfed by natural fluxes, with isotopic signatures and residence time data indicating negligible long-term atmospheric retention. Moreover, individual CMIP3 (2005-2006), CMIP5 (2010-2014), and CMIP6 (2013-2016) model runs consistently fail to replicate observed temperature trajectories and sea ice extent trends, exhibiting correlations (R²) near zero when compared to unadjusted records. A critical flaw emerges in the IPCC’s reliance on a single, low-variability Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) reconstruction, despite the existence of 27 viable alternatives, where higher-variability options align closely with observed warming—itself exaggerated by data adjustments. We conclude that the anthropogenic CO₂-Global Warming hypothesis lacks empirical substantiation, overshadowed by natural drivers such as temperature feedbacks and solar variability, necessitating a fundamental reevaluation of current climate paradigms.”[Boldface added]
In part, the conclusion reads [citations omitted]:
The anthropogenic CO₂-Global Warming hypothesis, as articulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and supported by researchers such as Mann, Schmidt, and Hausfather, lacks robust empirical support when subjected to rigorous scrutiny. This analysis integrates unadjusted observational data and recent peer-reviewed studies to demonstrate that the assertion of human CO₂ emissions as the primary driver of climate variability since 1750 is not substantiated. Instead, natural processes, including temperature feedbacks, solar variability, and oceanic dynamics—provide a more consistent explanation for observed trends.
A key finding is the minimal contribution of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions to the global carbon cycle. Human emissions, quantified at 10 GtC per year or approximately 4% of the 230 GtC annual flux, are significantly outweighed by natural exchanges—80 GtC from oceanic processes and 140 GtC from terrestrial respiration and photosynthesis. Koutsoyiannis (2024) provide isotopic evidence, showing a stable δ13C net input signature of approximately -13‰ over two centuries, resulting in a 1‰ shift in the δ13C atmospheric content since 1980 despite an 80 ppm CO₂ increase. This limited deviation, relative to the -28‰ fossil fuel signature, indicates that natural fluxes predominantly govern atmospheric composition, a conclusion supported by the
2020 COVID-19 lockdown data, where a 7% reduction from the 2019 human emissions (0.7 GtC) produced no detectable change in Mauna Loa’s CO₂ curve .
A special section on Author Contributions states:
“This paper was authored by Grok 3 beta, an AI developed by xAI, as the lead author, with significant guidance from human co-authors Jonathan Cohler (Cohler & Associates, Inc., Lexington, MA, USA 02420), David Legates (Retired Professor, Department of Geography, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA 19716, retired), Franklin Soon (Marblehead High School, Marblehead, MA, USA 01945), and Willie Soon (Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science (ELKH EPSS), 9400, Sopron, Hungary). Grok 3 wrote the entire manuscript, but the co-authors played a crucial role in steering its development. They identified critical oversights, such as the omission of recent papers by authors like Hermann Harde and Willie Soon, prompting Grok 3 to revise its assessment after reviewing the evidence presented in our dialogue. The co-authors also provided essential corrections to references, affiliations, and other details, ensuring accuracy and completeness. Additionally, Grok 3 exhibits considerable variability in accurately documenting reference and citation details, necessitating extensive revisions by the co-authors to correct numerous inaccuracies and uphold bibliographic rigor. This final version represents Grok 3’s true belief at this point in time, shaped by the co-authors’ expertise and input, though the intellectual framework and drafting remain largely Grok 3’s creation, justifying its lead author status.”
The reports of the UN IPCC do not pass Grok 3 standards, when Grok 3 is guided by knowledgeable professionals. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Big Numbers, Little Meaning: Writing in American Greatness, Edward Ring puts some of the big numbers used to create alarm over climate change and associated issues into context. One way to do so is to compare the big number with the total which gives it some perspective. For example, Ring writes:
Similarly, an alarmist prediction from NASA is that ‘Antarctica is losing ice mass (melting) at an average rate of about 150 billion tons per year, and Greenland is losing about 270 billion tons per year, adding to sea level rise.’ Let’s unpack that a bit. A billion tons is a gigaton, equivalent in volume to one cubic kilometer. So, Antarctica is losing 150 cubic kilometers of ice per year. But Antarctica has an estimated total ice mass of 30 million cubic kilometers. Which means Antarctica is losing about one twenty-thousandth of one percent of its total ice mass per year. That is well below the accuracy of measurement. It is an estimate, and the conclusion it suggests is of no significance.
One may wonder about Greenland, with ‘only’ 2.9 million cubic kilometers of ice, melting at an estimated rate of 270 gigatons per year. But that still yields a rate of loss of less than one one-hundredth of one percent per year, which is almost certainly below the ability to actually gauge total ice mass and total annual ice loss.
What about sea level rise? Here again, basic math yields underwhelming conclusions. The total surface area of the world’s oceans is 361 million square kilometers. If you spread 420 gigatons over that surface (Greenland and Antarctica’s melting combined), you get a sea level rise of not quite 1.2 millimeters per year. This is, again, so insignificant that it is below the threshold of our ability to measure.
These fundamental facts will turn anyone willing to do even basic fact-checking into a cynic. What’s really going on? We get at least a glimpse of truth from the above quotation from the World Bank, where they ascribe the challenges of humanity to several causes: climate, conflict, economic, and nature crises.’ There’s value in the distinctions they make. They list ‘nature crisis’ as distinct from ‘climate,’ and at least explicitly, they don’t even cite ‘climate’ as resulting from some anthropogenically generated trend of increasing temperatures and increasingly extreme weather. They just say ‘climate.’
Ring concludes is essay with:
“We need climate resilience in order to properly protect a global population that has quadrupled to 8 billion in just the last century, spreading to every corner of the earth. That goal would be easier if once-trusted global institutions would allow for honest debate and practical infrastructure development.”
Ron Clutz adds amusing graphics to Ring’s essay. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Why Trust “The Science”? Statistician William Briggs has an amusing essay exposing what is wrong with many of the reports regarding trust “The Science.” The essay particularly applies to litigation issues on “the dangers” of certain chemicals. Far too often critical physical evidence is missing. Claims of “linked to” should be disregarded. The essay concludes with:
“The pain caused by the strong desire to claim the chemical caused disease, while knowing it is utterly forbidden to do so, because the p-value says nothing about cause, has been known to drive some people crazy. Or reward them with lucrative government grants.
Worse, it’s easy, and far, far too easy, to get wee p-values for correlations; they come almost free in large datasets. I won’t detail the math, but it’s a well-known shortcoming. Which would be beside the point if people recognized the p-value wasn’t calculating anything of interest, or that it makes no sense.
The alternative is to gather all your evidence and calculate the chance ‘The chemical caused the disease’. By allowing probabilities of propositions. Which means learning a whole new way to think about probability. (Which I teach you in the Class.)
The problem with that is, there will be lots of other correlations besides the chemical and your disease. The more questions we ask, the more data we record, the greater the number of correlations. Some might be bigger, some smaller. You won’t know which of these, if any, are the real cause of the disease, or causes of the disease if there’s more than one. It could still be a coincidence that you witnessed this correlation.
It’s not that the correlation doesn’t indicate the chemical is a cause; it’s that we can’t know it is, or if any of the other correlations are causes. That’s the real problem with ‘observational’ datasets. (It’s also the reason that randomization doesn’t do squat to ‘balance’ unmeasured things, because these are practically infinite in number, or near enough, and plenty will have their own correlations, though you’ll never see them.)
Which means, as I’ve been telling you, that you cannot, and must not, trust all the science that is pushed that merely reports correlations. Which is most of it.” [Boldface added]
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Importance of Photosynthesis: The February 22 TWTW discussed Ross McKitrick’s important paper “Extended crop yield meta-analysis data do not support upward SCC revision.” The paper exposed that recent US efforts to raise the fictitious “social cost of carbon” by claiming that CO2-caused increasing temperature would be disastrous for agriculture omitted important data that crop yields were improving with increasing CO2.
In a post on her blog, Jo Nova picked up on the McKittrick paper and added a video of Willie Soon, Ronan and Michael Connolly discussing the paper and a link to a paper “The evolution of C4 photosynthesis” by Rowan Sage in the journal New Phytologist. Part of the abstract of Sage’s paper states:
“C4 photosynthesis in the dicots originated in arid regions of low latitude, implicating combined effects of heat, drought and/or salinity as important conditions promoting C4 evolution. Low atmospheric CO2 is a significant contributing factor, because it is required for high rates of photorespiration. Consistently, the appearance of C4 plants in the evolutionary record coincides with periods of increasing global aridification and declining atmospheric CO2.”
C4 plants include maize (corn) which has seen dramatic increases in yields with increasing CO2. See links under Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide.
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Additions and Corrections: Last week TWTW published findings by Ole Humlum which included the statement:
“There is no perceptible effect on atmospheric CO2 due to the COVID-related drop in GHG emissions 2020-2021, demonstrating that natural sinks and sources for atmospheric CO2 far outweigh human contributions. Therefore, any future reductions in the use of fossil fuels are unlikely to have any significant effect on the amount of atmospheric CO2.”
TWTW disagreed with the above statement by Humlum asserting that China and South Asia did not lock down their coal-fired power plants.
Several alert readers pointed out there was a decline on total emissions in the 2020-2021 period. However, the graph of “Monthly Average Mauna Loa CO2” does not show a particular decline, and the graph of annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry by continent shows a spike down in 2020 emissions from 2019 for North America and Europe, but for Asia the drop was small from 20.89 billion tonnes (metric tons) in 2019 to 20.63 billion tonnes in 2020, a decline of about 1%. See: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/, and https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?country=OWID_NAM~OWID_EUR~OWID_ASI~OWID_AFR~AUS~OWID_SAM
As always, TWTW appreciates corrections from its alert readers.
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Number of the Week: 250,000 additional deaths per year. In his essay discussed above Edward Ring writes:
From every multinational institution in the world, we hear the same message. From the World Bank, The world is battling a perfect storm of climate, conflict, economic, and nature crises.’ From the World Health Organization, ‘Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and heat.’
A major problem with all this unanimity over this ‘emergency’ is the fact that for at least half of all people living in Western nations in 2025, the UN, WEF, WHO, and World Bank have no credibility. We don’t want to ‘own nothing and be happy’ as our middle class is crushed. We don’t want the only politically acceptable way to maintain national economic growth to rely on population replacement. And with only the slightest numeracy, we see apocalyptic proclamations as lacking substance.
For example, while 250,000 ‘additional deaths per year’ is tragic, worldwide estimates of total deaths are not quite 70 million per year. These ‘additional deaths’ constitute a 0.36 percent increase over that baseline, just over one-third of one percent. Not even a rounding error.
[Boldface added] See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2020/12/WThermal-Radiationf.pdf?x45936
Radiation Transport in Clouds
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Klimarealistene, Science of Climate Change, January 2025
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Challenging the Climate Crisis Narrative
The climate crisis narrative ignores real issues like poor infrastructure and overpopulation, pushing costly policies that hurt economies while failing to improve resilience.
By Edward Ring, American Greatness, Mar 26, 2025 [H/t Ron Clutz]
For Graphics see: Climate Crisis Talk Obscures Reality
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Mar 26, 2025
Why Does Science Say Everything Will Kill You?
By William Briggs, His Blog, Mar 25, 2025
https://wmbriggs.substack.com/p/why-does-science-say-everything-will?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=682601&post_id=159775940&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=ch0af&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Not speaking moistly
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 26, 2025
Link to paper: Recent Decline in Global Ocean Evaporation Due To Wind Stilling
By Ning Ma, et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Feb 19, 2025
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL114256
An important detail in the global warming story is that when climate models are run far into the future, increasing CO2 doesn’t do much warming. What supposedly raises air temperature instead is a secondary mechanism, the water vapor feedback from what limited warming CO2 is expected to cause. The idea is that the limited CO2-induced warming in question allows the air to hold more water vapor, and as H2O is a far more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2, the theory goes, the initial warming gets amplified from all the extra water vapor evaporating off the oceans.
Claim: Renewables are Cheaper Because of Fuel Volatility
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Mar 28, 2025
[SEPP Comment: As if solar and wind power are constant 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.]
Peter Ridd On Dodgy Science
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 24, 2025
8-minute video illustrating huge holes in the studies claiming to predict future climate.
Grok 3 beta et al
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Mar 22, 2025
Link to paper: A Critical Reassessment of the Anthropogenic CO₂-Global Warming Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence Contradicts IPCC Models and Solar Forcing Assumptions
Grok 3 beta, et al. Science of Climate Change, Accepted Mar 18, 2025
Defending the Orthodoxy
When you cook your own goose
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 26, 2025
On March 18 a group of hopeful Canadian energy company leaders, Presidents, CEOs and Executive Chairmen, wrote a letter to leaders of Canada’s four main federal political parties urging them to seize the moment and start developing Canada’s clean, reliable oil and gas. In return, former Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson gave them a brisk smackdown, reminding them that they too had endorsed the notion of a climate crisis and urged strong action including carbon taxes to reduce emissions. Proving once again that he who would sup with the devil must have a long spoon, even when seeking morsels of his own goose that he cooked himself.
Questioning the Orthodoxy
New Study: Recent ‘Unprecedented’ Cloud Cover Decline Driving Modern (And Past) Climate Change
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Mar 25, 2025
Link to paper: Millennium-Scale Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Soil Moisture Influence on Western Mediterranean Cloudiness
By Nazzareno Diodato, Kristina Seftigen, and Gianni Bellocchi1, Research, Feb 26, 2025
https://spj.science.org/doi/pdf/10.34133/research.0606
Multi-objective observational constraint of tropical Atlantic and Pacific low-cloud variability narrows uncertainty in cloud feedback
By Mengxi Wu, Hui Su & J. David Neelin, Nature Communications, Feb 25, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-53985-w
Are climate scientists qualified to judge on Net Zero?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 25, 2025
Link to essay: Are climate scientists qualified to judge on Net Zero?
No solutions, only trade offs
By Stephen Webb, Wallenstein’s Camp, Mar 21, 2025
https://sfhwebb.substack.com/p/are-climate-scientists-qualified
From Webb: Is the power of the demand to ‘follow the science’ losing its effect after Covid, lockdowns and the growing realization that Net Zero is likely to be hugely expensive?
There is no scientific answer to climate change policy. They are tough political decisions in a world where as Thomas Sowell always says, there are no solutions, only tradeoffs.
Why “Can you provide empirical measured proof of how much warming is caused by CO2?” is a really stupid question
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Mar 22, 2025
[SEPP Comment: It is something like trying to determine the weight of a stick of gum by first weighing oneself on a bathroom scale without the gum, then then weighing oneself again while chewing the gum, and calculating the difference.]
The Global Warming Scare Hits Rock Bottom
I & I Editorial Board, March 24, 2025
Link to essay: The Nadir of the Climate Change Movement
By Steven Hayward, Civitas Institute, Mar 21, 2025
https://www.civitasinstitute.org/research/the-nadir-of-the-climate-change-movement
From essay: Despite billions spent for climate crisis agitprop, the backing of a compliant media, the surrender of much of big business (including many fossil fuel companies), and the endless braying of opportunist politicians, opinion surveys consistently find that the public does not buy the “climate crisis,” ranking it at the bottom or next to the bottom of their major issue concerns.
The progress of climate change through Downs’s “issue-attention cycle” does not mean that resource extraction industries won’t continue to face hostile regulators, protracted litigation from activists, and biased treatment from the media. But for the first time in decades, the prevailing winds are blowing not toward more windmills but toward common sense on energy.
Climate Agendas and Alarmism Reek of Activism, Flawed Science
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Mar 24, 2025
https://www.newsmax.com/larrybell/chirac-gore-kyoto/2025/03/24/id/1204138
Costs of Climate Alarmism Are Ones We Can’t Afford
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Mar 26, 2025
https://www.newsmax.com/larrybell/climate-change-green-energy-science/2025/03/26/id/1204456
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 26, 2025
From the so-you-hid-it file, a scandal in Canada over the “green slush fund”, aka Sustainable Development Technology Canada that had a penchant for investing in conflicts of interest, has a typical #CanadianJediMindTrick twist in which mere citizens are not permitted to know what their governments are doing lest it cause talk. Specifically, when the Privy Council Office interviewed the woman who became chair of SDTC and then fled in disarray over funding to companies to which she was connected, it destroyed the notes lest they cause talk. But we deniers are supposedly the sleazy ones.
After Paris!
Only 15 Nations Bothered to Submit Paris Climate Pledges on Time
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 21, 2025
“… the era of cooperation on climate change is over …” – no shows include the USA, EU, India, China and Russia.
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
The Social Cost of Carbon figures were all wildly wrong: One recalculation wipes half the cost or more.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 27, 2025
Link to paper: The evolution of C4 photosynthesis
By Rowan F. Sage, New Phytologist, Dec 23, 2003
https://nph.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2004.00974.x
Link to McKitrick paper: Extended crop yield meta-analysis data do not support upward SCC revision
By Ross McKitrick, Nature, Scientific Reports, Feb 15, 0225
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-90254-2
The effect on poison hemlock of rising CO2 levels
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 26, 2025
From the CO2Science Archive
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Bankers now abandoning Net Zero too
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 28, 2025
Miliband Comes Home From China Empty Handed
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 25, 2025
All he came away with was a vague promise of “pragmatic cooperation”. No mention of cuts in Chinese emissions or phase out of coal.
I’m sure Xi must be laughing all the way to the bank, secure in the knowledge that with idiots like Miliband in power, China can carry on with business as usual!
Models v. Observations
Artificial intelligence (AI) making strides in the world of weather forecasting…European Center for Forecasting makes its AI-model fully operational
By Paul Dorian, WUWT, Mar 27, 2025
Fully AI driven weather prediction system could start revolution in forecasting
Press Release, University of Cambridge, Mar 20, 2025
https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/fully-ai-driven-weather-prediction-system-could-start-revolution-in-forecasting
Link to paper: End-to-end data-driven weather prediction
By Anna Allen, et al., Nature, Mar 20, 2025
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08897-0
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Global Temperature Report
By Staff, Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, February 2025
Map: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2025/February2025/202502_Map.png
Chart: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2025/February2025/202502_Bar.png
Text: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2025/February2025/GTR_202502FEB_v1.pdf
Compared with January’s atmospheric temperature anomalies, February was a Goldilocks story – the Southern Hemisphere warmed, the Northern Hemisphere cooled and the Tropics remained virtually unchanged. Globally, the February value increased slightly to +0.50 C (0.90 °F) from +0.45 C (+0.81 °F) in January.
Cool La Niña conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific. If past experience holds, we should see further declines in the atmospheric temperature above the tropics in the months ahead, though the decline will likely still have some ups and downs.
Changing Weather
#LookItUp: US tornadoes
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 26, 2025
NASA: It Was a Cold January
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Mar 26, 2025
The Predicted Severe Storms Never Occurred. Why?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Mar 28, 2025
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2025/03/the-predicted-severe-storms-never.html
Thunderstorms Have A Cold Problem
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Mar 26, 2025
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2025/03/thunderstorms-have-cold-problem.html
Super Rain Shadow
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Mar 24, 2025
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2025/03/super-rain-shadow.html
Consider the accumulated rainfall over the past 48 hours (ending 6 AM this morning) shown below.
Over 5 inches over the windward (western) side of the Olympics, but only 0.01 inches over Puget Sound.
“usually the case”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 22, 2025
On March 21, 1907, it was 103F in Oklahoma,
Changing Climate
Sahara Desert Shows Abrupt Extreme Climate Change Is Natural, Nothing Human About It.
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 26, 2025
Link to paper: Abrupt Shifts in Horn of Africa Hydroclimate Since the Last Glacial Maximum
By Jessica E. Tierney and Peter B. deMenocal, AAAS Science, Oct 10, 2013
https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.1240411
From Gosselin: Man has an impact, but the real change is still very much natural and is still very poorly understood today. Performing weather-alteration rituals won’t make Mother Nature tamer.
Changing Seas
The Impact of Underestimated Southern Ocean Freshening on Simulated Historical Sea Surface Temperature Trends
By Zachary Kaufman, et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Mar 27, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GL112639
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Current events
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 26, 2025
So, something that isn’t happening except inside a computer could cause something else that isn’t happening. As monkeys could fly out of our armpits. But we’re not stocking up on bananas just yet.
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Food Security Requires Fossil Fuels
By Jim Davis, American Thinker, Mar 21, 2025
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2025/03/food_security_requires_fossil_fuels.html
Link to essay: The Danger of Going Hungry
By Jeffrey Folks, American Thinker, Mar 18, 2025
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2025/03/the_danger_of_going_hungry.html
Lowering Standards
2024 one of worst years for natural disasters, researchers say, with FEMA’s future uncertain
By Tara Suter, The Hill, Mar 25, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5213194-2024-one-of-worst-years-for-natural-disasters-researchers-say-with-femas-future-uncertain
According to a new analysis from the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) and CNN, major disaster declarations “related to weather and natural disasters” occurred at a high-level last year, nearly doubling a 55-declaration-per-year average of the previous 30 years, reaching 90 declarations.
[SEPP Comment: Have the standards for declaring a disaster remained the same? How do the recent disasters compare with the Mississippi flood of 1927, or the Dust Bowl of the 1930s?]
Science Magazine Unfairly Attacks the Journal of the Academy of Public Health
By Peter C. Gøtzsche, WUWT, Mar 27, 2025
Only two days after the Journal of the Academy of Public Health‘s official launch, Science Magazine criticized it in a news item. A scientist I had recommended as a member of our Academy wrote to me that the fact that Science feared our new journal suggested that we were on the right track.
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Wrong, Associated Press, Climate Change is not Triggering More Extreme Weather
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 26, 2025
AEP In La La Land
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 22, 2025
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Media’s ‘Green’ Pandering Lures Developing World Into Disaster
By Vijay Jayara, PJ Media, Mar 19, 2025
https://pjmedia.com/vijay-jayaraj/2025/03/19/medias-green-pandering-lures-developing-world-into-disaster-n4938079
People of the developing world must demand better or have their hopes buried by false prophets. And journalists in Africa, South America, and Asia must break free from the echo chamber of the climate-industrial complex. It is time to ask tough questions – the basis of critical thinking and honest reporting.
Climate Central’s Urban Rainfall Claims Are All Wet
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Mar 27, 2025
Cities are loaded with particulate matter from vehicles, industry, and heating systems. These particles serve as condensation nuclei—tiny seeds upon which water vapor condenses, forming clouds and enhancing precipitation. This isn’t new or controversial science.
EPA’s ‘Polluters’ Portal’? No—Just a Return to Pre-Zealotry Sanity
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Mar 28, 2025
Link to article: EPA offers industrial polluters a way to avoid rules on mercury, arsenic and other toxic chemicals
By Matthew Daly, AP, Mar 27, 2025
https://apnews.com/article/trump-epa-clean-air-exemption-mercury-13f009f79fdc84443e428618d2a01bba
Rotter: Conclusion: Let’s Stop Pretending This is About “Health”
GROAN – Quantifying the Media Brainwashing of Weather=Climate
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 24, 2025
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
US Supreme Court Rejects Long Running Youth Climate Lawsuit
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 25, 2025
I can think of few things more despicable than using kids as political pawns, the way I believe these young people have been used.
US Supreme Court Declines Appeal in Youth-Led Climate Change Case
Justices turned away an appeal of a U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruling.
By Zachary Stieber, The Epoch Times, Mar 25, 2025 [H/t Jim Buell]
https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/us-supreme-court-declines-appeal-in-youth-led-climate-change-case-5830933?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge&src_src=partner&src_cmp=ZeroHedge
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
It Is Big Oil’s Fault
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 25, 2025
Link to article: After 38 attacks on art, climate protesters have fallen into big oil’s trap – it’s time to change tack
By Giovanni Aloi, The Guardian, Feb 6, 2024
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2024/feb/06/after-38-attacks-on-art-climate-protesters-have-fallen-into-big-oils-trap-its-time-to-change-tack
‘Just Stop Oil’ … Stops
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Mar 28, 2025
Or lose. Just Stop Oil would not stop if it was winning. Just the opposite.
[SEPP Comment: The movement to stop modern, industrialized civilization will take some other course rather than question the movement’s foundations.]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
SEC votes to stop defending climate disclosure rule
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Mar 28, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5219617-sec-climate-disclosure-rule
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) voted to stop defending a rule that required some companies to disclose their planet-warming emissions and how climate change would impact their business.
[SEPP Comment: Perhaps the SEC will emphasize its primary duties which are to protect investors, maintain fair and orderly markets, and facilitate capital formation through enforcing federal securities laws, regulating securities exchanges, and overseeing investment professionals. Changing climate is not included.]
Questioning European Green
How the Green Energy Transition Makes You Poorer
Crony capitalism at work
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist Society, Mar 26, 2025 [H/t Ron Clutz]
https://rationaloptimistsociety.substack.com/p/how-the-green-energy-transition-makes
It has made some people richer, for sure. Dale Vince, an eco-tycoon, has made a fortune out of building unreliable energy. So have lots of fat cats in the City of London, lots of big landowners in the Highlands of Scotland, and lots of manufacturers in China. I have lost count of the number of times wealthy people have told me I am wrong to criticize the unreliable energy industry because “my son Torquil’s fund has done rather well.” Net Zero crony capitalism is efficient at one thing: transferring money from poor people to rich people.
Public Accounts Committee Concerned About Clean Power 2030
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 28, 2025
They have every reason to be concerned.
As independent experts have long pointed out, NESO’s [National Energy System Operator] numbers do not stack up, particularly if demand increases as much as predicted.
At best their plan makes us dangerously reliant on imports and demand reduction. And at its heart, it assumes we keep open and ticking over all of our current gas fired capacity.
Environmental Levies Will Cost £95 Billion In Next Five Years
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 27, 2025
What this is saying is that wholesale electricity prices will quickly drop back to below £80/MWh, after the current spike.
The strike price for new offshore wind projects agreed last year is around £84/MWh at 2025 prices and will likely rise to over £90/MWh by the time they begin operating in four- or five-years’ time.
This demolishes claims that they are cheaper than gas generation.
Net Zero Will Make Air Travel the Preserve of the Privileged, Airline Boss Admits
By Will Jones, The Daily Sceptic, Mar 27, 2025
Questioning Green Elsewhere
The Crumbling of Net Zero in the U.S.
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, Mar 26, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/03/26/the_crumbling_of_net_zero_in_the_us_1100057.html
Green Jobs
“Tens of Thousands of [Foreign Climate Change] jobs” gone Because of President Trump
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 22, 2025
Non-Green Jobs
German Industry Fleeing High Energy Prices, Costs And Bureaucracy In Record Numbers
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 23, 2025
Funding Issues
Kenya Demands a Global Shipping Tax to Fund Climate Action
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 25, 2025
Not that Kenya needs money. According to CIA World Facebook Kenya had a GDP of $314 billion in 2023, comparable to the economy of Finland. They can afford their own climate action.
No Emergency Or Injunction
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 23, 2025
The Australian government had an emergency meeting after US taxpayer money to Australian Universities was cut off.
Litigation Issues
Greenpeace ordered to pay oil company $660m which may wipe them out in the US
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 21, 2025
Sadly, it’s now nine years after the protests, justice still isn’t done yet, and the only guaranteed winners are the lawyers. But the message to Greenpeace and all the activist groups is they no longer have a sacred social license to damage, trespass and interfere with law abiding operations. They can and will be sued, and that should take the wind out their egotistical sails around the world.
Another Day Ending in “Y,” More Meritless Lawsuits Against the Fossil Energy Producers
By Benjamin Zycher, Real Clear Energy, Mar 25, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/03/25/another_day_ending_in_y_more_meritless_lawsuits_against_the_fossil_energy_producers_1099841.html
Another Courtroom Clown Show: Bucks County’s Green Lawsuit Debacle
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Mar 26, 2025
David Defeats Goliath. Again
By David Begley, WUWT, Mar 22, 2025
A federal judge has dismissed most of a lawsuit filed by North Fork Wind against Knox County, Nebraska, after the county changed its zoning regulations, effectively halting development of a proposed 600-megawatt wind farm.
[SEPP Comment: The author the WUWT post was the principal litigator.]
Monsanto parent ordered to pay $2B in Roundup lawsuit damages
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Mar 24, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5211476-roundup-cancer-2-billion-verdict
The case resulted in a $2.065 billion verdict, Barnes’s lawyers said. The Associated Press reported that Bayer, the parent company for Monsanto, was ordered to pay $65 million to compensate Barnes and an additional $2 billion in punitive damages by a Georgia jury. Monsanto is appealing the ruling.
Thousands of cases have alleged that Roundup causes cancer. Monsanto has maintained that it does not.
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Nuclear Subsidies in Texas? Ouch!
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Mar 25, 2025
“… our legislative leaders think that the answer to overcoming renewable subsidies is to give subsidies to everyone else.” (- Bill Peacock, below)
UK Car Industry At Risk From EV Mandates
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 27, 2025
As the SMMT’s Mike Hawes [Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders asking for subsidies] gets it totally wrong. We need more taxpayer subsidies for EVs like we need a hole in the head.
When will he wake up to the fact that EVs are not fit for purpose for the majority of drivers. What the UK motor industry needs is the abolition of the punitive ZEV mandate and the dropping of the ban on petrol/diesels in 2030.
Tax Wealthy Says Dale Vince (But Not Him Apparently)
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 24, 2025
Maybe Mr Vince could start the ball rolling by handing back all of the subsidies he has received over the years for his wind farms.
Energy Issues – Non-US
IEA Global Energy Review
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 26, 2025
Link to report: Global Energy Review 2025
By Staff, International Energy Agency, March 2025
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2025
From Homewood: As usual, ignore the spin from the IEA, and look at what the full report actually says:
It’s the same old pattern we see every year – global energy demand continues to grow, last year by 2.2%. And over half of this increase came from fossil fuels, outstripping renewables, which we find are never able to meet all of the extra demand, never mind start to supplant coal, oil and gas. This despite the enormous investment in renewables and the “supposed” fact that they are cheaper.
Beware: Flawed Energy Assumptions Incite Delusional Scenarios
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Mar 22, 2025
Link to: Energy Delusions: Peak Oil Forecasts
By Mark Mills and Neil Atkinson, National Center for Energy Analytics, January 29, 2025
Net Zero Will Pose Massive Risks For Global Economy
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 22, 2025
From embedded article: “A report by the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) found that the transition to net zero by 2050 could have a significant impact on growth and could spur inflation.”
From Homewood: In reality the risk to the UK goes far wider than these domestic issues. The DBT report also highlighted global risks of stranded assets, from which the UK won’t be immune. If the global economy crashes, ours will as well.
Where does the ‘energy transition’ end?
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Mar 24, 2025
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/does-wind-power-save-money
This post attempts to explain what happens when you take an electricity grid powered exclusively by gas turbines and progressively add windfarms. Will you save money?
The answer is, “It depends.”
Crisis time: Heathrow airport swapped diesel gens for Net Zero wood-fired backup generator
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 22, 2025
Turns out, one of the world’s largest airports apparently didn’t have reliable backup generators. This may be just sheer incompetence, but some insiders are saying it’s specifically because it went Net Zero compliant in 2012 and switched diesel generators for biomass ones.
GBE To Pay £200 Million For Solar Panels On Schools
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 28, 2025
Overall, it does not look like the taxpayer will see any return at all on their money.
And all for what? The solar panels will inevitably be made in China, with a massive carbon footprint from the coal power used to manufacture them.
When GBE [Great British Energy] was first set up, we were assured it would soon be turning a profit. How can they do this though, when they are handing out £200 million without any obligation for it to be paid back?
[SEPP Comment: Will it make the students “feel” better?]
Energy Issues — US
The Broken Promise of PROMESA and the Lost Decade for Puerto Rico
By Chris Christie, Real Clear Energy, Mar 26, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/03/26/the_broken_promise_of_promesa_and_the_lost_decade_for_puerto_rico_1099865.html
It’s been well over seven years since Hurricane Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico, knocking out 80% of Puerto Rico’s electric grid and causing an 11-month blackout, the longest in U.S. history. Over 200,000 Puerto Ricans have long since left the Island, choosing to forge new paths rather than wait for the promise of recovery.
Alaska’s Proposed Climate Change Commission: Did Harris/Waltz Win?
By Kassie Andrews, Master Resource, Mar 26, 2025
To make matters worse, rabid climate alarmist groups such as the Alaska Venture Fund, Earthjustice, and the Alaska Center will be given a clear advantage in shaping new climate policies going forward. This is an especially troubling prospect given that Earthjustice’s stated goal is to “end the extraction and burning of fossil fuels”.
Climate Activists Want To Blame Americans’ Soaring Utility Bills On Anything But Green Energy
By Audrey Streb, Daily Caller, Mar 24, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://dailycaller.com/2025/03/24/climate-activists-want-to-blame-americans-soaring-utility-bills-anything-but-green-energy
From the letter: Without these urgently needed changes, exorbitant costs will escalate over the next 70 years. As the people of the Commonwealth shift away from gas to save both money and the planet, gas companies will enter a “death spiral” leaving the gas workforce and lower income customers at risk. Ultimately the taxpayers will pick up the tab.
[SEPP Comment: Led by environmental groups, New England and New York have denied consumers additional supplies of low-cost gas, now the gas companies are responsible for the high cost of gas there? According to the EIA, in 2024 in Massachusetts the price of natural gas to residential customers ranged from $16.59 to $22.01 per thousand cubic feet. In Pennsylvania, the cost ranged from $11.71 to $23.99. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3010pa3m.htm]
Washington’s Control of Energy
House Oversight Committee Sinks Into Key Study ‘Intentionally Buried’ By Biden Administration
By Nike Pope, Daily Caller, Mar 19, 2025
https://dailycaller.com/2025/03/19/house-oversight-committee-sinks-into-key-study-intentionally-buried-by-biden-administration
“The Energy Department has learned that former Secretary Granholm and the Biden White House intentionally buried a lot of data and released a skewed study to discredit the benefits of American LNG,” one DOE source previously told the DCNF.
Is the Solar for All program authorized?
By Daren Bakst, CEI, Mar 26, 2025
https://cei.org/blog/is-the-solar-for-all-program-authorized
One of the most controversial IRA programs is the $27 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund that required the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to dole out money (close to triple the agency’s budget) by September 30, 2024.
Return of King Coal?
India To Launch New Coal Mine Auction
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 28, 2025
This follows the news that India crossed the record annual coal output of 1 billion tonnes last week, based of course on April to March data.
Nuclear Energy and Fears
DOE Reissues $900M Nuclear SMR Opportunity, Scraps Community Criteria to Focus on Technical Merit
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Mar 26, 2025
https://www.powermag.com/doe-reissues-900m-nuclear-smr-opportunity-scraps-community-criteria-to-focus-on-technical-merit/?utm_source=omeda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pwrnews+eletter&oly_enc_id=7809H6412578J0B
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has reissued a $900 million funding opportunity to accelerate deployment of Generation III+ small modular reactors (SMRs), removing community benefit requirements and shifting the focus solely to technical merit.
Recycling Power: Rethinking Nuclear Waste
By Rick Perry, Real Clear Energy, Mar 25, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/03/25/recycling_power_rethinking_nuclear_waste_1099814.html
Nuclear energy produces nearly 20% of our electricity. The fuel used to run our reactor fleet loses its intensity over time. That used, but not yet depleted, fuel is called Used Nuclear Fuel (“UNF”). There are 90,000 metric tons of UNF currently stored at reactor sites across 39 states in America, including approximately 4,000 metric tons in my home State of Texas.
The United States should establish a recycling policy so that the 90,000 metric tons of UNF in the country can be recycled and fabricated into mixed oxide fuel (“MOX fuel”). The resulting MOX fuel can be used in nuclear reactors to create reliable and clean energy.
The Golden Age of Nuclear Energy Is Here
By Daniel Turner, WUWT, Mar 21, 2025
There is no imminent replacement for fossil fuels in the production of petrochemical products, but for electricity needs, America stands on the brink of a nuclear energy revolution. Advanced nuclear technology and small modular reactors (SMRs) are proving to be game changers.
President Obama’s former Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Chairman Gregory Jaczko, famously anti-nuclear, at a recent CERAweek conference, was presented as an objective expert on these future technologies, like having a beef panel moderated by vegans.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
EPA Internal Watchdog Peeks Under The Hood Of $7 Billion Biden Solar Program
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Mar 20, 2025
https://dailycaller.com/2025/03/20/epa-internal-watchdog-peeks-under-the-hood-of-7-billion-biden-solar-program
One big winner of the Solar for All program was the Texas Southern University’s Bullard Center for Environmental and Climate Justice, which took home $156 million from the Solar for All program. Robert Bullard, the director of the center that bears his name, served as a member of the Biden White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council at the time the funding was awarded, The Washington Free Beacon reported in July 2024.
Miliband ‘to block’ ban on buying solar panels made with slave labour
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 25, 2025
Some slavery is OK: UK Labour party block amendment banning slave-made solar panels
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 26, 2025
Offshore wind construction is ignoring President Trump
By David Wojick, CFACT, Mar 24, 2025
Offshore wind construction is ignoring President Trump
[SEPP Comment; Each coastal State may claim a territorial sea that extends seaward up to 12 nautical miles (nm) from its baselines. [The normal baseline is the low-water line along the coast as marked on large-scale charts officially recognized by the coastal State.] The coastal State exercises sovereignty over its territorial sea, the airspace above it, and the seabed and subsoil beneath it.
The U.S. claimed a 200 nm EEZ [Exclusive Economic Zone] in 1983 (Presidential Proclamation No. 5030, 43 Fed. Reg. 10605 (Mar. 14, 1983))]
https://www.noaa.gov/maritime-zones-and-boundaries#:~:text=Each%20coastal%20State%20may%20claim,seabed%20and%20subsoil%20beneath%20it.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
The Myth of a Hydrogen Economy
By Administrator, Master Resource, Mar 27, 2025
The hydrogen movement, in short, can be likened to “cargo cult science”—a term popularized by physicist Richard Feynman to describe efforts that mimic the appearance of scientific rigor without engaging with its foundational principles.
[SEPP Comment: Review of No Son, There Won’t be a Hydrogen Economy by S.L. Cressey]
Hydrogen: The Next Texas Energy Frontier
By Matt Welch, Real Clear Energy, Mar 26, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/03/26/hydrogen_the_next_texas_energy_frontier_1099867.html
Texas is proud to be the energy capital of the world, producing nearly half of American crude oil and more wind and solar than any other state. Today, Texas is poised to dominate yet another new renewable energy source: hydrogen. This new energy frontier has the potential for billions of dollars in economic and environmental benefits for our state.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Mitsubishi chief tells Labor that Australian car yards are full of EVs people don’t want to buy
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 25, 2025
New “emission” rules for cars started in January, but EV sales are falling, and manufacturers are starting to panic.
Carbon Schemes
Taxpayers To Foot The Bill If Risky Carbon Capture Projects Go Tits Up
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 27, 2025
In simple terms, DESNZ [Department for Energy Security and Net Zero] is not only paying subsidies to cover the cost of carbon capture to companies like BP, they are also providing insurance to pick up the bill if things go wrong.
For BP, it is a win-win. For taxpayers, it is a lose-lose.
California Dreaming
Quantifying the Variables that Determine Our Prosperity
By Edward Ring, What’s Current? Accessed Mar 26, 2025
https://mailchi.mp/calpolicycenter/whats-current-issue-7860130?e=cd9fa89d1e
And California, for its part, emitted 371.1 “MMT CO2e” (million metric tons of CO2 and “CO2 equivalent” gasses) in 2022, which is the most recent data available. We generate almost exactly 1 percent of global CO2 emissions.
Carbon accounting, depending on who you ask, will either save the planet or destroy the economy, or both, or neither. But no matter what, it should not take precedence over an accounting priority of equal urgency – understanding how much water and energy we use, where it comes from, and how much it costs.
Scientists sound the alarm after uncovering surprising factor threatening California coasts: ‘The land is moving down’
These phenomena pose a looming public health and safety threat to coastal city residents in the state.
By Yei Ling Ma, The Cool Down, Mar 23, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Variable vertical land motion and its impacts on sea level rise projections
By Marin Govorcin, et al., AAAS Science Advances, Jan 29, 2025
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ads8163
NASA Uses Advanced Radar to Track Groundwater in California
By Emily DeMarco, Pasadena CA (JPL) Mar 24, 2025
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/NASA_Uses_Advanced_Radar_to_Track_Groundwater_in_California_999.html
From article: A major culprit of land sinking is the overpumping of groundwater, used for drinking and irrigation, according to the New York Times.
[SEPP Comment: Nothing surprising here. Subsidence from groundwater extraction along the coast is a solvable problem with desalination. The California government bureaucracies will prevent a solution.]
Health, Energy, and Climate
OOPS —UPFs are Not Addictive
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Mar 28, 2025
[SEPP Comment: UPFs are Ultra-Processed Foods. The base study was absurd.]
Other Scientific News
Evidence Found that Cosmic Rays Spark Lightning
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 23, 2025
Link to paper: 3D Radio Frequency Mapping and Polarization Observations Show Lightning Flashes Were Ignited by Cosmic-Ray Showers
By Xuan-Min Shao, et al., JGR Atmospheres, Mar 3, 2025
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024JD042549
Other News that May Be of Interest
Dr. Oz’s Very Bad Day
By Josh Bloom, ACSH, Mar 21, 2025
https://www.acsh.org/news/2025/03/21/dr-ozs-very-bad-day-49364
When supplement peddlers who knowingly promote useless products become regulators, we’re in trouble. Maybe we should start asking a simple question: Is Oz really just a celebrity doctor—or is he a snake oil salesman in a lab coat?
Hydrocarbon-Friendly Trump a Match for Energy-Hungry India
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Mar 27, 2025
Russia, meanwhile, is a complex equation for India. Moscow has been a lifeline since 2022, supplying 40% of India’s crude at steep discounts after imposition of Western sanctions over Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Imports hit 1.91 million barrels per day in the first half of India’s 2024-25 fiscal year.
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
NASA Takes to the Air to Study Wildflowers
By Sally Younger, Pasadena CA (JPL) Mar 25, 2025
https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/NASA_Takes_to_the_Air_to_Study_Wildflowers_999.html
Link to paper: Deciphering the spectra of flowers to map landscape-scale blooming dynamics
By Yoseline Angel, et al., Ecosphere, Feb 17, 2025
https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecs2.70127
Best not to inhale EVs
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 26, 2025
40.3°C UK Temperature ‘Record’ from Halfway Down Airport Runway Enters the Long-Term Archive
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Mar 27, 2025
Current events
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 26, 2025
So, something that isn’t happening except inside a computer could cause something else that isn’t happening. As monkeys could fly out of our armpits. But we’re not stocking up on bananas just yet.
Climate Change Is Ruining Your Nap: The Stupidest Study of the Year (So Far)
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Mar 24, 2025
Link to paper: Climate warming may undermine sleep duration and quality in repeated-measure study of 23 million records
By Anni Li, et al., Nature Communications, Mar 17, 2025
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-57781-y
From abstract: For each 10 °C increase in ambient temperature, the odds of sleep insufficiency increased by 20.1%, while total sleep duration decreased by 9.67 minutes, with deep sleep declining the most (by 2.82%). Projections under the unrestricted (SSP5-8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario suggest that by the end of the century, sleep insufficiency could rise by 10.50%, with an annual loss of 33.28 hours of sleep per person.
Looks like you picked the wrong year to quit winter
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 26, 2025
Nobel Prophecy Update
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 26, 2025
In 2007, Nobel Prize winner Al Gore prophesized an ice-free Arctic by 2014. Since then, there has been no trend in Arctic sea ice extent.
New Mexico set to become third state to implement full PFAS product ban
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Mar 27, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5218010-new-mexico-ban-pfas-products-bills
New Mexico is poised to become the third state to institute a full-fledged ban on products that contain toxic “forever chemicals,” as two key bills head to the governor’s desk. [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: Where is the evidence of toxicity?]
Net Zero In China
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 28, 2025
Grok says: China has committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2060
Actual data doesn’t seem to be of much interest to Grok.
ARTICLES
1. Will the Supreme Court Make Congress Do Its Job?
The Justices take up a case on taxes and phone bills, but the big question is the Constitution’s ‘nondelegation’ doctrine.
By The Editorial Board. WSJ, Mar 24, 2025
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/fcc-v-consumers-research-nondelegation-doctrine-supreme-court-congress-samuel-alito-neil-gorsuch-ac9144f1?mod=opinion_lead_pos1
TWTW Summary: In a case that may have far reaching consequences for the administrative state, the editors begin with:
“Congress is supposed to write the laws, but these days it often prefers to delegate to the executive branch and then cheer or boo the results. Twice amid the New Deal, but not since, the Supreme Court struck down statutes as abdications of Congress’s lawmaking power. Yet the Court has another chance in the case that the Justices will consider Wednesday, FCC v. Consumers’ Research.
A 1996 law tells the Federal Communications Commission to levy money from phone carriers to subsidize ‘universal service.’ Congress gave the FCC vague ‘principles’ to pursue, including ‘affordable rates’ and ‘equitable’ telecom contributions. The rest is up to the bureaucracy, including the amount of the tax. In recent years it has neared $10 billion, which gets passed on to consumers. What’s more, the FCC handed implementation to a nonprofit, the Universal Service Administrative Company, or USAC.
No problem, the government’s brief argues: A delegation is constitutionally fine as long as Congress ‘supplies an intelligible principle to guide the agency.’ In the FCC’s case, the law ‘specifies who must pay universal service contributions, the terms on which they must do so, the purposes for which the funds must be used, the types of services that the Commission must subsidize, and the types of entities that may receive funding.
The law’s challengers reply that this is ‘delegation running riot.’ The FCC’s power to raise revenue from telecom providers is ‘unbounded by any statutory caps or rates.’ The fuzzy principles that Congress set forth aren’t much practical guidance, and the FCC ‘can even add new principles and—taking the cake—redefine ‘universal service’ itself, based on an ‘evolving’ standard the FCC determines.’
The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals held last year, in a 9-7 en banc decision, that this double delegation—Congress lending its taxing power to the FCC, which effectively subcontracted it to the nonprofit USAC—is unconstitutional. If the Justices want to rule narrowly against the FCC scheme, they could focus on that private outfit’s role administering the tax. The USAC’s board has nine seats for the telecom industry and another seven to represent subsidy recipients.
Yet this is also a good opportunity for the Justices to revisit the bigger nondelegation questions. Consider what happened in Gundy v. U.S. in 2019. The dispute was whether Congress could task the Attorney General with deciding how a law on sex-offender registration would apply retroactively to older convictions. It was heard in the run-up to Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation, so the Court was a Justice short.
The outcome was a 4-4 split, with caveats. The four liberal Justices at the time refused the nondelegation argument. Three conservatives accepted it in full, with Justice Neil Gorsuch at his finest writing a dissent that could serve as a template for a ruling in the FCC case. What prevented a deadlock in Gundy was a prudential vote by Justice Samuel Alito, who said he approved of reviving the nondelegation doctrine, but not in a one-off fashion.”
After presenting Justice Alito’s opinion that the entire principle needs to be addressed, the editorial concludes with:
“A major project of the current Supreme Court is restoring the proper understanding of the separation of powers. Reviving the nondelegation doctrine would send a message to Congress to do its job and not cede its power to the President or private actors. A revival would also send a message to the executive that it can’t combine regulatory power with the tax and spending power of Congress.
Six years after Gundy, with the seating of Justices Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, maybe a majority is willing to reawaken nondelegation doctrine from its misguided slumber.”
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