A possible preview of the Western Conference play-in tournament took place on Tuesday night as the Golden State Warriors traveled to Crypto.com Arena to take on the Los Angeles Lakers in their final home game of the season.
This was the fourth time these two teams played each other this season, with the Warriors winning the final game of the regular season 134-120. The Warriors are now half a game behind the Lakers with three games left.
But these two Western Conference opponents are no strangers to high-stakes games, and with the regular season ending Sunday and the play-in tournament on the horizon, all eyes will be on this epic future postseason battle.
From matchup respectively.
1. What is the most important lesson from Tuesday's game?
Ramona Shelburne: Without Anthony Davis in the middle of their defense, the Lakers can't stop anyone. The Warriors put up 70 points in the first half, 104 in three quarters and finished with 134, seemingly getting to the rim at will without Davis posing a threat on defense. The same thing happened Sunday against Minnesota when Davis left with an eye injury. He's been remarkably durable this season, but it really hurt the Lakers that he hasn't featured in the last two games as they fight to get out of next week's 9/10 play-in game.
Bobby Marks: No Davis and no chance. As Ramona mentioned, the Lakers' defense was a revolving door without Davis on the court. After winning eight of their nine games before Sunday, the Lakers have now lost two games in a row and their chances of getting out of the play-in are slim. The other takeaway is not to discount Golden State in a playoff-like environment. The Warriors would still have to beat the Lakers and either the Suns or Kings if the season ended today just to reach the first round. But the Warriors played with a sense of urgency, as evidenced by their veterans (Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green) combining to score 82 points.
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Kevin Pelton: Golden State is keen to avoid the 10th seed in the West play-in tournament and must win two road games to make the playoffs. Thanks to a 3-1 series win over the Lakers, the Warriors are now in the head-to-head tiebreaker and even in the losing zone, meaning they'll likely finish ninth and play a rematch next week if both teams win – – in anticipation more complex multi-team relationships.
Both the Warriors and Lakers have just one game left to play against an opponent that still has something to offer – the New Orleans Pelicans – who visit the Warriors on Friday before hosting the Lakers on Sunday. That puts New Orleans in an interesting position to determine where the Lakers land, which is relevant because the Pelicans are keeping the Lakers' first-round draft pick unless they decide to move it to 2025. (Of course, New Orleans has its own playoff seedings to make it, and the Pelicans will certainly want to stay in sixth place to avoid struggling with the play-in themselves.)
A Lakers win would have nearly condemned Golden State to 10th place in the West. The Warriors' win makes the final five days of the regular season even more interesting.
2. Who is more dangerous in a one-game scenario: LeBron or Steph?
Shelburne: This is a pretty high-level problem for any team that has one player and only needs to win one game. Imagine if they were on the same team as was discussed between the Lakers and Warriors owners before the trade deadline. In this case, James gets a slight nod for being so on the ball and able to control the game himself. Curry needs someone to run the Warriors' offense with and can be tested by bigger, more physical teams. But he's still the most electric offensive player around when he's in the middle of one of his upsets.
Markings: James and Curry have each played two play-in games since the tournament began in 2021. James is 2-0 while Curry's Golden State team lost twice in 2021. We saw the magic in Curry last year in a winner-take-all Game 7 in Sacramento. But that was last year, and I trust James and especially his Lakers teammates to win it all this year. In games decided in the clutch this season, the Lakers have a record of 23:9 and have the best winning percentage along with Dallas. Golden State has now played 45 such games and is one game under .500.
Pelton: Can I answer “yes”? As Bobby notes, Curry is less than a year removed from one of the greatest one-game performances in NBA history. Meanwhile, James has begun his second career by focusing his energy on peaking in the biggest moments, as we saw in last year's run from the play-in to the conference finals. Ultimately, I would go with James because of his ability to control a game on both sides if he increases his defensive intensity.
3. Which player on these two teams, other than LeBron and Steph, is the biggest X-factor heading into the play-in and possibly the playoffs?
Pelton: Klay Thompson. When Thompson makes shots, the Warriors still look like contenders. Despite losing his best game of the season, according to Basketball-Reference.com, he is 8-1 when Thompson scores 20 or better, including on Tuesday night. In the 12 games in which Thompson scored under five, the Warriors are 2-10. That may have been bad news in a game against the Lakers, considering how much Thompson has struggled against them in the past, including shooting 34% in last year's playoff loss, but he has in his last two Played a total of 53 points on 19 of 31 shooting in LA
Shelburne: I'm choosing Draymond Green because the Warriors simply aren't the Warriors if he doesn't do his best on both ends of the court. He is the anchor of their defense and the engine of their offense. He also shot the ball so well from behind the 3-point arc (39.5%) that teams have to respect him – creating space for Curry and others. On Tuesday night, his five 3-pointers in the first half set the tone for the Warriors. He's doing all of this now with a troublesome lower back that has kept him out of several games recently.
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Markings: The obvious answer is Anthony Davis, considering he's the best player on both rosters and isn't named James or Curry. But D'Angelo Russell is the deciding factor for the Lakers in how far they go. Russell is the engine of a starting lineup (Austin Reaves, James, Rui Hachimura and Davis) that is 16-6 and plus-6.3 points per 100 possessions. The Lakers are 15-3 in games in which Russell scores more than 25 points and 9-2 when he attempts 11 or more 3-pointers. But in 27 career playoff games, Russell is shooting 38.9% from the field, 32.9% from 3s and averaging 14.1 points.
BONUS! What is the playoff ceiling for each team if they enter?
Shelburne: I picked the Warriors to win it all at the start of the season and still believe they can do it with the right draw. In other words – if they make the playoffs and avoid Denver for as long as possible. This also applies to the Lakers. Both teams have the talent and playoff experience to beat anyone. Of course, avoiding Denver isn't really a strategy, and I can't see how either team can beat the defending champions in a seven-game series.
Markings: It depends on the opponent in the first round. A first-round series in Denver, and the Lakers or Warriors will start their vacation at the end of April. Minnesota will certainly be a challenge, especially when Karl-Anthony Towns returns from his left knee injury. The Lakers were 1-2 against the Timberwolves, but one of those losses was by two points. Golden State remained winless in the three meetings.
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Oklahoma City's starting five have never played in a playoff series together, and inexperience could be a factor if the Thunder draw one of the teams. As the playoffs begin, Oklahoma is the second youngest team (after Orlando) with players averaging over 20 minutes. Starters Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort and reserves Gordon Hayward, Bismack Biyombo and Mike Muscala are the only players with playoff experience. The Lakers were 3-1 against Oklahoma City and 1-3 against Golden State. Since the play-in tournament began in 2021, no team that finished ninth or 10th (Memphis reached the first round in 2021) has advanced past the first round.
Pelton: The cap will be determined by when they face the Nuggets. I would like to see another Denver-Golden State series after their game in 2022, where the Nuggets were without both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. But the defending champions have won all seven games against these two teams and would be heavy favorites.
Given their playoff experience and star power, the Lakers and Warriors would have a realistic chance in any other possible first-round matchup – and possibly the second round if Denver is on the other side of the bracket. Let's be clear, this is different than last season, when the Lakers reached the conference finals without beating a team that had won more than 51 games. This year's path may require defeating two teams with better records than the 2022-23 Grizzlies (51-31).
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