There is only one game on the NBA playoff schedule tonight: Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, Game 2.
Game 1 was a slugfest and the Pacers were in control most of the time. The high tempo, the high score and, above all, the substitute players were an advantage for Indiana. And the controversial finish has to make the Pacers desperate to go out and try to win Game 2.
Let's take a closer look at this match and find some interesting angles for players and/or teams to exceed expectations tonight.
Tyrese Haliburton over 16.5 points (-115): Haliburton had a poor performance in Game 1, scoring just six points on 2 of 6 shooting from the field and three crucial turnovers in crunch time. Beyond the numbers, however, he clearly wasn't aggressive, missing multiple shot opportunities and appearing indecisive. Health is the most important thing in the room as Haliburton is dealing with ongoing back spasms, but he reportedly expressed his intention to play much better in Game 2 several times on Tuesday. In the first round, Haliburton rebounded from a slow start (10.5 PPG). (through Games 1 and 2) to average 18.8 PPG in Games 3 through 6. I expect Haliburton to step up and put some nice numbers on the board tonight.
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TJ McConnell over 10.5 points (-115): While Haliburton needs to get back on his feet, McConnell just needs to keep doing what he's been doing. He came off the bench in his last two games and played great for the Pacers. In the closeout game against the Bucks, he dropped 20 points and nine assists in 23 minutes, followed by 18 points in 22 minutes in the first game against the Knicks. McConnell led the second unit with energy, which changed the momentum of these two games. And he stepped up on defense, notching seven steals in those two games and limiting Jalen Brunson to just 2 of 9 shooting in 1-on-1 defense. McConnell should play a big role again tonight and should exceed that line.
Josh Hart over 12.5 rebounds (-125): Hart had an excellent all-around performance in Game 1, scoring 24 points with 8 assists, 3 boards and a blocked shot. But that's the icing on the cake of his most enduring contribution: breaking the glass. Hart grabbed 13 rebounds in Game 1, the fifth time he had at least 13 boards in seven playoff games. With the official news that center Mitchell Robinson will be out for the foreseeable future, I expect Hart to continue his assault on the glass.
Knicks Money Line (-175): The Knicks won Game 1 by four points in a game they had lost until a furious late comeback. It was a high-scoring game played to the pace of the Pacers. The Pacers' second unit controlled the action, and it could happen again against a Knicks team with only a seven-man rotation, which is why I don't feel entirely comfortable putting the 4.5 points in the spread. Still, I believe the Knicks are clearly the better team and the Pacers have no answer for Brunson. The Knicks are playing at home and just showed they have a knack for winning close games down the stretch, with Brunson being the closer. According to BPI, the Knicks have a 60.8% chance of winning the game, with a projected margin of 3.3 points.
Predictions and injury reports
Basketball Power Index from ESPN Analytics. Infringement aggregation from Rotowire.com. Odds according to ESPN BET
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks
East Semifinals – Game 2
8 p.m. Madison Square Garden, New York
Records (Against the spread)
Pacers: 47-35 (44-36-2)
Knicks: 50-32 (44-37-1)
Line: Knicks (-4.5) In total: 218.5
Money line: Pacers (+165), Knicks (-195)
BPI forecast: Knicks by 3.3, 61% direct increase, 218.0 total points.
Injury report:
Pacer: Tyrese Haliburton, (GTD – Rear); Bennedict Mathurin, (OUT – shoulder)
Knicks: Bojan Bogdanovic, (OUT – foot); Duane Washington Jr., (OUT – Knee); Julius Randle, (OUT – Shoulder); Mitchell Robinson, (OUT – Ankle)
