From the MANHATTAN CONTRARIAN
Francis Menton
We are quickly approaching what I call the “Green Energy Wall.” The “wall” is a combination of real obstacles, part cost, part physical, that will inevitably end the pursuit of “net-zero” emissions-free electricity generation long before the zero emissions goal is achieved. I first identified the approaching wall in this post in December 2021 and pointed out in this follow-up post in November 2023 that it was “gradually coming into focus.” Anyone who is paying attention and can do basic arithmetic knows that we are some jurisdictions approaching that wall much faster than others. (New York has voluntarily put itself at the forefront.)
What we don't know is what impact the fall of the Berlin Wall will have: Widespread and frequent power outages? Regular, forced load shedding brownouts? Triple or quadruple electricity prices? A political uprising when people realize they have been deceived by scammers who claim an energy transition is easy and inexpensive? Or maybe it's all of the above.
Now the years are slowly passing by. The impossibility of the situation we are dealing with is becoming increasingly obvious, but so far there is no obvious crisis. Will it arrive in a year or two? Or maybe five?
Think of New York. Numerous laws and regulations require us to meet energy transition requirements that are simply not being met. The fantasies include two major laws passed in 2019, one for New York State (Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act) and the other for the city (Local Law 97); and vehicle emissions standards adopted by the New York City Department of Environmental Protection in 2022.
Start with vehicle emissions standards. In 2022, the New York DEC adopted the standards and requirements of the California Air Resources Board's Advanced Clean Cars II regulation. California regulations require a minimum percentage of vehicles sold to be “zero-emissions” starting with the 2026 model year, then rapidly increasing to 100% “zero-emissions” by the 2035 model year. Here's a table from CARB showing the percentages of vehicles sold by model year that claim to be “zero emissions”:
Electric vehicles aren't the only things that qualify as “zero emissions” (e.g. hydrogen vehicles), but electric vehicles are the only things that qualify and also exist in significant numbers. The 2026 model year begins around September 2025 – around 16 months from now. What is the current percentage of vehicles sold in New York that are “zero emissions”? A March 6, 2024 New York Times article puts the share of electric vehicles sold in the New York “metropolitan area” at less than 10% in 2023. The article does not give a figure for New York State as a whole, but there is no doubt that the figure for the state – including rural upstate areas – is significantly lower than the percentage in the city and suburbs. Meanwhile, many sources report that electric vehicle sales suddenly fell sharply in the first quarter of 2024. (I can't find any state-by-state statistics on this.) But even if electric vehicle sales in New York State continue to grow in the first few months of this year, will they really somehow reach 35% of all sales in just over a year? And then to 43% after just one more year, then to 51% after another year, and so on to 100% by 2035? This is completely ridiculous.
Equally ridiculous is the CLCPA’s requirement that 70% of electricity generation come from “renewable energy” by 2030. The people responsible for implementing this requirement are completely incompetent and have no idea what they are doing. After the law was passed in 2019, the first major step in 2020 and 2021 was to close the two zero-emission nuclear reactors at Indian Point, which provided about 25% of New York City's electricity, and replace them with two brand new natural reactors Gas plants, which significantly increases emissions. So far, progress towards the so-called 70 x 30 goal has been negative.
The main initiative to achieve the 70 x 30 goal is a plan for 9,000 MW of offshore wind energy off the coast of Long Island. In this March 5 post, I did the simple math to calculate that if all of the capacity is actually built, it would, at best, cover about 16% of New York's current electricity consumption – before the addition of new loads from electrification City vehicle fleet and home heating. Granted, we have the large hydroelectric plant at Niagara Falls that is considered “renewable,” as well as some other water resources that, along with Niagara Falls, could account for 20% of consumption. With these and offshore wind we can achieve perhaps 35% of consumption. (Meanwhile, offshore wind projects keep being canceled and delayed as developers try to command higher prices.)
How do we achieve 70% renewable energy use in less than six years? They literally have no idea. Pursuant to the CLCPA, a so-called “scoping plan” has been prepared. It envisions a need for something they call the Dispatchable Emissions Free Resource. This is something that does not currently exist and is unlikely to exist in any relevant time period.
But the lack of a viable replacement hasn't stopped New York from promising to close its well-performing natural gas power plants. Several of them were scheduled to close this year. But then in November someone noticed that there was no replacement for the plants, and so the forced shutdown of four of these plants was postponed for two years. Newsflash: In two years we still won't have anything to replace these systems. The same will be the case in four, six, eight and ten years. Will they simply continue to delay the ordered closure? Maybe this way we can avoid hitting the green energy wall.
And then we have Local Law 97, which supposedly requires all large (25,000 square feet and above) residential buildings to convert to electric heat, mostly by 2030. This will mean an increase in grid demand of about 30%. . At the same time, the closure of natural gas power plants is mandated, which will only be partially replaced by highly intermittent offshore wind turbines that cannot fully replace gas generation, let alone begin to meet increased demand.
There must be something here, and there will be. It is of great advantage if this happens quickly and does not drag on for years.
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