It's here! After a busy, entertaining and dramatic month, the 2024 Copa America final takes place on Sunday night, with defending champions Argentina hosting Colombia in Miami. Which team will come out on top? Will Argentina and Lionel Messi cruise to victory with ease, or can Colombia shock them? (The match odds are in Argentina's favor, according to ESPNBET: they're favored at -165 to Colombia's +125.)
If Colombia is to win, which players will need to make a clear statement? And what will Messi do at Hard Rock Stadium? ESPN's Jeff Carlisle, Lizzy Becherano and Tim Vickery give their predictions and expectations for Sunday's final.
1. Who will win and why will it be Argentina?
Carlisle: I don't think Argentina will win on Sunday! Of course, Colombia were pushed to their physical limits against Uruguay, but coach Nestor Lorenzo also made the most of his substitutions in the game. James Rodríguez had to be substituted after 62 minutes. Richard Ríos was stretchered off after 61 minutes, but was seen dancing afterwards, proving that a win does wonders for a player's recovery.
Yes, Argentina are impressive, but as the saying goes, steel sharpens steel, and Colombia will gain a lot of confidence from beating Uruguay. Argentina still doesn't seem to need to get out of third gear, despite Ecuador pulling off a scare. I think Colombia will win by a narrow margin this time.
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Becherano: I actually think Colombia will be the first to beat Argentina in this tournament. The Albiceleste came through the group stage without any problems and were only really tested in the quarter-finals against Ecuador. Lionel Scaloni's team looked uncomfortable in the face of an aggressive opponent and struggled to repel an eager attack.
Argentina has a very capable squad, but they have yet to produce a signature performance at the 2024 Copa America. Colombia, on the other hand, has seen all of their players rise above their weight and stun the toughest opponents at various points in the tournament. Rodriguez can draw on his form from the 2014 World Cup, while Luis Díaz continues to excel on the left flank. Should Lorenzo's side capitalize on their momentum, Argentina will find it difficult to overcome Colombia's physicality and power.
Vickery: From a Colombian perspective, the concern is how hard they had to work through the long semi-final with ten men, which applies to Diaz more than anyone else. It's obviously a big question as they head to Miami with one less day of rest, but if they can recharge their batteries then I think Colombia are capable of doing so. The discipline of the central midfield trio will help put Argentina under pressure and the physicality of the forwards will cause problems, as will their strength at set pieces.
Messi and Argentina are defending Copa America champions after beating Brazil in 2021. Will they win again on Sunday? MB Media/Getty Images
Argentina's defense has collapsed time and again in knockout matches — it could have cost them dearly against France, Holland and Australia in Qatar and here against Ecuador — and even Canada had two golden chances in the last five minutes. One day Argentina will pay dearly for that, and that day could be Sunday.
2. What version of Messi will we see and what do you expect from him?
Carlisle: Messi's normally razor-sharp finishing was absent from this tournament, and his goal against Canada was one of the best two-foot putts. But the scary thing about this goal for Colombia is that it could boost Messi's confidence a little bit and improve his shooting accuracy.
The other reason is that Messi has good scoring opportunities. Yes, I realize that's the old saying about only worrying when he doesn't get chances, but you have to assume that if this trend continues, those shots will eventually find their target. I expect that will happen. Then it's up to Colombia goalkeeper Camilo Vargas to do everything he can to thwart a legend.
Becherano: Messi's quality will be clearly visible on Sunday too, thanks to his unique understanding of the game, spatial awareness and ability to outwit defenders. Despite his age and injuries, Messi has learned to adapt his style of play to the current situation. The Argentine striker is capable of much more than we have seen in this tournament, but Colombia can expect him to rise to the challenge.
Argentina's ability to use emotion when it comes to motivation is not to be taken lightly and Messi is no exception. With criticism of his recent performances and thoughts on his last Copa America game, the No. 10 will be out in force. He may not outrun his defenders, but he only needs a minute to inspire the creation and set-up of a potentially fatal goal.
Messi hasn't been at his best this Copa America, but he didn't need to be. Colombia will likely pursue him aggressively and try to unsettle him. Al Bello/Getty Images
Vickery: We are seeing the sunset of the god. What he does can still be brilliant, but he does it less than he did in Qatar. Some were shocked that Scaloni did not have top scorer Lautaro Martínez in the team for the semi-final, but that is easily explained and serves as an acknowledgement from the coach that Messi is not far from the end at this level.
Someone has to do the hard running. Julián Álvarez can do that and is also an extra player in midfield when Argentina doesn't have the ball. That's very hard on Lautaro, but it's a result of Messi slowly losing the battle against time. It will be interesting to see how Argentina try to get him involved against the organized and physically strong Colombians.
3. Which Colombian player has to play well to beat Argentina?
Carlisle: James Rodriguez is the clear candidate, especially given how dangerous he is from set pieces. However, that won't be enough to stop Argentina from playing. They need to make sure they don't allow set pieces in dangerous situations.
The defence will also be crucial, with centre-back duo Carlos Cuesta and Davinson Sánchez having to do their best to stop Messi and Julian Alvarez if Colombia are to emerge victorious.
Becherano: Of course, all eyes will be on Rodriguez and Lionel Scaloni should plan accordingly, but the biggest challenge on Sunday will be Camilo Vargas. If he can concede his goal while Argentina have the ball, Rodriguez, Luis Diaz and Jhon Córdoba can play with confidence without the burden of having to score a last-minute, desperate equaliser.
Goalkeeper Vargas (left) and playmaker Rodriguez (right) will have to be at their best if Colombia are to pull off an upset on Sunday. Buda Mendes/Getty Images
Vickery: Obviously Rodriguez, because of the way he serves as a rearguard for Diaz and, perhaps most importantly, the excellent execution of his set pieces.
4. OK, time for predictions! Tell us the final score and how the game will end!
Carlisle: I'm predicting a 2-0 win for Colombia, similar to the game against Uruguay (minus the red card). A set piece from Rodriguez puts the Cafeteros in the lead, Cordoba seals the deal.
Becherano: I hate to repeat myself, but Colombia is 2-1. There's no way Argentina can't find the net after their run at the Copa America, but Colombia will be overwhelming.
Vickery: Always make your predictions after the fact! But if I have to, I'll predict a 2-1 win for Colombia, possibly with a late comeback. One header from a set piece, one a counterattack from Diaz.
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