From the climateREALISM
Guest article by Kenneth Schrupp
Editor's Note: California has long been the poster child for bad energy policy. Its policy and regulatory responses to climate change have helped make energy prices there higher than in any other state outside of Hawaii, and blackouts and brownouts have become commonplace in California every summer. As the state encourages people to purchase electric vehicles (EV) and devices, and even mandates such purchases in the near future, it has regularly been forced to ask EV owners not to charge their vehicles at certain times in order to keep the lights on . The guest post below shows that Heartland is not the only organization recognizing the unsustainable power situation in California.
In a recent study, the Heartland Institute detailed the problems utilities face, some of their own creation, as they pursue net-zero emissions. California is a harbinger of things to come if utilities continue to prioritize combating climate change over providing dispatchable, reliable and affordable electricity. California utilities don't have that choice because their power decisions are driven by progressive state legislation and regulators. However, the rest of the nation doesn't have to be California.
(The Center Square) – An international regulator has warned that California's energy grid is at risk of energy shortages in 2029, noting that increasing electrification of buildings and transportation is leading to a surge in energy demand as reliable basic power supplies are replaced by natural gas less reliable solar energy.
“Demand growth and planned generator retirements mean energy adequacy risks will reemerge in the coming years,” the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, a federally designated international electric grid regulator, wrote in its latest grid reliability report. “With a resource portfolio that includes a significant proportion of solar energy [panels]The risk of a supply shortage is associated with summer evenings when demand is high and solar output declines.”
The NERC report found that although the electric grid that covers most of California as well as parts of Nevada and Baja Mexico has new energy from solar and batteries, the elimination of natural gas electricity, which operates at any time of day and regardless of the weather could lead to deficits.
“The analysis assumes projected demand growth of 3.5 GW, significant resource increases (4.6 GW of solar PV, 7.6 GW of batteries, and 0.8 GW of natural gas-fired generation from newly operated coal-fired power plants in Utah), and the retirement of over 3 GW from GW of gas-fired power generation,” NERC continued. “As demand increases and the resource mix becomes more variable, supply shortages may arise.”
According to the report, after 2034 the territory will not have enough reserve capacity above the reference margin – the amount of excess electricity generation above peak demand to ensure reliable operations – unless new planned resources are added. It also says the region will need to import more energy from elsewhere in 2029 if new resources don't come online in a timely manner, which could be a problem if other regions also have growing problems switching to intermittent energy.
“Peak for total internal demand is expected to increase from approximately 56.4 GW in 2024 to 69.1 GW in 2034, representing load growth of 22.5% over the forecast horizon,” NERC wrote. “Transportation and building electrification are the main drivers of demand growth.”
According to the report, California is most likely to experience grid problems between 5:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. each September, when the sun isn't providing as much energy but demand is still high.
According to a Berkeley study, California needs to spend $20 billion to modernize its transmission system to power electric vehicles. By 2026, most new residential parking lots will be required to have electric vehicle chargers, and by 2035, all new vehicles in the state will be required to be zero-emission.
Starting in 2035, all new vehicles in the state must be zero-emission. From 2026, most new residential car parks will be required to have electric vehicle chargers.
A major round of grid upgrades will come from a $15 billion loan from the Department of Energy to Pacific Gas and Electric — which serves 19 million Californians, or about half the state's population — for transmission, battery storage and hydropower upgrades. According to the California Public Utilities Commission, which oversees the state's utilities, PGE increased energy prices by 127% between January 2014 and 2024.
With PGE prices now at 40 cents per kilowatt-hour, they will soon break even at 50 cents per kilowatt-hour when it costs more to drive a Tesla Model 3 on electrons than to drive a Toyota Camry on gasoline. Originally posted at Center Square, republished with permission.
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