Roger Caiazza
The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) recently released the strength trends 2025. This is the annual description of the factors that influence the power of New York's power grids and the state of New York's wholesale markets. It indicates that there are impending problems with the strenuous net zero transition plans in New York, which have to resemble the transition plans in all other jurisdiction.
overview
In 2019, the legislation of the Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) set a “Netto -Null” goal (85% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and 15% compensation from emissions) by 2050. Since then, the state has tried to implement the recommendations for the scoping plan through regulations, procedures and laws. A law is the Law of the Public Service Act Section 66-P of the establishment of a program for renewable energies, according to which the Commission for Public Services has to set up a program to achieve the intermediate objectives for 70% of the energy supplied in 2030, “generate” by renewable energy systems “and that” the nationwide electrical demand system has no emissions up to the year “.
The target group of the Power Trends Resources contains documentation and links to the Power Trends 2025 report itself and a current trends. A press release offers a third summary of the report. This article describes the snack bars funded by Nyiso in these documents.
Reliability
The fact sheet, the Power Trends Report and the press release underline the concern about the falling reliability margins. The press release explains:
Generator deactivation exceed new supply additives. Electrification programs and new large customers associated with economic development initiatives increase the forecast demand higher. Together, these forces also narrow the reliability margins throughout New York and increase the risk of future reliability needs.
The most recent power trend reports included the problem of falling reliability. The following figure shows the status of last year compared to this year. The decline in the margin is mainly due to the fact that fossil units retire faster than zero emissions replacement for the management.
Source: Power Trends 2025
Fossil plants
All three NYISO documents find that the average age of the fossil fleet increases. They also indicate the advantages of modernizing the old fossil facilities. The press release explains: “Dispatching Age power plants can reduce emissions, cover the increasing demand from consumers and the network that is required to integrate additional clean energy resources to reliability.” The declining edge and the age of the fossil plants reflect a lack of foresight by New York agencies that have put existing power plants under pressure to reduce or close emissions.
The strength trends state that: “The emissions of an aging can reduce emissions, cover the increasing demand from consumers and offer the network to reliability advantages that are necessary to integrate additional clean energy resources.” The New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) has rejected several creative applications due to the climate law to replace existing old generators with modern new facilities. Unfortunately there is no direct connection between the proposed facilities and a certain reliability problem, so that DEC rejected the applications. This is an example of poor New York energy planning, since the approval decisions have not been taken into account in isolation in connection with the needs of the electrical system. I welcome the fact that this is a recommendation of strength trends, but it is also fair to ask why the Nyiso did not intervene in the creative applications.
New load growth
Future reliability margins will also be influenced by the new load growth. The fact sheet and the report find that “new high-tech, AI and data center projects have an impact on future electrical demand and load growth”. Figure 1 from the report states that 2,567 MW of new stress capacity is required by 2035, and the document notes that other projects could then add around 1,900 MW capacity. I am disappointed that the Nyiso report has not mentioned that these new load centers require constant energy and clean performance that is free of electrical noises, increase, tension and drops. These needs tighten the challenge of section 66-P “Establishment of a program for renewable energies”.
Source: Power Trends 2025
Winter layer
The three NYISO documents all note that the top loads should move from summer to winter. The press release notes that:
New York is expected to become a winter powerful electrical system in the 2040s, which is mainly driven by the electrification of space heating and transport. On the coldest days, the availability of natural gas for electricity generation can be limited, and the interruptions of the natural gas supply will present further challenges for reliable electrical actors.
There is another not mentioned complication with winter peaks. If the electrical system of the public service law is available in section 66-P “Establishment of a program for renewable energies”, which is dependent on wind and solar generation resources, winter solar availability is much lower than in summer. This is another challenge that I think that the report of the power trends should have recognized.
Competitive market
The fact sheet, performance trends and the press release reimburse the performance of the competitive markets to support the transition and at the same time maintain reliability and to minimize consumer costs. NYISO is a product of the DE-regulated competitive market. The report explains: “We strive to administer and monitor the competitive market markets as the most cost -effective way to attract and keep new resources to meet our reliability requirements while we go to a decarbonized network.” I do not share your optimistic prospects for the ability of the market to attract and keep new resources. At this point it is not clear what kind of resources and how much of these resources is required. The assumption that you can develop a market to attract these resources is questionable.
Connection procedure
The three NYISO documents all find that there are problems with connection disorders. The press release states: “New supply, load and transmission projects try to connect to the network in data sets. The connection processes of NYISO continue to develop in order to compensate for the flexibility of the developer with the need to manage the process with stricter time frames.”
This is a problem that is located directly in the NYISO area of ​​responsibility, and it is a problem. Power Trends describes proposed changes to the process, but do not indicate that there are fundamental problems. Many of the new projects are inverter -based resources, and the integration of this new resource category is problematic for the stability and reliability of the networks. Regulatory framework conditions are in development to tackle this problem, and this has contributed to delays in the connection. I don't understand why Nyiso didn't mention this problem.
discussion
The latest edition of Power Trends warns of important topics with which the New York Electric System confronts itself. Although I think that Nyiso has become more than earlier reports about the severity and the consequences of the problems in this issue, I am still disappointed with the report for several reasons. First, it is still necessary to read between the lines in all your reports to understand that you know that there are enormous challenges with the transition to an electrical system for renewable energies. I think this is a bad service for the residents of New York. A really independent agency should expressly describe the reliability and affordability difficulties for the electrical system without holding back.
I am also disappointed that the Power Trends document did not describe any specific problems in connection with the climate act that I mentioned in the above description. In my opinion, the biggest challenge for the reliability for every electrical system that depends on the weather -dependent resources is the need for a new category of electrical system support technology that can be reliably sent to provide both energy and capacity over a long time without emissions. NYISO calls this resource the sendable emission -free resource (DEFR) and notes that it “decisively for the fulfillment of the energy requirements for intermittent renewable sources such as solar and wind are not available”. Defr was only mentioned in passing. The consequences of the challenges we do not know what DEFR will work and we do not know how much DefR is needed have not been discussed.
Finally, I wish Nyiso in New York energy policy matters more assertive. In view of the tyrant of the previous administrations, it is understandable that the state of New York has to hear from the experts. For example, Power Trends finds that we have to use existing fossil power plants, but Nyiso has not campaigned directly to reject applications.
Diploma
The Power Trends 2025 report offers an excellent overview of the New York state grid and wholesale market markets. There are suggestions that the state's mandate to go to zero emissions gets into trouble. Unfortunately, NYISO does not consolidate all warning signs for the implementation of the Climate Act, and it is also not called state guidelines that have problems.
Ultimately, the problem is that New York does not have a comprehensive energy plan. The Climate Act scoping plan is just a list of technologies that describe an electrical system that has no emissions. However, there is no feasibility study that shows how it will work, and the university administration has brought the differences between the scoping plan and the NYISO resource prospects. As it looks now, the administrative plan is to create as many wind and sun facilities as possible and to hope that someone is working out how to integrate it into the electrical system. If that doesn't work, I predict that the Nyiso is accused.
Roger Caiazza blogs with pragmatic environmentalists from New York about New York energy and environmental issues. The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect the position of one of his former employers or another organization with which he was associated with.
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