After an agonizingly long wait (which seemed even longer if you were an SEC bubble team), it’s finally mid-March and that means the NCAA Basketball Tournament is here. Led by No. 1 seeds Duke, Arizona, Michigan and Florida – as well as a cohort of the usual bluebloods, some new faces and a few potential Cinderella teams – there are plenty of ways for bettors to get in on the action.
It’s no surprise that several of the top seeds are the favorites to win the national title, with Duke the top contender at +330, while Michigan (+350), Arizona (+425), Florida (+700), Houston (+1000) and UConn (+1700) round out the betting favorites to win the overall.
Our college basketball betting analysts, researchers and editors reveal their favorite early bets since the bracket crashed, from first-round picks to some title game futures.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Odds were correct at time of publication and are subject to change.
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Kevin Pulsifer (researcher): North Carolina is not the same team that beat Duke earlier this season. Caleb Wilson’s injury has limited the Tar Heels’ ceiling, and now they face a VCU team that gets to the free throw line with a top-20 rate in the country, which could negate one of North Carolina’s defensive strengths if the referees call a close call (which often happens in the NCAA Tournament). UNC won a game on the road in the Dean Dome without Wilson against a hapless Syracuse team. Meanwhile, the Rams were tested in the non-conference schedule by taking NC State to the finish in Raleigh and defeating Virginia Tech by 18 points on a neutral site. VCU will have no fear here.
Mark Zinno (analyst): The committee loves to take advantage of the strengths of lower seeded teams and balance them with the weaknesses of higher seeded teams. That’s what you have here when High Point faces the Badgers. The Panthers are averaging over 90 points per game and Wisconsin’s defense leaves a lot to be desired. Wisconsin is a mediocre team in effective field goal shooting defense and 3-point shooting defense. High Point will cause all sorts of problems for the Badgers.
The Panthers have the longest winning streak in the country at 14 games. They play very quickly and their ball movement allows them to get inside and make easy shots. They also have an excellent perimeter defense that gives opponents a 31.9% shooting rate from three-pointers, and the Badgers rely heavily on three-pointers. High Point forces the fifth-most turnovers in the country and could frustrate Wisconsin’s shooters. If there’s a prototypical 5-12 surprise this year, this is it.
Keith Lipscomb (Editor): I like this matchup for Miami, even though the game will be played in St. Louis, just a two-hour drive from the Missouri campus. This is much less important in the tournament. The Hurricanes were strong on both ends of the court, especially on the glass, where I think Ernest Udeh Jr. and Malik Reneau will be too much for the Tigers. Miami has done well this season – a 10-5 road/neutral record, with losses coming to Florida, BYU, Virginia (twice) and Clemson. And Missouri has had problems on the road (5-9), including a 91-48 loss to Illinois in the building where this game will be played. I expect Canes coach Jai Lucas will have a plan to slow down the red-hot Mark Mitchell and challenge other Tigers to do damage.
Mackenzie Kraemer (researcher): One of my favorite trends in the NCAA Tournament lately has been going down with high totals, and there isn’t a higher total than Saint Louis-Georgia’s 171.5. In the last six tournaments, the number of unders in the first round is 30-12 when the total is at least 150. Both teams want to score and play fast, but over the last 10 games the Billikens have seen the second-largest decline in adjusted offensive efficiency. Over the same period, Georgia experienced the second largest decline in adjusted pace. Last year there were at least 172 points in only three NCAA games, so I’ll hold my nose and click on the following.
(2) UConn makes Elite Eight (+170)
Editor’s Tips
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Zinno: The huskies are littered in my opinion. However, the selection committee gave them a good performance with a very positive draw. While the Furman Paladins are a troublesome team, they are a poor opponent against UConn’s defense, which has the size to not give up on the interior defender and the rebounding to not allow second chances for points.
In their second matchup, the Huskies may not even see No. 7 UCLA and instead get No. 10 UCF, as Mick Cronin’s Bruins have struggled on the East Coast in the Big Ten. UCF was mistreated by similar teams in Arizona, Houston and Iowa State; and UConn profiles like these squads.
If it’s No. 3 Michigan State in the Sweet 16, to me that’s a coin toss game where the Huskies’ perimeter defense shuts down the Spartans. I can imagine all the higher seeds in the bottom half of the East round losing their first round match, giving the Huskies an easier path. UConn has one of the better draws in the tournament and should win three straight here.
(3) Virginia makes it to the Elite Eight (+310)
Pulsifer: The Cavaliers just took Duke all the way, holding Cameron Boozer to 3 of 17 shooting in the ACC title game thanks to incredible post defense from Ugonna Onyenso and a nine-man rotation that features the bench as strong as the starters. Virginia is balanced inside and out, both offensively and defensively, and they have a favorable draw. In the second round, expect a struggling Tennessee team (or a losing SMU team that the Cavaliers have already beaten, or a Miami). [Ohio] team that is weak in the forecast metrics), then a possible Sweet 16 matchup against Iowa State, which actually suits UVA. Because of the massive home-field advantage in the regular season, the Cyclones tend to perform worse in March, and they struggle a lot at the free throw line. Iowa State also encourages teams to shoot three-pointers, which Virginia loves to do.
(7) Miami makes Sweet 16 (+400)
Lip comb: Why not build on the Canes’ first-round pick and roll (yes, intentional) to get through the first weekend? To do that, they have to take care of No. 2 seed Purdue, which is coming off a grueling Big Ten championship game. This is about value for me as I don’t think Miami is taken seriously enough. (It has the 25th shortest odds to win two games.) My biggest concern heading into the Purdue matchup is the Boilermakers’ perimeter ability (38%, top 20 in the nation). However, I think Miami can get what it wants on offense and give Purdue everything it can and more in what I expect will be a physical battle. This feels like a Tru Washington X Factor game outside the Miami bench.
(2) Purdue to the Final Four (+360)
Chandler: Purdue entered the season as the favorite to win the national championship, and after winning the Big Ten Championship, the Boilermakers still have the second-best odds of any two-seeded team to reach the Final Four. Although they rank just 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency — usually a warning sign for winning national championships — that shouldn’t stop them from being a strong contender in the West Region. Purdue has the best offense in the country. More importantly, it has a very smooth draw. Third-seeded Gonzaga and sixth-seeded BYU are without key players Braden Huff and Richie Saunders. Top-seeded Arizona has underperformed in the NCAA Tournament under Tommy Lloyd, and a Sweet 16 matchup against Wisconsin or Arkansas Razorbacks could eliminate the Wildcats. Purdue’s Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn are three of the most experienced players in this tournament, and they have enough skill and experience to reach the Final Four.
