Researchers are using supercomputers to develop new software for improved space weather forecasting
TEXAS UNIVERSITY IN AUSTIN, TEXAS ADVANCED COMPUTING CENTER
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PICTURE: (UPPER PANEL, LEFT TO RIGHT) JULY 12, 2012 CORONAL BULK ELEVATION SEEN IN STEREO B COR2, SOHO C2 AND STEREO A COR2 CORONAGRAPHS. (LOWER PANEL) THE SAME PICTURES… View More CREDIT: TALWINDER SINGH, MEHMET S. YALIM, NIKOLAI V. POGORELOV AND NAT GOPALSWAMY
The sun’s surface swirls with energy and often hurls masses of highly magnetized plasma towards the earth. Sometimes these ejections are strong enough to crash through the magnetosphere – the natural magnetic shield that protects the earth – and damage satellites or power grids. Such space weather events can be catastrophic.
Astronomers have studied the sun’s activity with increasing understanding for centuries. Today computers are central to understanding the behavior of the sun and its role in space weather events.
The bipartisan PROSWIFT Act (Promoting Research and Observations of Space Weather to Improve the Forecasting of Tomorrow) [https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-116s881enr/pdf/BILLS-116s881enr.pdf], which went into effect in October 2020, formalizes the need to develop better space weather forecasting tools.
“Space weather requires a real-time product so that we can predict effects before an event, not after,” said Nikolai Pogorelov, a distinguished professor of space science at the University of Alabama at Huntsville who used computers to predict space weather for decades. “This issue – related to national space programs, environmental and other issues – has recently been escalated to a higher level.”
To many, space weather may seem like a distant concern, but like a pandemic – something we knew was possible and catastrophic – we may not realize its dangers until it’s too late.
“We don’t think about it, but electrical communications, GPS and everyday devices can be affected by extreme space weather effects,” Pogorelov said.
The US is also planning missions to other planets and the moon. All of this requires very accurate predictions of space weather – for spacecraft design and to alert astronauts to extreme events.
With funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF) and NASA, Pogorelov leads a team working to improve the state of the art in space weather forecasting.
“This research, which brings together complex science, advanced computing and exciting observations, will improve our understanding of how the sun affects space weather and its effects on Earth,” said Mangala Sharma, space weather program director in the Atmospheric and Geo Department – and space science at NSF. “The work will help scientists predict space weather events and strengthen our nation’s resilience to these potential natural hazards.”
The multi-agency effort includes the Goddard and Marshall Space Flight Centers, the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and two privately held companies, Predictive Science Inc. and Space Systems Research Corporation.
Pogorelov uses the Frontera supercomputer at the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC) – the world’s ninth fastest – and high-performance systems from NASA and the San Diego Supercomputing Center to improve the models and methods that are at the heart of space weather forecasting.
Turbulence plays a key role in the dynamics of solar wind and coronal mass ejections. This complex phenomenon has many facets, including the role of the impact-turbulence interaction and ion acceleration.
“Solar plasma is not in thermal equilibrium. This creates interesting functions, ”said Pogorelov.
Writing in the Astrophysical Journal [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/abe62c/meta] In April 2021, Pogorelov, together with Michael Gedalin (Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Israel) and Vadim Roytershteyn (Space Science Institute), described the role of backflowing pickup ions in the acceleration of charged particles in the universe. Back-flowing ions, either of interstellar or local origin, are absorbed by the magnetized solar wind plasma and move radially outward from the sun.
“Some non-thermal particles can be accelerated further to create solar-energy particles that are particularly important for space weather conditions on Earth and for people in space,” he said.
Pogorelov ran simulations on Frontera to better understand this phenomenon and compare it to observations from Voyager 1 and 2, the space probes that explored the outer reaches of the heliosphere and are now providing unique data from the local interstellar medium.
One of the main focuses of space weather forecasting is correctly predicting the arrival of coronal mass ejections – the release of plasma and the accompanying magnetic field from the solar corona – and determining the direction of the magnetic field it carries with it. Pogorelov’s team’s study of backstreaming ions helps, as does the work published in the Astrophysical Journal in 2020, which uses a river-rope magnetohydrodynamic model to predict the time of arrival on Earth and the magnetic field configuration of the coronal mass ejection dated July 12, 2012 . (Magnetohydrodynamics refers to the magnetic properties and behavior of electrically conductive fluids such as plasma, which play a key role in the dynamics of space weather).
“Fifteen years ago we didn’t know much about the interstellar medium or the properties of the solar wind,” said Pogorelov. “We have so many observations available today that allow us to validate our codes and make them much more reliable.”
Pogorelov is co-investigating an on-board component of the Parker Solar Probe called SWEAP (Solar Wind Electrons, Protons, and Alphas Instrument). [http://sweap.cfa.harvard.edu/]. With each orbit, the probe approaches the sun and provides new information about the properties of the solar wind.
“Soon it will advance beyond the critical sphere where the solar wind becomes superfast magnetosonic, and we will have information about the physics of acceleration and transport of solar wind that we have never had before,” he said.
As the probe and other new observation tools become available, Pogorelov expects a wealth of new data that can support and advance the development of new models relevant to space weather forecasting. For this reason, in addition to his basic research, Pogorelov is developing a software framework that is flexible, can be used by various research groups around the world and can integrate new observational data.
“There is no doubt that the quality of the photosphere and solar corona data will improve dramatically in the years to come, both because of new data available and new, more sophisticated ways to work with data,” he said. “We try to build software in such a way that it is easier for users to integrate this information when they find better conditions from new scientific missions.”
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References:
Singh, T., Kim, TK, Pogorelov, NV, & Arge, CN (2020). Application of a modified Spheromak model to simulations of coronal mass ejection in the inner heliosphere. Space weather, 18, e2019SW002405. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019SW002405
Singh, T., Yalim, MS, Pogorelov, NV, and Gopalswamy, N., A Modified Spheromak Model Suitable for Coronal Mass Ejection Simulations, The Astrophysical Journal, vol. 894, No. 1, 2020. doi: 10.3847 / 1538-4357 / ab845f.
From EurekAlert!
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