Paul Dorian
By early Tuesday, January 21, much of the country will be in a deep freeze, with much of the northern U.S. likely below zero. Temperatures could dip into the single digits Tuesday morning in major cities along the I-95 corridor. Map courtesy of NOAA, Weathermodels.com (Dr. Ryan Maue, X)
overview
A Siberian-related Arctic invasion will begin early this weekend as bitterly cold air from Canada moves south through the central states. By Sunday, the Arctic air mass will spread eastward toward the Atlantic coast and by the time we get to Monday, Inauguration Day, most of the country will be under frost, including the Washington DC metro, where the outdoor swearing-in ceremony took place -Activities planned include ceremonies. Temperatures will fall well below normal across much of the country for most of next week, which is actually quite impressive considering this is precisely the time of year with the lowest “normal” temperatures.
The Arctic front on the leading edge of the cold air outbreak will reach the eastern states on Sunday and a wave of low pressure is likely to form along its border zone. This Arctic wave could result in some snowfall across the Mid-Atlantic region later Sunday into Sunday night. Another storm system could develop far down in the Gulf region by the middle of next week, potentially bringing snow and ice to parts of the southern and eastern United States. Looking ahead, there is even a possibility that a third system could form in the southern states by the end of next week.
Some of the air reaching the Mid-Atlantic region early next week will originate on the other side of the North Pole over Siberia. In fact, “reverse trajectory” models trace the origin of the air parcels reaching the Mid-Atlantic region by Tuesday, January 21st to a landmass known for its brutally cold air this time of year. Property courtesy of NOAA
The explosion in the Arctic comes early this weekend
The colder-than-average weather pattern that began across the central and eastern U.S. earlier this month not only appears to be continuing through the third week of January, but will also become more extreme. The upper pattern across North America has evolved into one that may create a “cross-polar” flow, allowing Siberian air to cross the North Pole and fall into Canada and the United States in the coming days. The arctic air outbreak will begin over the central states early this weekend and the bitterly cold air mass will move south into the heart of Texas by late Saturday. On Sunday, the Arctic front at the leading edge of the Arctic air mass will slide into the eastern states and is expected to slow in the southeastern states. The energy rotates through an upper trough and this opens the door for the formation of an Arctic low pressure wave along the frontal boundary zone. This low pressure system would move northeastward into increasingly colder air, producing snow accumulations or rain turning into snow accumulations – possibly on the order of a few inches – in the Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday into Sunday night.
An Arctic frontal boundary zone will slide into the eastern states on Sunday and energy (circled region) pushing through an upper trough area may help produce an Arctic low pressure wave. This system may then move northeast into an increasingly cold air mass later Sunday. As a result, there is a chance of snow accumulation in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and the northeastern United States later Sunday into Sunday night. Map courtesy of the Canadian Met Centre, Tropicaltidbits.com
Weather on Inauguration Day (Monday).
By Monday, January 20, bitterly cold air will be firmly established across much of the country, including the DC metro area, where outdoor activities are planned for Inauguration Day ceremonies. Temperatures aren't expected to be far from 20 degrees in the D.C. area by midday Monday, and there will be a biting wind, making it feel even colder than actual air temperatures. Temperatures could fall into the single digits and below zero in much of the northern US on Monday night along the corridor from Washington DC to Philly and NYC.
On January 20, 1985, it was so cold that all outdoor activities for Ronald Reagan's second swearing-in ceremony were canceled. At midday of the swearing-in ceremony on January 20 in Washington, D.C., temperatures were in the single digits during an extremely cold air outbreak in the Arctic. Map courtesy of NOAA
The final Inauguration Day, which was heavily influenced by weather, occurred in January 1985 for Ronald Reagan's second term. It was so cold in Washington, DC that day and there was an arctic eruption in the eastern states that all outdoor activities were canceled. On January 20th, the outdoor temperature was only 2.5°C at midday and wind chills in the -3 to -10°C range occurred in the afternoon. This particular cold snap in January 1985 happened to follow a major stratospheric warming that began in December 1984.
On the eve of JFK's inauguration in 1961, twenty inches of snow fell on Washington, D.C., causing the worst traffic jam the District had ever experienced up to that point, with hundreds of cars stranded on local streets. By sunrise on the 20th the snow had stopped and the sky was clearing, but the day remained bitterly cold. An army of men worked all night to clear Pennsylvania Avenue, and despite the cold, a large crowd gathered for the swearing-in ceremony and inaugural parade. At midday the temperature was only 22°F and the wind was blowing from the northwest at 30 km/h, so it felt like 7°F above zero. (For some excellent information on “Inauguration Day Weather,” check out this NWS website.)
With cold air soon set to push back into the Deep South, the chance of more than an inch of snow by the end of next week is “non-zero” all the way to the Gulf Coast. Map courtesy of ECMWF, Weather Bell Analytics
Danger of storms in the middle and end of the week
Tuesday will remain brutally cold across much of the country (temperatures below freezing all the way down to the Gulf Coast) and a new wave of energy will be heading toward the south-central states. With expectations of an active southern branch of the jet stream, low pressure could actually form over the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week and then move northeast toward the East Coast. With cold air firmly anchored as far as the Gulf Coast, this system could produce significant snow accumulations and paralyzing ice as far south as the Deep South and possibly farther north and east as it pushes toward the East Coast. Looking forward, there could be another wave of energy heading toward the south-central states late next week, and this too may help kick-start a storm system near the Gulf Coast by late next week.
Good news: Only 25 days until spring training begins.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube
Like this:
Load…
Related
Explore more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to receive the latest posts by email.
