The probability of a considerable, striking earth is small, but they are never zero. Large asteroids have hit earth in the past, which led to regional devastation. A really big asteroid strike was probably contributing to extinction of the dinosaurs. So we should not surprise ourselves that astronomers have discovered an asteroid with a better than 1% chance of meeting our world. These chances are big enough that we should keep an eye on them, but not big enough that we should start packing bags and fleeing the hills.
The rock, which is 2024 years old, is somewhere between 40 and 100 meters width, which would make it a “city killer” seasantoid. If the earth hits it, human civilization would not decimate and cause mass extinction, but it could destroy a strongly populated area if it hit a city or trigger a tsunami when it hit the ocean. It would support a punch that resembles the Tunguska event from 1908 in northern Siberia.
So what is the overall risk of 2024 years 4? The scale used most frequently for asteroid -impact risks is called Torino scale. It combines the overall size and the relative speed of an object with its effects of the effects of assigning a number from 0 to 10, although 0 means that there is no risk of effects, and 10 means that it is time to call us all to call us all to save before extinction. The highest number that an asteroid on the scale was 4.. This was for the asteroid apophis shortly after its discovery, which was now downgraded to 0.
Currently 2024 YR4 has a 3 on the scale, which means that it deserves “attention from astronomers”. It is currently the only object with a different number than 0 on the Torino scale, and it means that a few things come into play. The first is that the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) works to capture the asteroid orbit. The chair of NASA coordinates the IAWN with observatories around the world to make detailed observations of 2024 years 4. It will take time to collect enough data. What will probably happen is that you find that there is no collision risk, and 2024 YR4 is downgraded to 0 on the scale.
The second initiated thing is the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), chaired by the European space agency. You have a planned meeting next week if there will be some first discussions about a possible mission by 2024 YR4 to postpone its orbit. If we find that there is a real risk of effects, this group would be quickly improved. But that's not likely.
Statistically speaking, asteroids beat the size of 2024 years every two thousand years or so. For this reason, astronomers pursue these objects and are constantly looking for more. Although the likelihood of an impact is never zero, we should be able to ensure that a real risk can be reduced.
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