MELBOURNE, Australia – Carlos Alcaraz couldn't have said it better when asked to share his thoughts on the upcoming Australian Open quarterfinal clash against Novak Djokovic.
“This is not the right player for a quarter-final,” joked the world number 3.
At any tennis tournament on the planet, this heavyweight bout would be a worthy and highly anticipated finale. But at this year's Australian Open, the two titans will face off in a quarterfinal for the ages.
This is how every player can win the game and move into the semi-finals:
Djokovic won three of his last four duels against Alcaraz. Photo by Fred Lee/Getty Images
Why Novak Djokovic will beat Carlos Alcaraz
Is it too simplistic to say that Djokovic simply knows how to win at Melbourne Park? Perhaps. But he really does!
Djokovic is a ten-time Australian Open champion and has a ridiculous 94-9 record in the tournament over his career. If you take out his first three years on tour, the number becomes even scarier at 91-6. No player has won more games at the Australian Open than Djokovic, and no player has won more games at Rod Laver Arena, where Tuesday's blockbuster clash will take place. Djokovic has an aura around him that his opponent feels every time he steps on this court.
Odds for the Australian Open Women 2025
The direct balance between the two also favors Djokovic in this quarterfinal. After losing to Alcaraz in two of the pair's first three meetings, the Serbian star has managed to flip the script. He won three of the next four matches, including last summer's famous Olympic final on clay at Roland Garros. What matters is that Djokovic prevailed both times when he and Alcaraz met on hard court. These matches took place at the 2023 Cincinnati Masters and the ATP Finals later this year.
After dropping sets in both his first and second round matches of the tournament, Djokovic appears to have found his rhythm again. He won eight sets in a row, showing fierce ball striking and trademark defense en route to the quarterfinals.
“I'm really happy to be able to beat both of them [Tomas] Machac and [Jiri] Lehecka in straight sets, that encourages me to believe that on a good day when I'm feeling good, I can really win against any opponent,” Djokovic said after his fourth-round victory. “I like the way I play and the way I feel the last few games. I'm thrilled [the Alcaraz] Challenge.”
Editor's Tips
2 relatives
The Alcaraz serve, which was redesigned last offseason to make the movements more fluid for greater precision and consistency, also seems a little suspect. He has committed 15 double faults in four games and lands first serves only 62% of the time. This puts him in 69th place for first serve rate at this year's tournament. If Alcaraz continues to struggle with his serve, that will be an advantage for Djokovic, the greatest returner the game has ever seen.
But perhaps the most important reason Djokovic will defeat his younger rival and advance to the final four is the story he is playing for. Another Grand Slam title – a 25th – would break the tie he holds with Margaret Court for most major singles wins of his career. And if he wants to win another major, he would be the oldest man to ever win a Grand Slam trophy.
Alcaraz defeated Djokovic in the Wimbledon finals in both 2023 and 2024. JAMES ROSS/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Why Carlos Alcaraz will beat Novak Djokovic
There is no shortage of factors in Alcaraz's favor heading into this quarter-final. But the most obvious might be its age and freshness.
At 21, Alcaraz is an extraordinary 16 years younger than Djokovic and those fresh, young legs should serve him well in the fight against the king of Melbourne Park. Additionally, Alcaraz spent significantly less time on court in the first four rounds: seven hours and 45 minutes, compared to Djokovic's 11 hours.
Odds for the Australian Open Men 2025
Djokovic may have a stunning record at the Australian Open, but for much of this year's tournament he didn't quite look like the same player he once was. Maybe you could say that you always show your age. Djokovic struggled with breathing problems at various stages and struggled to move around the court with his usual vigor, although there were improvements in his last two games. That almost sounds wrong, as fitness and mental toughness have defined his illustrious career, but the longer the match goes on, the more Djokovic will be at a disadvantage.
Alcaraz has already proven he has what it takes to beat Djokovic on tennis' biggest stages. The ominous thing for Djokovic is that Alcaraz is undoubtedly getting better.
The Spaniard is hitting the ball harder and more aggressively these two weeks in Melbourne than he did twelve months ago. Tournament data shows that he has sacrificed around 4% of forehand topspin in exchange for more speed and now averages 3 km/h (1.9 mph) more on these shots. As a result, he has beaten the most winners in the tournament and has the second highest percentage of winners by points played. If he can master that serve, he will be hard to beat.
“If I compete against Novak, nothing will change for me. “I’m going to approach the match the same way I did in previous matches against him,” Alcaraz said after his fourth-round match against Jack Draper. “I know my weapons. I know I can play good tennis against him and beat him. That’s all I think about when I compete against him.”
Djokovic isn't the only one looking to history with a win on Tuesday. Alcaraz is just three wins away from securing the only Grand Slam title that has eluded him in his young career. If he won the Australian Open, he would be only the ninth man in history to achieve the career slam, but at 21 years, 8 months and 19 days, he would be the youngest to achieve the feat.
Who will win?
It's hard to beat Djokovic at the Australian Open, but we feel like we're firmly moving into the era of Alcaraz – and Jannik Sinner. It will be the match of the tournament and Alcaraz will prevail in five epic sets.
