Bastardi feedback on Hurricane Henri – will you participate?

This post is from an email I received from Joe. It has no changes compared to yesterday’s forecast.

When it comes to snow storm forecasts, there is always a negative mood until it starts to snow. And rightly so. So many predictions have not been proven and until the snow is on the ground it is not confirmed.

Posted by Joe Bastardi

I have received texts and e-mails, and rightly so, many with good arguments, since Henri has not yet done what I expect him to do, why he will not. The mood was the opposite yesterday as we were so far ahead here.

But let me make it clear why this is the storm I have always feared. Much of this has to do with its prediction endgame.

Most of the hurricanes that hit the NE hug land and draw in dry air. Henri obviously doesn’t. Carol and 38 were walking well east of Hatteras and didn’t get that much weaker. 44, Donna, Belle and Gloria hugged the coast more and grew weaker, as did Irene

Henri is in his own world. It’s nowhere near as strong as those storms north, but it’s farther out over the water. and it comes into an area with improved drainage. In 1969, Gerda was shocked by the daylight of meteorologists going from a minimal hurricane to a large one that was colder than the current 12 hours. It went over the Nantucket lightship at 120 miles an hour.

But this storm, this is the storm my father always talked about. Dad graduated in 1965 when he was 35 and I was 10. But even before that, he’d often talked about the idea that there was no reason a storm couldn’t hit New England west of the north. In fact, based on his observations from the big hit years of the 30s, 40s and 50s, he would probably say that it was only a matter of time before

In 1903, a hurricane hit Atlantic City from the southeast. We saw Sandy in 2012 (don’t post me with the Post Tropical label). Virginia Beach arrived from the southeast in 1933; Fran was still moving west from north over Pennsylvania in 1996.

So until tomorrow morning the potential tightening parameter and angle of attack will be a big problem., A minimal hurricane weakening on TS has a 3-5 toot rise. However, the stronger scenario can increase this.

Finally, while Fred didn’t hurricane this season, it went from 1009MB to 993.6MB. Henri was 991MB on the morning scout. but at 6:30 p.m. it had dropped to 989 MB. Indeed, if it falls below 975MB it would be above the Cat 2 we have.

Grace just exploded when she hit the coast. Feedback is a wild thing. You have 2 views on this, you have me, biased to the extreme, always looking for it because I understand the power of nature and as Neil Frank used to say, the ability to make the forecaster look like a fool and be humble vs today when we see people being shocked or blaming climate change. The hurricane model’s 931MB would never be reached, but it told us the parameters are there for deepening. The weather loves to go to extremes, just as it does the opposite way.

Years ago I broached the case of the late Rush Limbaugh when he claimed the National Hurricane Center had exaggerated storms. Part of that was my beef in the years when nearby storms were more underestimated than exaggerated.

My point is that there is no hype at NHC. right or wrong, they are straight shooters. Rather, I’m extremely biased because the weather loves to go to extremes, although it doesn’t do it all the time unless it’s because of climate change or whatever. Will Henri be a role model? All the players are there and so are my concerns. But it wouldn’t be climate change. only nature does what it can

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