Not many people know that
By Paul Homewood
This is not just nonsense, but fraudulent nonsense!
Officials called Hurricane Helene's deadly rains and flooding “biblical” and “generational.” But weather forecasters used a different term: “once in 1,000 years.”
Helene was actually the second storm in a millennium to hit North Carolina in a matter of days. Less than two weeks before Helene made landfall, an unnamed tropical storm brought 1,000-year rainfall to communities on the other side of the state and flooded homes along the coast.
The idea of two such precipitation events occurring back-to-back may seem confusing. After all, it sounds like they should only occur once every 1,000 years. But in reality it's all about probability. It is more important than ever for communities and infrastructure managers to understand the opportunities – and how climate change is changing them.
Researchers were able to clearly identify these two extremely rare floods in North Carolina using rainfall frequency estimates. For example, using years of rainfall measurements for a particular location, scientists extrapolate what constitutes a 100-year storm for that location.
Add in the effects of climate change – which are not accounted for in current estimates – and the likelihood of catastrophic rainfall increases, said Daniel Swain, a climatologist at the University of California, Los Angeles. A hotter atmosphere can retain additional moisture, leading to more frequent and intense downpours.
Take Helene's Rain. While statistical estimates based on historical records suggested it was a 1,000-year event, a quick analysis after the storm showed that heavy rains like Helene's now occur about every 70 years due to global warming.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2024/10/18/what-it-really-means-when-a-1-in-1000-year-rainstorm-hits
So North Carolina had two “once in 1,000 years” rainstorms within two weeks? Really?
I'm sorry, but this has to be considered a complete scam.
Let's start with Helene.
Storm rainfall in the worst-hit part of North Carolina was mostly below 20 inches, although a small handful of high-elevation locations recorded slightly higher levels.
http://web.archive.org/web/20240930152623/https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html
However, these totals steadily accumulated over three days, for example in Asheville:
However, we do know that in 1916, 22 inches fell in just 24 hours in the exact same area, which is still a record for the entire United States.
Obviously the Helene floods were not unprecedented.
And what about this other storm:
This refers to the small rainstorm that dumped 10 inches of rain over a short stretch of coastline around Southport, North Carolina on September 17th. I covered the story here.
http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/
But again, ten inches in a day is pretty normal along the coast of the Carolinas when a tropical storm passes through.
For example, the 24-hour record for South Carolina is 14.8 inches during Hurricane Floyd in 1999:
However, according to Wikipedia, North Carolina was even more affected by Floyd:
North Carolina suffered the brunt of the storm's destruction. In total, Hurricane Floyd caused 51 deaths in North Carolina, many from freshwater flooding, and caused billions of dollars in damage.
The major hurricane's storm surge was 9–10 feet (2.7–3.0 m) in the southeastern part of the state. The hurricane also spawned numerous tornadoes, most of which caused little damage. Damage to power lines left over 500,000 customers without power at some point during the storm.[2]
Just weeks before Floyd struck, Hurricane Dennis brought up to 15 inches (380 mm) of rain to southeastern North Carolina. When Hurricane Floyd moved across the state in early September, it caused heavy rainfall, with a maximum of 19.06 inches (484 mm) in Wilmington. Although it moved quickly, the extreme rainfall was due to Floyd's interaction with an approaching cold front across the region.[2]
Extensive flooding, particularly along NC Hwy 91 and the White Oak Loop neighborhood, caused rivers to overflow; Nearly every river basin in eastern North Carolina reached 500-year or greater flood levels.[33] Most local flooding occurred overnight; Floyd dropped nearly 17 inches (430 mm) of rain in the hours of his passage, and many residents did not notice the flooding until the water entered their homes. The U.S. Navy, National Guard and Coast Guard conducted nearly 1,700 freshwater rescues of people trapped on the roofs of their homes due to the rapid rise in water. In contrast, many of the worst affected areas did not reach peak flooding for several weeks after the storm as water pooled in rivers and flowed downstream (see flood graphic at right).
The passage of Hurricane Irene four weeks later dumped another 150 mm of rain over the still saturated area, causing further flooding.
The Tar River suffered the worst flooding, exceeding the 500-year flood mark in its lower reaches. It peaked 24 feet (7.3 m) above flood stage. Flooding occurred in Rocky Mount, leaving up to 30% underwater for several days. In Tarboro, much of the downtown area was under several feet of water.[34] Nearby, the town of Princeville was largely destroyed when the waters of the Tar River overflowed the town's levee, covering the town with over 20 feet (6.1 m) of flood water for ten days.[35] Further downstream, severe flooding occurred in Greenville. Damage in Pitt County alone was estimated at $1.6 billion (1999 USD, $2.81 billion 2022).[13] Washington, where peak flooding was observed, was also devastated. Some Greenville residents had to swim six feet under water to reach the front doors of their homes and apartments.[36] Due to severe flooding in downtown Greenville, the East Carolina Pirates were forced to move their football game against #9 Miami to NC State's Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, where they defeated the Hurricanes 27-23.[37]
The Neuse River, Roanoke River, Waccamaw River, and New River exceeded 500-year flood levels, although damage was less in these areas (compared to the Tar River) due to lower population densities. Because most of the Cape Fear River basin lay west of the areas with the highest rainfall, the city of Wilmington was spared the worst of the flooding, although it experienced the highest rainfall locally; However, the Northeast Cape Fear River (a tributary) exceeded 500-year flood levels. Of the state's eastern rivers, only the Lumber River escaped catastrophic flooding.[33]
Rains and strong winds affected many homes across the state, destroying 7,000, rendering 17,000 uninhabitable and damaging 56,000. Ten thousand people lived in emergency shelters after the storm. The widespread flooding caused significant damage to crops. H. David Bruton, Secretary of Health and Human Services of North Carolina, quotes: “Nothing since the Civil War has been so destructive to the families here. “The restoration process will take much longer than the water extraction process.”[13] Approximately 31,000 jobs were lost in over 60,000 companies due to the storm, resulting in lost revenues of nearly $4 billion (1999, $7.02 billion in 2022).[38] In much of the affected area, officials urged people to either boil water or purchase bottled water during Floyd's aftermath.[39]
In contrast to the problems in eastern North Carolina, much of the western part of the state continued to suffer from severe drought.[13[13[13[13
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd#Southeastern_United_States
Floyd threw 19 inches at Wilmington, and that was not untypical for the wider area.
Also note the reference to Hurricane Dennis, which dropped 15 inches over the same region just a few weeks earlier. This certainly puts the lie to Bloomberg's claim that two such events simply shouldn't happen.
NOAA released rainfall totals for the 33 days that covered both storms. Wilmington, for example, received 28 inches:
.
https://web.archive.org/web/20170109112928/https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extremes/1999/september/Sep99rn2.txt
https://web.archive.org/web/20170109113605/https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/extremes/1999/september/ncrain3_pg.gif
In Wilmington, 18 inches fell in two days during Floyd.
Meanwhile, Dennis had already lost 19.91 inches, especially in the last two days of August:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/dennis1999.html
Floyd and Dennis were both exceptional, but many other tropical storms have dropped as much rain as Southport did last month.
So where do they get this “one in a thousand years” nonsense?
Yes, I realize it doesn't literally mean “every thousand years” – it's just a probability statement. You can win the lottery, but that doesn't mean there's no chance of winning again.
Still, there must be something fundamentally wrong with their models if they come to such conclusions.
In fact, even the scientists who dreamed up this nonsense admit that the claims are based on “the historical record.” Clearly the “historical record” does not support their claims. These are just statistical games designed to mislead.
Based on the historical record, they can only tell us about the situation over the last hundred years or so. In other words, the every 70 years figure they mentioned is probably accurate since it refers to individual locations. This also means that such an event is likely to occur somewhere in the United States every year.
However, based on the historical record, they cannot know how frequently these events occurred before “global warming.” And this is where the models are twisted to give the results the authors want – i.e. a 1000-year event.
The whole goal is to scare the public into believing that the weather is worse than ever:
This is not just bad science, but deliberate disinformation.
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