Decreasing CO2 emissions to scale back world warming? Good luck with it! – Watt with it?

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Michael Limburg of Eike, the great German environmental think tank, writes to point out that there has been no discernible impact at all in Mauna Loa’s monthly concentration data from the large reduction in annual CO2 emissions due to the Chinese virus pandemic.

The 18 months from January 2020 to July 2021, during which many nations were under lockdown, are shaded on Mauna Loa’s CO2 concentration chart. Although global CO2 emissions fell by an impressive 27% in the first half of 2020 (Le Quéré et al. 2020), the upward trend in CO2 concentration remained almost linear during the pandemic and continued unchanged thereafter. The width of the yellow trend line is 1 μmol mol–1.

A longer-term trend since 2015, with the width of the trendline again equal to 1 μmol mol–1:

The upward trend in the total anthropogenic greenhouse effect has remained almost perfectly linear, even despite the sharp reduction in CO2 emissions during the pandemic:

These reflections strongly reinforce the conclusion in my recent article on the lengthening New Pause (now at 8 years 9 months and counting) that even if the whole world did indeed reach net-zero emissions by 2050, the global temperature would rise by then would sink less than a tenth of a degree:

The table shows how little even theoretical global warming would be prevented by reaching net zero worldwide and in different areas.

After 2100 there would be very little to prevent further warming as existing and foreseeable oil and gas resources would be largely exhausted and coal reserves would only last for another half century at current demand.

It can also be calculated how much (or rather how little) global warming would be avoided if the United States doubled its existing installed wind and solar capacity:

From the above calculation (h/t Douglas Pollock) it is clear that wind and sun alone will not be able to bring the United States or the world to net zero. Therefore, the earlier chart was more than a little optimistic. Conclusion: Destroying Western economies for Save The Planet will not benefit the climate in the slightest.

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