This was always the must-watch match of the Euro 2021 Round of 16. When England and Germany meet, they hold nothing back. And in this pure soccer rivalry born out of high-stakes matches in major tournaments, Tuesday’s Euro 2021 Round of 16 elimination game has major implications.
A loss would represent a failure for both nations. But the winner will have a great shot at making the tournament final with less heralded opponents (but no less dangerous) on the horizon: Sweden/Ukraine in the quarters and then Denmark/Czech Republic in the semifinal stage.
England is considered to have the most talented squad in its history, and it’s hoping to realize that potential and win its first-ever Euros. This might be its best chance since hosting the tournament in 1996: This Round of 16 match, the tournament semis and final are all happening on its home field at Wembley Stadium in London.
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Germany has won the Euro competition three times, but the last one came back in 1996, when the Germans knocked off England at Wembley on their way to the title. They enter this Round of 16 game with plenty of question marks from an erratic group stage and a lame-duck head coach (Joachim Low is leaving after the tournament). But they also have a long-standing reputation of rising up to win trophies when others have counted them out.
That German never-say-die spirit has intimidated many opponents in the past and it is sure to come into play on Tuesday, especially with England bearing the weight of the “favorite” designation and with good reason. In addition to playing at home, Gareth Southgate’s team didn’t concede a single goal in its group games. But it was also not terribly convincing in its performances and only scored two goals.
Mix all those ingredients together with a large 40,000-person crowd expected at Wembley, and you’ve got yourself the makings of a classic.
How to watch England-Germany in USA
- Date: Tuesday, June 29
- Time: 12 pm ET
- TV channel: ESPN
- Spanish-language TV: Univision, TUDN
- Streaming: fuboTV, ESPN app, TUDN.tv
ESPN will carry England vs. Germany in English, with Univision and TUDN providing the Spanish-language coverage. Both networks are available to stream on fuboTV (free 7-day trial).
How will Germany play?
The only change that Low has made to his 3-4-3 starting lineup during the group stage has been in the front three. He brought on Leroy Sane for Thomas Muller in the third group match against Hungary.
If Low is expecting to play on the counterattack against England, the speedy Timo Werner could be the best option up top (and he’s fresh). That thinking might also influence the Muller/Sane decision, with Muller potentially proving a better option off the bench to help manage the game.
England has played different formations under Southgate and several English media outlets are projecting Southgate to counter Germany’s 3-4-3 with the same formation, introducing a third central defender.
But there’s no consensus on the right wingback position: Will it be Kieran Trippier, Reece James or Bukayo Saka on the right? On the left it would seem that Luke Shaw will win out over Ben Chilwell, who has been forced to self-isolate in recent days for being a close contact with a COVID-19 positive case (Scotland’s Billy Gilmour). English midfielder Mason Mount has been in Chilwell’s same boat and hasn’t trained regularly. For that reason, it would be a risk to see him thrown into this game.
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Many want to see Jadon Sancho in the mix given his experience against German players during his time with his club team Borussia Dortmund in Germany. But he’s only played six minutes thus far and if he features, it’d likely be off the bench.
England vs. Germany: odds & prediction
Southgate has been doing his best to downplay it, but this English team is under pressure and the weight of the expectations, the crowd and the history of failures will make for a fascinating dynamic and one that the Germans should undoubtedly play into.
Germany will be happy sitting back and letting England have the initiative and the ball. In that scenario, Low’s men will look to pounce with moments of high pressing and lightning-fast counterattacks. German attackers Kai Havertz and Timo Werner, who both play for Chelsea FC in London, have the skill sets to shine in that kind of game.
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England also doesn’t have that much of a home-field advantage: It hasn’t defeated Germany at Wembley in the last seven matches there. Given the English team we’ve seen in the group stage — tight, tense, and unsure of itself — this is not a spot you want to bet against Germany.
One of these days England will “bring it home.” But until the national team has shown that it has overcome its many complexes and is comfortable strutting among Europe’s elite, it doesn’t get the pick in this pregame forecast.
Prediction: England 1, Germany 3
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
- England to win (90 mins): +138
- England to advance: -130
- Draw (90 minutes): +230
- Germany to win (90 mins): +210
- Germany to advance: +110
- Germany to win and both teams to score: +500
- Germany -0.25 Asian Handicap: +165
- Germany +0.25 Asian Handicap: -124
- Over 2.5 total goals: +108
- Total ball possession by Germany under 51.5%: +120