Even short-term local weather and climate modelers get every little thing incorrect – what’s incorrect with that?

Reposted by NoTricksZone

By P. Gosselin on February 19, 2021

Many climate policies are based on scenarios that are generated by models. Depending on what these models do, measures and costly regulations are put in place to mitigate the worst. So we hope the modellers get it right. Unfortunately, they are still shooting in the dark. Short-term models too!

TWC predicted a wicker suitcase

It turns out that most of the models are junk quality when it comes to forecast quality. For example, the weather channel published its winter outlook up to March here not so long ago:

The area of ​​the United States, which has been hit by one of the most vicious cold spells in the past 100 years, was indeed forecast to be “well above normal” or “well above normal”. So far the exact opposite has happened.

We have to ask ourselves what it takes to get a license to do weather forecasting these days and we have to feel sorry for the companies and industries that have relied on these botched forecasts.

However, these are the views that policy makers insist that we must heed them and take immediate (costly) action. “Follow science,” activists and policy makers like to say.

El Nino debacle of the Potsdam Institute

Another example of short to medium term projections are the El Nino events, which have global implications. The ability to accurately predict these events would be a very valuable tool.

And recently the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany claimed to have developed a model that can predict events with an 80% probability. A press release from PIK in November 2019 even claimed that the team of renowned researchers had developed a new, far better model that could predict an El Niño event in late 2020 a year in advance in November 2019.

Today, February 2021, the results are available and they are ugly: The Equatorial Pacific 3.4 region is close to the conditions of La Nina and is therefore in complete contradiction to the warm forecasts of the Potsdam Institute. The “groundbreaking” PIK model, which was partially developed by Prof. Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, is a complete failure and completely wrong:

The above ECMWF chart shows the ENSO forecasts for the period July 2020 to January 2021 (many thin red lines) compared to the measured SSTA in Nino area 3.4 (blue dotted line).

The ECMWF forecasts were on average one degree Celsius too warm. La Niña conditions have been in place since August 2020 with measured values ​​of -0.5 ° C deviations and colder.

“Model waste”

“The ‘groundbreaking’ PIK model has produced model waste worldwide and has fallen out of favor with German ‘climate science’. In addition, it currently looks as if the cold La Niña will continue to cool us down until 2022, ”snow fan reported here.

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