From the climateREALISM
By H. Sterling Burnett
The Daily Mail published an alarming Easter-themed story saying that climate change has driven up the price of chocolate Easter eggs. That's wrong. Prices of chocolate Easter eggs and other chocolate candies have increased; However, data shows that this is not due to a shortage of cocoa beans, as cocoa production has increased as the Earth has warmed. If climate change does not affect cocoa production, it cannot be the reason for rising prices.
“With Easter fast approaching, you may have noticed that Easter eggs are more expensive this year,” begins the Daily Mail article titled “Chocolate Easter eggs have risen in price by 50% or more in the UK – scientists say Climate”. The change is to blame. “But it’s not just inflation, as scientists say climate change is one of the main reasons your chocolate is becoming more expensive.”
“A combination of wet heatwaves and drought has hit this year’s cocoa harvest, according to researchers at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU),” writes the Daily Mail.
The ECIU's claim is false on several counts. Firstly, heat waves and heavy rains, punctuated by periods of drought, occur frequently, not infrequently, in the West African region. These conditions are referred to there as typical weather. Hot weather is the norm in West Africa. While the northern part of West Africa is the semi-arid Sahel, a transition from the Sahara to savanna grasslands, much of the region consists of tropical forests where rainfall is frequent and often heavy. Therefore, a “wet heat wave” is not uncommon and cocoa production actually requires and thrives in hot, humid conditions, which is why the majority of global cocoa production occurs in jungles and forests near the equator, where much of West Africa lies.
The rains are punctuated by periods of intense drought, particularly in the arid north of West Africa. As the US National Science Foundation recently wrote: “West African droughts are the norm, not an anomaly… some droughts in the past have lasted centuries…” So a year-long drought following heavy rain is not evidence or even an indication of climate change. In fact, history indicates that West Africa periodically cycles from wet periods to dry periods, each lasting several decades. For example, several studies, here , here and here , confirm the region's climate history. Since 1991, the Sahel region of West Africa has experienced a rainy period, recovering from an extended dry period from the early 1970s to the 1990s. As has been pointed out repeatedly at Climate Realism, scientific panels here and here, for example, recognize climate change as a sign of a shift in average weather recorded over a 30-year period, rather than as weather experienced in a single year or multiple years occurs. There is no drought or extreme rainfall trend to suggest that climate change is affecting normal rainfall patterns in West Africa. Rather, the current weather was well within historical cyclical norms for the region.
While the weather has changed little in the cocoa-growing region of West Africa, cocoa production has changed dramatically, even as the weather has fluctuated from year to year. Like most other crops, cocoa production has increased significantly during the recent period of climate change, partly in response to increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) shows that during the period when climate alarmists claim warming was at its worst, between 1992 and 2022 (the latter being the most recent year for which data is available): The Cocoa bean production in West Africa increased by more than 158 percent. West Africa set production records 17 times during this period, most recently in 2022. (see figure below)
The story is similar worldwide. Global cocoa bean production grew nearly 120 percent from 1992 to 2022, setting 19 production records, with each of the past six years setting new production records. (see image below)
With West Africa's climate not changing and cocoa production reaching records, it's hard to blame climate change for the higher cost of chocolate Easter eggs in the UK or elsewhere.
Interestingly, the Daily Mail pointed out two other more likely candidates for the price rise in its article: El Niño and inflation. Regrettably, the Daily Mail immediately downplayed these two tangible factors to present the wrong position on climate change.
The major weather fluctuations of the last two years around the world have been marked by the shift from a La Niña year to a “strong El Niño year”, as the Daily Mail admits.
Added to this is the dramatic rise in inflation affecting most of the world, complicated by supply chain issues. It should be noted that inflation is partly driven by developed countries' climate policies, which have increased the cost of producing and using fossil fuels, contributing to higher costs of energy for processing and fuels used to transport cocoa has ready-made chocolate products.
In conclusion, there is no evidence that climate change played any role in the UK chocolate Easter egg crisis. Instead of publishing another fairy tale: “Climate change causes everything bad,” the Daily Mail would better serve its readers by checking the facts and publishing them. This would reduce readers' climate anxiety and focus their attention on a more likely cause of higher chocolate prices: government climate policies that increase energy costs.
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