Baker Mayfield and the 2020 Browns are close to the franchise’s first AFC playoff spot in 18 years and are close to their best record since returning to the NFL in 1999. Sunday night’s win over the Giants in Week 15 earned them much closer.
Cleveland (10-4) comes from week 15 as the number 5 and top wild card in the AFC. Even after losing to Baltimore (9-5) in Week 14, the Browns stay there because they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the No. 6 Colts (also 10-4). The Browns also stayed one game ahead of the No. 7 Dolphins (9-5) and No. 8 Ravens.
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With the chance of a free fall to 9: 7, the Browns are close to the playoff spot. Not only do you have a valuable tiebreaker over the Colts, but they also have a valuable tiebreaker over the AFC South-leading Titans. Their loss to the Raiders is irrevocable as Las Vegas is now three games behind the Browns and two weeks left.
Here are the three remaining results for the Browns and what all of these scenarios can mean:
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Browns go 2-0 and finish 12-4
The Browns will play in the playoffs this way no matter what the Titans, Colts, Ravens or Dolphins do. They would be guaranteed to finish second in the AFC Nord and have a seed no lower than their current No. 5.
A win means the Browns would beat the Steelers in week 17. But the Browns can’t win the division due to a division record difference unless the Steelers also lose to the Bengals on Monday night and the Colts next week.
Should the Browns win AFC North 12-4, the Bills would have to lose and fall to 11-5 to move up to second place. However, due to victories, they would not be lower than 3rd place over the Colts and Titans.
Browns go 1-1 and finish 11-5
This is a more reasonable scenario as the Browns lost to the Ravens as slight underdogs in week 14 and will have a similar status to the Steelers in week 17. However, in week 16 they are heavily favored for beating the Jets (1-) 13) on the go.
It’s unlikely that both the Titans and Colts will win 4-12, taking away the Browns’ tiebreaker against the AFC South leaders. There’s a better chance both of them are 11-5. The dolphins have a slim chance of running the table and reaching 11-5.
That leaves the Ravens, who would have a very good shot to 11: 5 with two very cheap games. Here the Browns see a worst-case three-way tie between them, the Ravens, and AFC South runner-up.
The Titans are a good bet to finish 8-4 in the AFC game. The Colts would be looking at a 7-5 conference record if they finished 11-5. The Browns finished 7-5 in the conference with a loss. The Ravens would also have a 7-5 conference record from their victory.
If the Titans and Colts both finish 4-12, the Titans will need to hold the division-record tiebreaker to win the South. In sweeping the Browns, the Ravens have the head-to-head tiebreaker over them, and like the Browns they have the tiebreaker over the Colts. The Ravens, who also defeated the Colts, would jump to 5th place with a sweep of the other two teams. The Browns would come next in the pecking order, finishing sixth ahead of the Colts.
Browns go 0-2 and finish 10-6
The Browns shouldn’t take the Jets lightly, but this team is suddenly confident after deeply angering the Rams in Los Angeles. Then come the Steelers. With 10: 6 the Browns would certainly end up behind the runner-up of the AFC South and the Ravens.
So the question is, could the Browns hold the playoff spot above the Dolphins? The dolphins that hit 10-6 would give them a conference record of 7-5. The Browns would have a 6-6 mark with losses to the Jets and Steelers.
The Browns will be in great shape if they win at least once in the last two weeks. When it gets cold in late December / early January, there is a slim chance of missing the playoffs.
