Originally published at ClimateREALISM
Recently, several media outlets claimed that June 2024 was the world's hottest June on record, capping a streak of 12 or 13 warmer-than-normal months. They attributed this to man-made climate change. Each of the news stories made false claims about climate tipping points being reached, extreme weather events being reached, and the ongoing heatwave being proof that a “climate crisis” is looming.
Here are some of the headlines: Data shows temperatures have been 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial average for 12 months (The Guardian). June set a monthly heat record for the 13th month in a row, but July could break a new record (National Public Radio). And the world is set for its hottest year on record as the 1.5 degree mark has been exceeded for 12 months in a row (Financial Times).
The ongoing scaremongering around the 1.5 degree temperature limit has unsettled people around the world. For example, this infographic from the Asia-Pacific division of the International Union of Food Workers (IUF) states (bold text by the author):
Global warming caused by human activities reached about 1°C over the past 170 years and increased by 0.2°C per decade. Scientists warn that an average increase in the Earth's surface temperature of more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels will have catastrophic effects on the environment and human health.
Yet, even though the Earth's temperature was above the so-called temperature limit for 12 months, nothing bad happened on a global scale. Claims of climate catastrophe after we crossed the so-called 1.5-degree limit never materialized. The limit was nothing more than a political talking point at the 2015 Paris climate conference, as described in this Associated Press article: The Magic 1.5: What lies behind the elusive main goal of climate talks. The AP wrote: “In some ways, both the 1.5- and 2-degree limits are somewhat arbitrary,” Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson said in an email. “Every tenth of a degree counts!”
Now, despite crossing this arbitrary limit, the “crisis” that progressive politicians and alarmists in the mainstream media had warned about has failed to materialize.
Let's first look at global temperature. The source of all this news is a recent press release from Copernicus, part of the European Commission. A graphic from Copernicus, shown in Figure 1 below, illustrates the “boundary” and the 12-month temperature peak:
Figure 1 – Twelve-month moving average anomalies of global average surface air temperature relative to the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average, based on monthly values from January 1940 to May 2024. Data source: ERA5. Source: C3S/ECMWF.
Note the sharp peak in Figure 1, which reaches its peak at 1.63 °C. Figure 2 below contains details of the year-round maximum temperature provided by Copernicus.
Figure 2 – Monthly global surface air temperature anomalies (°C) compared to 1850–1900 from January 1940 to May 2024, shown as a time series for consecutive 12-month periods from June to May of the following year. The most recent 12 months (June 2023 – May 2024) are shown with a thick red line, while all other years are shown with thin lines shaded according to the decade, from blue (1940s) to brick red (2020s). Data source: ERA5. Source: C3S/ECMWF.
Note in Figure 2 that global temperatures have already started declining since their peak 5 months ago, and will likely soon fall below 1.5°C.
As you can see in Figure 1 and confirmed in Figure 2, this sharp rise in temperature is unlike anything previously seen in the temperature record. It makes you wonder: why? Did humanity suddenly start burning fossil fuels to produce more carbon dioxide in a single year?
No, but there was a unique volcanic eruption. According to this article from NASA Research, a volcanic eruption released enough water vapor into the stratosphere to cause a rapid chemical change. They say:
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano on January 15, 2022, produced the largest underwater explosion ever recorded with modern scientific instruments, ejecting enormous amounts of water and volcanic gases into the atmosphere, more than any other eruption in the satellite age.
In case you didn't know, NASA also says that water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas in this article Steamy Relationships: How Atmospheric Water Vapor Amplifies Earth's Greenhouse Effect:
Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas on Earth. It is responsible for about half of the greenhouse effect on Earth – the process that occurs when gases in the Earth's atmosphere trap heat from the sun. Greenhouse gases keep our planet habitable. Without them, the Earth's surface temperature would be about 33 degrees Celsius lower.
Imagine that the eruption of the Hunga Tonga volcano spewed massive amounts of water vapor into the stratosphere, the likes of which had never been seen before, for the first time in history since humans were able to measure such a thing. See Figure 3 below.
Figure 3 – This graphic shows how the release of water vapor from the Hunga-Tonga volcano accelerated stratospheric ozone depletion. Image credit: Chelsea Thompson/Chemical Sciences LaboratoryFigure 3 – This graphic shows how the release of water vapor from the Hunga-Tonga volcano accelerated stratospheric ozone depletion. Image credit: Chelsea Thompson/Chemical Sciences Laboratory
According to a scientific paper published shortly after the eruption, “observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard NASA's Aura satellite immediately after the eruption showed that this single event increased water vapor in Earth's normally dry stratosphere by about 10%.” With that much extra water vapor (the most potent greenhouse gas) entering the atmosphere, global warming was inevitable.
Another scientific article titled “Tonga eruption could temporarily push Earth closer to 1.5°C warming” stated: “The underwater eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai has spewed megatons of water vapor into the stratosphere and will contribute to an increase in global warming over the next five years.”
In addition, there was an immediate depletion of ozone in the upper atmosphere. NASA Research says: “Our measurements showed that ozone concentrations in the stratosphere decreased rapidly immediately after the eruption – by as much as 30% in air with the highest water vapor concentrations.”
The EPA says, “The ozone layer in the stratosphere absorbs some of the sun's radiation and blocks it from reaching the Earth's surface.” So with the ozone layer reduced, more sunlight reached the Earth's surface than usual, and the extra energy stays in the atmosphere as water vapor increases as a greenhouse gas. The eruption had a twofold effect on the Earth's atmosphere. You could have bet that it would make the planet warmer.
And it did. This completely natural volcanic eruption event caused the 1.63°C temperature rise seen in Figure 1. Meanwhile, the media – whether through inadvertent or willful ignorance – remains blind to how the atmosphere responded to the volcano. Accordingly, they continue to write misleading horror stories and blame the recent temperature rise on humans due to their use of modern energy and transportation. For example, CNN recently wrote in an article about the rise in global temperature:
The climate crisis is primarily caused by humans burning coal, oil and gas to generate energy. El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that originates in the Pacific Ocean, has also caused temperatures to rise in much of the world in recent months.
No mention of the volcano or the resulting steam explosion, absolving humans of responsibility. Surprised? Don't be. This shameless pattern of “the world is getting hotter and it's your fault” has been repeated over and over by the media for years. When evidence that humans are not responsible for the current warming surge is widely and readily available, the media ignores it. Even though the Hunga-Tonga volcanic eruption did nothing bad on a global scale, they seem even more focused on the false narrative of a “climate crisis” than on factual reporting. This is shameful and wrong.
The widely warned 1.5 degree Celsius temperature rise has now been exceeded for a full year, yet extreme weather events and deaths due to temperature and weather did not increase at an unusual rate. This disproves years of mainstream media claims that more severe and frequent extreme weather events and more deaths would be the inevitable result of exceeding the 1.5 degree Celsius temperature rise. This is just another in a long line of failed predictions.
What will the media say in a few years, when temperatures start to drop again because the extra water vapor has evaporated and the ozone layer has returned to normal? Maybe they will embrace Emily Littela with a collective “Never mind!”
Anthony Watts
Anthony Watts is a senior fellow for environment and climate at the Heartland Institute. Watts has been in the weather business on and off camera since 1978 as a television meteorologist and currently produces daily radio forecasts. He has developed weather graphics presentation systems for television and specialty weather instruments and has co-authored peer-reviewed articles on climate issues. He runs the world's most visited climate website, the award-winning wattsupwiththat.com.
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