L A Instances Falsely Hypes El Nino Pushed Modest World Temperature Will increase as “File-Scorching” Local weather Change Outcomes • Watts Up With That?
Guest essay by Larry Hamlin
NASA GISS has released its El Niño driven October 2023 global average temperature anomaly value of 1.34 degrees C (2.412 degrees F) above the temperature anomaly baseline period of 1951-1980 (57.2 degrees F or 14 degrees C) which is the highest measured GISS October anomaly value (shown below). This October anomaly value represents a global absolute average temperature of 59.612 degrees F.
The second highest GISS measured October global average temperature anomaly occurred in 2015 with a value of 1.09 degrees C (1.962 degrees F) which represents a global absolute average temperature value of 59.162 degrees F reflecting a difference of 0.45 degrees F from the October 2023 value (0.75% growth during the last 8 years).
This October 2023 anomaly value is below the El Niño driven September 2023 global average temperature anomaly value of 1.47 degrees C (2.646 degrees F) with this September value representing the highest GISS global average temperature anomaly measured to date which represents a global absolute average temperature of 59.846 degrees F.
The highest GISS global average temperature anomaly value measured in September 2023 is comparable to the highest El Niño driven average temperature anomaly value that occurred in February 2016 (the last prior El Nino event) of 1.36 degrees C (2.448 degrees F) representing a global absolute average temperature of 59.648 degrees F.
These two most recent El Nino driven NASA GISS highest global average temperature anomaly values represent a global absolute average temperature difference of 0.198 degrees F (0.33% difference during the last 7.5 years) as displayed in Table 1 below.
Comparing global absolute average temperatures for the months of June, July and August 2023 show that the difference between these months and the 2nd highest value for each of these months amounts to 0.27 degrees F for June (year 2022), 0.432 degrees F for July (year 2019) and 0.306 degrees F for August (Year 2016) with global absolute average temperatures of 59.126 degrees F, 59.324 degrees F and 59.342 degrees F respectively.
The NASA GISS global average temperature anomaly values for the months of June, July, August, September and October 2023 are characterized in an L A Times article as:
“Indeed, Monday’s announcement came only weeks after officials warned that 2023 is on track to become Earth’s warmest year on record following a record-hot June, July, August, September and October. The latest milestone is noteworthy, but also a reminder that it’s not too late to change course, said Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist with Berkeley Earth.”
Table 2 below shows these 5 months which the L A Times article characterizes as “record-hot” June, July, August, September, and October with Table 2 identifying both the “record-hot” global absolute average temperature value (degrees F) along with the global absolute average temperature increase (degrees F) for each respective month’s 2nd highest value and the year it occurred.
Apparently the L A Times wants its readers to falsely fear that earth is approaching some hyped critical warming threshold because in a global El Niño year “record-hot” global absolute average temperatures for June, July, August, September and October of year 2023 occurred with increased temperatures of 0.27 degrees F, 0.432 degrees F, 0.307 degrees F, ,0.882 F and 0.45 degrees F respectively from their prior second highest values.
The. L A Times climate alarmists flawed claims that global anomaly increased temperature levels are “hot” or “hottest” are grossly misleading and based on considering only temperature anomaly increases while concealing the impacts of these increases on the baseline period temperatures.
An indicator of what is considered “hot” is provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) which has defined standards for healthy indoor temperatures. WHO recommends a minimum indoor temperature of 68 degrees Fahrenheit, but if you have children or are a senior 75 degrees would be appropriate with these temperatures far above the recent EL Nino driven “record-hot” global absolute average temperatures as discussed above.
Global absolute average temperature measured levels ranging between 59.126- and 59.846-degrees F as noted in the above tables are grossly mischaracterized by climate alarmists as being “hot” or “hottest” by alarmists that concealed these absolute temperature values from the public and addressed only their respective temperature anomaly values.
The L A Times has repeatedly mislead its readers with ridiculous climate alarmist propaganda articles that falsely use global average temperature anomaly increases to hype that these increases represent dangerous “heat” outcomes in the U.S. while concealing the absolute temperature U.S. data that shows their claims are completely wrong as addressed here, here and here.
This latest L A Times article fails to provide long established global temperature anomaly data establishing that global temperatures change significantly during periods of El Niño’s as shown below with the UAH satellite data showing significant temperature anomaly spikes occurring in prior El Niño years in 1998, 2016 and now again in 2023. These natural climate created El Niño driven temperature spikes are always followed by reduced global temperature anomalies after the El Niño event has subsided as clearly shown in the UAH data record that is concealed by the Times.
The Times article latches onto the incredibly misleading claims hyped by Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service that the planet’s anomaly temperature “soared 2.07 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, or the 1850 to 1900 average” based on a couple of mid-November 2023 days measurements threatening to reach the climate model grossly flawed IPCC’s claim that a 2-degree Celsius increase global average temperature anomaly level represents a “critical climate threshold”.
The 1850 to 1900 period used by Copernicus was at the end of the “little ice age” climate era where many global climate regions experienced extremely low temperatures.
NASA GISS uses a 1951 to 1980 baseline period average to evaluate preindustrial temperature levels for determining temperature anomalies along with evaluating temperature anomaly data in the period from 1880 to 2023. Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service use of a preindustrial average baseline period between 1850 to 1900 deliberately biases their anomaly data to a time of very low global temperatures that existed due to the Little Ice Age climate event between 1300 and 1850.
The flawed climate model driven 2-degree “threshold” increase in global average temperature anomaly hyped by alarmists would occur much more quickly for a low temperature biased baseline period between 1850 to 1900 versus the 1951 to 1980 period used by NASA GISS.
The flawed climate alarmist claims of a 2-degree increased global temperature anomaly climate “critical threshold” limit are absurd. These claims are based on a scientifically flawed climate model referred to as RCP8.5 that was rejected by the most recent UN Intergovernmental Panel Assessment AR6 Report. Roger Pielke Jr. addresses the misuse of the RCP8.5 climate model as:
“Like all propagandists, government entities do not abandon concepts that are effective, even if they are false. The RCP8.5 scenario was abandoned in the report of Working Group I, The Physical Science, of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report (AR6, 2021). But the unrealistic scenario reappeared under a different name in the politically written Summary for Policymakers and the Synthesis Report, March 20, 2023.”
He further addresses the misuse of the rejected RCP8.5 climate model in the recent Fifth National Climate Assessment report by noting:
“Again, in NCA5 there is no effort to establish the warming influence of carbon dioxide based on physical evidence of what is occurring in the atmosphere. It is all speculation from global climate models that are demonstrated to be false. US government agencies will not abandon these defective models, or insist that they be reliable, because they are effective propaganda tools. Climate modelers will continue to adjust the models to comply with recorded history, then drop the adjustments when making predictions/ projections. Eventually, the US public will suffer from highly misguided policies, such as wind and solar providing affordable, reliable electricity, and trust in the government will erode.”
Climate scientist Dr. Judith Curry characterized the RCP8.5 climate model as:
“RCP8.5 is sometimes referred to as a ‘business as usual’ scenario. It is not. Rather, it is an extreme scenario”.
The graph below shows the yearly NASA GISS global surface average temperature annual comparisons for years 1880 – 2022.
The top graph format used by the GISS is incredibly misleading and grossly exaggerates reported anomaly values, that in the top graph below, have been converted to their global absolute average temperature values. The bottom graph shows the GISS yearly absolute average temperature values starting with a zero-degree F absolute temperature value, so the entire measured temperature range scale is provided for comparisons.
Both graphs show the same global absolute average temperature outcomes in degrees F, but the top graph format is used to grossly exaggerate the global average temperature anomaly results as hyped by climate alarmists. Just more climate alarmism propaganda deception and distortion.