This week, the PGA tour for the 2021 Masters is shifting to Augusta National – the crown jewel of them all, in my opinion. The course has bentgrass greens and measures at approximately 7,475 yards for a par 72. There are plenty of iconic holes but nothing towers above the Amen Corner course of 11, 12 and 13. Dustin Johnson, the defending champion, comes in as the betting favorite with + 950 chances of winning – understandably, when he set a tournament record in 2019.
88 golfers should play on the field, playing for the legendary green jacket. When it comes to the weather, there should be rain-free, perfect conditions (fingers crossed). The track itself should play fast and firmly. This year’s event will be a little different than last year as fans are allowed to return with limited capacity.
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According to Rick Gehman, the two most correlated stats that lead to success at this event are “Driving Distance” and “Strokes Gained: Total”.
Golf betting always seems to get hooked, which is why I became addicted. I have a feeling this is going to be a classic so I can’t wait. Let’s see if we can win some money this week.
You won’t find anything groundbreaking when it comes to my bet selections below, but other than digging into the data in the RickRunGood.com database, I try to look for people with solid stats who have a history on the respective course were successful and / or players who are leaning in the right direction and coming into the event.
Masters picks, predictions 2021
* Chances of winning through DraftKings Sportsbook
Best bets to win instantly
I totally like Dustin Johnson and Jordan SpiethBut the story goes that it is difficult to win this tournament in a row (DJ) and two weeks in a row (Spieth). So I’m going with a couple of other guys this week.
Patrick Cantlay +2050
I see Cantlay value in this number. He’s solid in every way and has been one of the best players in the game for the past six months. His Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green numbers are better than anyone else’s, and his long iron game is second to none. He has had successes on this course in the past as well, finishing ninth and 17th on his last two trips.
Cantlay is also in the top 5 of the RickRunGood Tournament Predictor. People who appear at the top of his model simulations are always there on Sundays. It’s not the end of everything, but it’s another tool to use when trying to narrow the map down. At this price, it’s one of my favorite weekend bets.
Patrick Reed +3500
Getting 35-1 odds on a former champion is juicy. He also won the Farmers Insurance Open earlier this year. Reed is one of those people who stand up for these kind of events and I’m sure he’ll come in with a chip on his shoulder knowing that not many choose him to win. The only big metric his game currently lacks is “Driving Distance” but hopefully he can make up for it with his strong putting game and iron game.
Best sleeper / long shot picks
I’m looking for people who are longer than 35-1 odds on this section. These guys are stallions themselves so it’s kind of crazy to call them long shots, but for this section they do the job. If either of them is in the mix on Sunday, I may try to live a bet and hedge a little to make sure I pocket some pizza money.
Matt Fitzpatrick +4000
Fitzpatrick has been one of the most consistent players on the Tour that season with four top 11 finishes. He drives the ball better and further and is fourth in the field in “Strokes Gained: Total”. These are two of the big metrics that are usually required for the success of this tournament. So at 40: 1 I can’t resist. He has also had a top 10 result here in the past, which is the icing on the cake for me.
Will Zalatoris +7500
Zalatoris, the young phenomenon, is a leader in Strokes Gained: Total and has played solid golf all season. He’s also top 20 in “Driving Distance,” which is great here. The problem is the experience. To like Collin Morikawa Last year, no matter how well you play, this course takes some learning to beat. But with these adversities it is worth a little pinch.
Speaking of Morikawa, I bet it at +3000 a while ago and think I’d get a better number. Unfortunately, his chances are currently around the same price. I still think it’s a good time to buy him high as I love the kid and his iron game. His comments this week seemed to suggest that he had learned a lot from his experiences over the past year, which will be a big boost for him this week.
I also took a little nibble from Brooks Koepka at +3000. Everything indicates he’ll be playing, but he’s still coming back from knee surgery so who knows? However, there is only something about him and great events. He has a special ability to face the occasion, so I take the bait. I’m spitting out this week so what’s a few more dollars? It’s Masters week so let’s enjoy it.
There you have it. I hope you can enjoy this prestigious event and win some money at the same time.
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