After two division round games of the NFL playoffs on Saturday, there are two more games on Sunday. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to the games, a bold prediction for each matchup, and the final results.
In addition, ESPN Stats & Information provides statistics that are known for each game, and the Football Power Index (FPI) includes a matchup rating (on a scale from 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN Chalk’s Dave Bearman hands out helpful nuggets, and Matt Bowen points out an important matchup that will also be featured. It’s all here to prepare you for a full weekend of NFL playoff football.
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 62.4 | Spread:: KC-10 (57.5)
What to look out for: The Chiefs have fought unsuccessfully for a season to force opponents to score more field goals and fewer touchdowns when in the red zone. They allowed a TD on 77% of opponents’ drives within the 20, which was the worst in the league. This game would be a good time to fix it. The Browns are offensively efficient within the 20 and score a touchdown 74% of the time. That was the third best in the NFL. – Adam Teicher
Courageous prediction: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Browns QB Baker Mayfield will repeat their touchdown passes for 2016. But this time Mahomes gets the ball for the last time and drives KC into the next round with a winning run. – Jake Trotter
Stat of knowing: Browns Runs Back Nick Chubb has scored a TD in seven straight games, the longest run by any Browns player since 1970 (Bo Scott also went seven straight). The Browns are 10-3 if Chubb plays this season, scoring a quick TD in 12 of those 13 games, averaging 163.0 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry as a team. Without Chubb? Cleveland is only 2-2 with 95.5 rushing yards per game, 3.9 yards per rush and zero points on the ground.
Injuries: Browns | Bosses
Bowen’s Matchup Keys: With a zone-heavy approach, the Browns can “exceed” the Chiefs’ seams and outer verticals from two deep shells. That will force Mahomes to throw under windows and contain deep ball play. Continue reading.
1:07
Domonique Foxworth breaks down the keys to the privateers in an attempt to defeat the Saints, emphasizing the importance of Rob Gronkowski.
Betting nugget: The narrative “Andy Reid off a bye” gets a lot of attention and his 8-3 record with the Chiefs (regular season or playoffs) is nice. But he’s only 6-5 against the spread in these games, with unders 6-4-1. Continue reading.
Trotter’s choice: Chiefs 35, Browns 34
Teicher’s choice: Chiefs 27, Browns 22
FPI prediction: KC 81.3% (average 11.7 points)
Matchup must be read: Ghostbuster Mayfield exorcises playoff demons and gives Brown’s confidence … Smoked Sausage, Black Pearl, Ferrari Right: How Chiefs creatively name their wild pieces … The Legend of Mayfield and Mahomes’ 2016 epic … Since the release of Hunt have Chiefs Seven different backs run them in a hurry … Kingsbury gave Chiefs ‘Mahomes and Browns’ Mayfield a chance when others passed by
Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating: 97.0 | Spread:: NO-3 (52)
What to look out for: You may have heard that this game will feature a pair of future Hall of Fame quarterbacks named Tom Brady and Drew Brees. It’s their first playoff meet-up, and it could be their last, as Brees is considering retiring after the season. Brady is attempting a conference championship game for the 14th time, while Brees is aiming for his fourth appearance. They are both flanked by top 6 defenses. And while New Orleans dominated the regular season (34-23 and 38-3), the Bucs have been one of the hottest teams in football in five games in a recent winning streak. – Mike Triplet
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Courageous prediction: Buccaneers receiver Antonio Brown will score two touchdowns. He was a differentiator on the offensive, lining up all over the field and really taking it off since the Bucs last faced the Saints – when Brown only had three training sessions with the team under his belt. Brown has scored in four games in a row, including last week’s win. – Jenna Laine
Stat of knowing: New Orleans cornerback Marshon Lattimore has lined up against Bucs receiver Mike Evans in the past three games, according to NFL Next Gen Stats data. Evans did not have six-goal receptions in these games. But Tampa Bay has options even when Evans is bottled again. Tight end Rob Gronkowski has 12 receiving TDs in the playoffs, the second most connected to John Stallworth (Jerry Rice had 22). And recipients Brown and Chris Godwin have each received five TD catches (including playoffs) since week 14, the most involved Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams in the NFL during that time.
Injuries: Privateer | Saints
Bowen’s Matchup Keys: Pressure is a big part of the Tampa Bay Defense identity. I think we’ll see Sim Printing from Tampa working to speed up the process for Brees. Todd Bowles’ defense had a 37.5% lightning rate in the week 9 matchup against the Saints. Continue reading.
Betting nugget: Do you think the saints cover? If so, it’s worth noting that Unders are 7-1 in the last eight New Orleans covers. Continue reading.
2:21
Dan Orlovsky and Ryan Clark collapse as Antonio Brown’s ability to win his matchups opens the whole offensive for Tampa Bay.
Laine’s choice: Saints 27, privateers 24
Triplet choice: Saints 26, privateers 23
FPI prediction: NO, 53.6% (average 1.2 points)
Matchup must be read: Brady’s Bucs is an improved team since the last fight against the Saints … The final round of the Brees-Brady rivalry could ensue … Brady’s Tampa Timeline: Events That Defined His First Year as Buc … A beautiful spirit: like saints’ Kamara stays’ two moves ahead ‘
The early games on Saturday
Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating: 82.8 | Spread:: GB -6.5 (45.5)
What to look out for: The Packers were number 1 in the NFL in the standings. The Rams were the number 1 defender. The Packers took first place in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate and Run Block Win Rate. The Rams’ defensive duo, Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd, generated 90 pressures together, the most of any pass-rushing pair. Throw all-pro Green Bay receiver Davante Adams against all-pro LA cornerback Jalen Ramsey and this is the ultimate battle between strength and strength. – Rob Demovsky
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Courageous prediction: From 75 and sunny to frozen tundra, the Rams’ defense is not afraid of cold temperatures. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers may have only thrown 89 picks in 6,587 passes in his career, but the Rams defenses are on the rise. Watch out for one of the Rams’ cornerbacks to pick Rodgers up and return him for the sixth defensive touchdown of the season. – Lindsey Thiry
Stat of knowing: The Packers’ Rodgers and Adams combined 76.7% of their attempts this season, the second highest rate among the 60 QB-WR duos with 150 attempts over the past 20 seasons. But will Ramsey be up to the job on the other side of the scrimmage line? Pro Bowl recipients caught 37% of their passes when Ramsey was the next defender this season. This is based on data from the NFL Next Gen Stats. This is the lowest value a defender will allow. Ramsey also ranks in the top 5 for lowest percentage of completion above allowable expectation (minus 9.3%) according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Injuries: Aries | packer
Bowen’s Matchup Keys: Rams running back Cam Akers looked like a veteran in the wildcard win over the Seahawks. Now look for trainer Sean McVay who mixes his staff up with one and two tight ending sentences, using inside / outside zone and gap schemes to open up Aker’s clean lanes. Continue reading.
Betting nugget: The ending has beaten in each of Green Bay’s last five playoff games. But while the Rams’ wild card win exceeded the grand total, 11 of the last 13 regular season games in Los Angeles were redeemed under the tickets. Continue reading.
Thiry’s choice: Rams 23, Packers 20
Demovsky’s choice: Packers 24, Rams 20
FPI prediction: GB, 65.1% (average 5.1 points)
Matchup must be read: Floyd’s youngest pass rusher in the first round to be revived by Rams … The good (cold) and the bad (Donald) for Packers versus Rams … Donald on a rib injury: ‘Feel really good’ … Packers’ Rodgers only has 89 interceptions in 6,587 passes – and he hates all of them … Wolford ruled out Goff should start
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET | NBC
Matchup rating: 94.3 | Spread:: BUF -2.5 (50)
What to look out for: The Ravens have flashed their opponents more than any other NFL team this season, with 41% of opposing dropbacks – but Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is ready for it. During the regular season, he faced more lightning bolts than any other quarterback. And he harmed them. In the face of a thunderbolt, he led the NFL with 17 touchdowns (and had two more in the wildcard round last week), finished second in QBR (93.4) and finished fourth in yards per dropback at 7.4. – Marcel Louis-Jacques
Courageous prediction: The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson will be the first quarterback to race 100 yards in consecutive playoff games. He only produced the sixth 100-yard rushing game by a quarterback in the wildcard playoffs last weekend when he ran for 136 in Tennessee. The Bills haven’t allowed a quarterback to gain more than 61 yards for the past two seasons, including Kyler Murray, Cam Newton and even Jackson, who was held at 40 rushing yards in Buffalo 13 months ago. – Jamison Hensley
Stat of knowing: Bill-to Stefon Diggs scored 128 receiving yards in last week’s win. The only players in the Bills franchise history to play two 100-yard games in a single postseason are Hall of Famers James Lofton (1990) and Andre Reed (1992). Diggs led the entire NFL that season with 1,535 yards.
• Divisional round: matchups, X-factors »
• Key to victory for all eight teams »
• Experts predict malfunctions, more »
• Schedule, brackets, TV times »
Injuries: Ravens | bills
Bowen’s matchup key: Expecting to see more Cover 3 of The Bills this week, Baltimore receiver Marquise Brown has to unleash defined concepts that allow Jackson to attack voids in the middle of the field or encounter shooting games in the field. Continue reading.
Betting nugget: The Ravens have played seven games in a row. The only team with a longer streak this season? The bills in weeks 9-17 (eight games in a row; goodbye in week 11). Continue reading.
Hensley’s choice: Ravens 24, Bills 23
Louis-Jacques’ choice: Bills 24, ravens 21
FPI prediction: BAL 51.4% (average 0.5 points)
Matchup must be read: From logo pounding to beer chugging: Ravens ‘Peters has an unpredictable passion … Daboll went beyond X and O to revive the Bill’s passing and his career … Silencing your critics: Ravens’ Jackson has its MVP award, is Bill’s Next? … Allen’s growth shows in first playoff win with Bills … Bills again to accommodate limited fans for the divisional round game against Ravens
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