On April 8, the Astros opened a three-game series at home against the A’s with their fifth straight win over Oakland in the young 2021 season. Houston had won all five of those games by at least four runs and a total of 41-11 points.
Total dominance. The Astros were 6-1, the A’s were 1-7.
That was April 8th. The ranking that came into play on April 22nd looked a little different.
RIVERA: Why the Yankees’ slow start should matter
The A’s are in first place in the AL West with a record of 12-7. Yes, if you count, that’s 11 wins in a row. The Astros are last in the division with a 7-10 record. Yes, if you count it is a range of 1-9.
The point is, it was too early for the A’s to panic and too early for the Astros to celebrate. Remember when we say “Panic or Patience?”
Tommy Pham, parents
Worrying Numbers: .153 average, .017 ISO, 0 HR in 73 PA
Panic or patience? Good thing these numbers aren’t the only ones associated with Pham because they don’t paint a pretty picture. So let’s look at other numbers. His walking share of 15.1 percent is a career high. His strike share of 19.2 percent is a touch away from his career low (18.8 percent). It’s a great combination.
How about the contact he makes? A full 91.3 percent of his contact this year is rated medium / difficult, which is well above his career average of 85.3. It has all but eliminated the “soft contact” element. And his average exit speed this year is 91.8 mph, right on his career average. His barrel percentage is 13 percent, well above his career average of 9.6 percent. The problem is he hits the ball right on the defenders or the defenders make great games. His BABIP (hit average for balls in play) is only 0.196, which is not sustained low and is well below his career average of 0.329. Just watch Mookie Betts rob Pham in this piece. Patience, Parents fans.
New York Yankees
Worrying Numbers: 6-11 recording
Panic or patience? There is very little patience in New York right now, and that’s understandable. The Yankees are a mess. They are linked with the twins for the worst record in the AL, and calls for manager Aaron Boone’s sacking are growing louder. The offensive has big problems – the Americans have the fewest runs in the AL and the team’s OPS + is only 83 – and the defense is just not good. Gerrit Cole was superb and the bullpen was solid, but the rest of the rotation was mediocre at best.
But the Yankees have only played 17 of their 162 games this year. Pennants are not won or lost in April. Patience. Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier are unlikely to end the season with an average of 0.186 or less and an OPS of 0.571, which is currently all four of them. And rotation projects Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon were always just that, projects. There are also young poor people who will eventually get up. Upgrades and / or changes may need to be made, but even that is time.
Marco Gonzales, navigator
Worrying Numbers: 6.04 ERA, 6.07 FIP
Panic or patience? Maybe it’s not fair to include Gonzales – although those ERA / FIP numbers are pretty ugly – because it’s pretty clear that he’s already turned the corner. The left gave up 12 earned runs with 17 hits and five walks in his first two starts, covering 10 1/3 innings. Bleh. On his third start, however, he allowed three hits and two runs in five innings of a game that the Mariners won 4-2.
The fourth start? That is the jewel. Against the Juggernaut Dodgers, Gonzales allowed only two hits and one run in seven outstanding innings, hitting six in 101 fields. Shutting down the best team in baseball is pretty encouraging, isn’t it? Worth a little more patienceeven if his next outing isn’t that great.
Minnesota Twins
Worrying Numbers: 6-11 recording
Panic or patience? The Yankees and Twins have the same record, but at least the Twins have some bright spots. Byron Buxton destroyed baseball when it’s healthy, and perpetual bat Nelson Cruz made Buxton’s six homers this year. Michael Pineda has an ERA of 1.00 in three starts and ace Jose Berrios is rolling in with 30 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.00 in 21 innings that cover four starts. In the bullpen, Taylor Rogers has not yet allowed a deserved run in 7 2/3 innings.
The problem? Not much help. Buxton and Cruz each have six homers (in a total of 95 ABs), and all other players on the team have banded together to form six homers (in 477 ABs). Berrios and Pineda were great in their seven starts, but Kenta Maeda and Matt Shoemaker have a combined ERA of 6.19 in their seven games. Rogers was an outstanding relief, but Alex Colome, Randy Dobnak and Hansel Robles all got a combined ERA of 7.77 in 24 1/3 innings from the bullpen. Oh, and things like that.
Still, patience. Again, the Twins are only 17 games in the season.
Madison Bumgarner, Diamondbacks
Worrying Numbers: 8.48 ERA, 4.3 BB / 9
Panic or patience? Bumgarner signed a five-year, $ 85 million deal with the Diamondbacks ahead of the 2020 season. The return wasn’t good. With nine starts in the shortened 2020 season, MadBum recorded an ERA of 6.48. On its first three launches in 2021, this ERA sat in double digits at 11:20 a.m. Yikes
But maybe there is hope. On his last start against the Nationals, he only allowed one run in five innings, hitting five. A simplified mental approach, he said after the game, helped. “There are a lot of little things going on on our minds and of course I want to keep a lot of them to myself,” said Bumgarner, as reported by MLB.com. “I’ll probably choose to do that now. Maybe I’ll reveal a little more of it later, but that was a key factor I think – the mental side and the way we did it.” A little more patience is needed.
By now, you’ve probably noticed that we chose patience for all five teams / players fighting. We’re about 12 percent of the way through a 162 game schedule, so a little more patience is required. If this was the 2020 season, with only 60 games? Sure, do worry. But we’re back to the endurance season. It’s a long drive, and a few small, sample-sized bumps – that’s a stretch of 20 games – don’t panic.
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