“The Match” is in its fourth edition and this is possibly the most exciting since the original match between Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods in 2018.
This year, Mickelson will mate with Tom Brady, his partner from the second “The Match” competition, and compete against one of the game’s best young golfers, Bryson DeChambeau. His pal will be Aaron Rodgers, who will host a second NFL MVP bout in The Match history (Brady vs. Peyton Manning was the first).
Brady was named the Super Bowl MVP in 2021, while Rodgers was named the NFL’s 2020 regular season MVP.
There will be a lot of action and intrigue surrounding these stars and bettors will certainly want to take part. There are some solid bets for players to take advantage of – and more will come as The Match 4 gets closer.
Here’s a complete The Match 4 betting guide, including odds, best prop bets and a prediction for Phil Mickelson-Tom Brady vs. Bryson DeChambeau-Aaron Rodgers.
Watch ‘The Match 4’ with fuboTV (free 7-day trial)
‘The Match 4’ betting odds
- Bryson DeChambeau-Aaron Rodgers (-182)
- Phil Mickelson-Tom Brady (+135)
Unsurprisingly, DeChambeau and Rodgers are preferred to win “The Match 4”. DeChambeau was the longest rider from the tee on the PGA Tour and the elevation changes on the Moonlight Basin course in Montana will allow him to use his strength to his advantage. Rodgers is considered a better golfer than Brady.
Still, Mickelson “The Match” won head-to-head against Tiger Woods as a strong underdog, so Mickelson and Brady can’t be counted, especially since DeChambeau’s driving precision and play for the green are both mixed.
Prop bets for ‘The Match 4’
Here’s a look at the best prop bets for “The Match 4”.
- Hole 1 winner (no tie): DeChambeau-Rodgers (-125) | Mickelson-Brady (-106)
- First go up 1: DeChambeau-Rodgers (-137) | Mickelson-Brady (+105)
These two bets go hand in hand. If there is a winner from hole 1, it means that team 1 is up. As such, these are easy to couple.
The first hole is a 463 yard par-4 that is clearly downhill. While DeChambeau has the distance advantage, he could get into trouble if he misses his drive. Mickelson can still hit the ball far – it averages 302.6 yards per drive compared to DeChambeau’s 322.4 – and although both are equally imprecise and rank 186 (DeChambeau) and 189 (Mickelson) in driving accuracy, Mickelson is more on the safe side at the opening hole.
So Mickelson and Brady are better choices for taking an early lead. It’s tempting to trust them with the -106 and +105 odds.
- Longest tee hole 1: Bryson DeChambeau (-200) | Phil Mickelson (+140)
- Longest tee hole 6: Bryson DeChambeau (-200) | Phil Mickelson (+140)
- Longest tee hole 8: Bryson DeChambeau (-200) | Phil Mickelson (+140)
DeChambeau drives almost 20 meters more per trip on average than Mickelson. Hole 1 is 463 meters long, hole 6 is 633 meters long and hole 8 is 500 meters long. DeChambeau will blast his driver as hard as possible to try to shorten these holes.
Could Mickelson even overtake him in this matchup? Sure, especially when DeChambeau fails. But betting against DeChambeau in a driving competition is mostly foolhardy. Trust him as a favorite in these three scenarios.
- Leader after six holes (no tie): DeChambeau-Rodgers (-137) | Mickelson-Brady (+105)
As mentioned earlier, the sixth hole is 633 yards long and the second longest on the course. After this hole, DeChambeau and Rodgers should have a head start as DeChambeau will have an easier time cutting the course than Mickelson. In this scenario, even if we’re a little worried about how he and Rodgers might fare on the first hole, it’s worth trusting him.
Phil Mickelson vs. Bryson DeChambeau
Mickelson has been pacing up and down lately. He won the PGA championship on the Kiawah Island course in May, followed by an 11-plus and missed the cut at the US Open. That said, Mickelson made it in four of his last five events this week in the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
DeChambeau was a little more consistent than Mickelson. He hasn’t missed a cut in his last 10 events and has been in the top 10 in three of those tournaments. He’s a great driver, but his lack of accuracy from the tee and his up-and-down approach get him into trouble.
DeChambeau, 27, is considered a better golfer than Mickelson, 51 at this point in her career. DeChambeau is fifth overall in the Official World Golf Ranking, while Mickelson checks in at 31st. That explains why DeChambeau’s chances of winning The Open Championship (20-1) are far better than Mickelson’s (66-1).
DeChambeau has a head-to-head lead over Mickelson for “The Match,” and his case is aided by the fact that his amateur partner is likely to have an advantage over his competition as well.
Tom Brady versus Aaron Rodgers
Brady could be the greatest quarterback of all time, and he and the Buccaneers beat Rodgers and the Packers twice last year – the second time in the NFC championship game – en route to a seventh Super Bowl title for Brady.
But Rodgers beat Brady in golf. His best handicap is 3.5 while Bradys is around 8.1. However, Rodgers believes Brady is better.
“I don’t think Brady is an 8. I’ve played with him and he’s good,” Rodgers said in an interview with Golf Magazine. “I’ve played with all of these guys. Tony [Romo]is a great player. Frosted [Ryan] and I – I hit him a couple of times, he hit me a couple of times. “
Rodgers has been playing more competitively than Brady, especially lately. Rodgers finished ninth in the 2020 Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He worked with Max Homa to reach the top 10 position.
Brady has played with the likes of Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, but his only advantage over Rodgers is that he has played “The Match” with Mickelson before. The lead here goes to 37-year-old Rodgers over 43-year-old Brady.
Prediction for “Das Spiel 4”
It’s hard to decide against Brady and Mickelson. They are all-time winners in their respective sports and have experience playing together in “The Match”.
But this place plays to DeChambeau’s strength. It’s long, but it’s also 7,500 feet above sea level, so he’ll be able to cut it a fair bit. And, as mentioned, Rodgers is a solid golfer himself.
Mickelson won this event twice as an underdog, so The Match 4 should be competitive. But expect DeChambeau and Rodgers to come out on top.
Winner: Bryson DeChambeau & Aaron Rodgers