The media ultimately realizes that the RCP 8.5 local weather mannequin is an over-hyped science fiction – Watts Up With That?

First up, a science fiction preview courtesy of DOOM of the RCP8.5 model:

Coupled Physical Model, CM3

A little sensitivity from the WSJ:

Climate media vs. climate science

The good news is that the scientists themselves have started correcting the record.

By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.

Joe Biden has given climate change a presidential imprimatur as an existential threat, and he does not mean, in the sense of Jean-Paul Sartre, man’s search for meaning in an unpleasant universe.

He means the end of mankind, a claim nowhere to be found in climate science.

This is strange because the real news is elsewhere today. Its movement may look like an ocean liner, the news may be five years before the New York Times gets it, but the climate community has for years been backing away from a worst-case scenario offered to the public as “business as usual” . ”

The article by Zeke Hausfather and Glen Peter from the year Nature magazine in 2020 was a drum-roll moment, in part of which the headline was: “Stop using the worst-case scenario for global warming as the most likely result.”

This followed the 2017 paper by Justin Ritchie and Hadi Dowlatabadi, which asked why climate scenarios suggest an implausible increase in coal burning in a century. And I could go on. Roger Pielke Jr. and colleagues show how the RCP 8.5 scenario was born to provide modelers with a high emissions scenario, and how it was adopted despite contradicting any real world indicator of the expected trajectory of future emissions.

Full article here (paywalled) https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-media-vs-climate-science-11618355224

Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. had this to say on Twitter:

Obviously, attacking messengers, not seeing anything here and defending the untenable etc. are obviously not good strategies

Tackling scenario abuse presents a great opportunity not only to improve science, but also to build public and policy-making confidence in science, especially among the distrustful

– Roger Pielke Jr. (@RogerPielkeJr) April 14, 2021

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