Warmth-related deaths since 1991 Propaganda research simply alarming local weather science incompetence – cotton wool?
Guest contribution by Larry Hamlin
The climate alarmist cabal is all tweeting about a made-up “study” that propagandistically claims that “climate change” has been responsible for 37% of the world’s heat deaths since 1991, as reported in numerous “climate alarmism-hyped” newspapers “like the LA Times released.
WUWT has an excellent article debunking this fabricated study claim by Pasi Autoo and documenting the gruesome modeling schemes used to create these false death rate claims.
In summary, the WUWT article reveals in detail the following modeling absurdities regarding how this false heat-related death outcome was invented.
“According to studies, heat-related deaths at 732 locations in 43 countries covered have increased by an average of 37.0%. 37.0% increase between 1991 and 2018.
To make such a claim, you need to determine the following:
- Extreme temperatures have actually increased at study locations
- The temperature rise during the study period is not due to other factors such as the urban heat island effect
- The number of deaths has really increased during heat waves
- The increase in deaths is not due to the increase in population
- The increase in deaths is not due to a higher average age of the population
- No other factors have an impact on deaths like natural disasters. “
“Date, deaths and temperature. The basic assumption seems to be that high temperatures directly affect the death rate. Please wait! Where are the population data or age distribution data? Such details seem to be considered trivial information that is not needed for an actual analysis. “
“It’s very simple: Just evaluate the relationship between temperature and mortality and then think about how much the temperature has risen with the help of climate models. The bottom line is the percentage of deaths caused by climate change. “
“The methods used in AM Vicedo-Cabrera et all 2021 are seriously flawed, causing the results and conclusions to be invalid.
This rebuttal concerned only two countries (Finland and Spain), but this already proves that:
- There is no increased heat-related mortality from any cause, and if overall mortality does not increase, climate change cannot have an impact
- All increases are due to flawed methods that rely on climate models rather than real mortality data
- Even then, the study makes no mention of other factors that affect mortality, such as population aging and population growth
- The adjustment to the excess heat takes place automatically everywhere, if the increasing income allows it. “
The fact that this heavily flawed heat-related “study” is based on “climate models rather than real mortality data” makes the alleged results unambiguous as mere guesswork and speculation.
The UN IPCC stated 20 years ago in its AR3 Climate Review report that climate models cannot be used to determine future climate states, which means running a hypothetical climate model from 1991 to 2018 and claiming that such a scheme can accurately distinguish the difference between actual measured temperatures with and without putative human-made climate change variables is scientifically unsupported, as highlighted below.
The AR3 report in Section 220.127.116.11 stated:
“All in all, a strategy has to recognize what is possible. In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system and therefore a long-term prediction of future climate conditions is not possible. The highest that we can expect is the prediction of the probability distribution of the future possible states of the system by generating ensemble model solutions. ”
In addition, the UN IPCC AR5 Climate Report found that its climate model scenarios, which are used to assess alleged man-made influences on climate outcomes, are not based on established probabilities related to alleged climate change variables, but only characterized as “plausible” and “illustrative” means more guesswork and speculation, as noted in the technical summary section of the AR5 report below.
“The scenarios should be viewed as plausible and descriptive and are not linked to probabilities.” (12.3.1; Box 1.1)
The following provides data on the average number of global deaths per decade related to all types of global natural disasters, including extreme temperatures, along with an explanation for the significant decrease in these deaths from 1900 to 2015.
“In the graph we show the global deaths from natural disasters since 1900, but instead of reporting annual deaths, we show the annual average by decades. The data for this diagram can be found in the table presented here.
As we can see, there has been a significant decrease in global deaths from natural disasters over the course of the 20th century. In the early 1900s, the annual average was often in the range of 400,000 to 500,000 deaths. Through the second half of the century and into the early 2000s, we saw a sharp drop to less than 100,000 – at least five times lower than those highs.
This decline is even more impressive when we look at population growth over that period. If we correct the population – we show this data in the form of death rates (measured per 100,000 inhabitants) – then we see a more than 10-fold decrease in the last century. This diagram can be viewed Here, with the data in tabular form Here. “
The global temperature-related deaths are listed below for the period 1991 to 2019.
The extreme highs of 2003 and 2010 reflect the record hot spell in Europe in summer 2003 with 66,000 deaths and Russia in summer 2010 with 55,000 deaths.
This data is also shown in a bubble chart, where the size of the bubble represents the total number of deaths per year for each type of disaster, as shown below.
The total death bubbles at extreme temperatures are given as 74,698 and 57,188 for the peak years 2003 and 2010, respectively.
These graphs of total deaths from natural disasters do not reflect the tremendous world population growth that occurred between 1900 and 2019 as shown below.
The graph below shows the death rates from natural disasters, which explains the significant impact of the huge population growth over this period.
As shown in this graph, the global death rate in extreme temperatures, which correctly reflects population growth, is decreasing from 1.2 deaths per 100,000 in 2003 to 0.825 deaths per 100,000 in 2010 to 0.007 deaths per 100,000 in 2016 and remains until 2018 at this level.
Actual recorded global death rates from extreme temperatures have declined significantly since 2003 and do not support claims, driven by a scientifically flawed climate model, that global climate change is contributing to increased global death rates from extreme temperatures. The hyped “heat death study” is a product of the scare-mongering driven incompetent climate science.