World Document Grain Manufacturing Forecast for 2023/24 – Are You Comfortable With It?

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By Paul Homewood

Which climate crisis?

Global corn production is expected to rise sharply, primarily due to forecasts of continued high production in Brazil and a recovery in the United States and Argentina. Shipments in Ukraine are expected to fall as the ongoing war limits production. Trade is expected to increase as ample supplies from major exporters Brazil, Argentina and the United States drive down prices and support a recovery in global demand. Global corn consumption for feed and non-feed purposes is expected to increase. Closing inventories are also expected to increase, mainly due to a sharp rise in inventories in the United States.

The global outlook for wheat is for greater production and consumption with declining global trade and ending inventories. Production is expected to rise with larger harvests in Argentina, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India and Turkey and more than offset large declines in Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine. World trade will contract with lower imports for China. Declines in exports for Australia, India, Ukraine and the United States will more than offset gains for Argentina, Canada and the EU. Global consumption is projected to increase through greater Food, Seed and Industrial (FSI) consumption, which will more than offset lower feed and residue consumption. Closing stocks are expected to fall, with smaller stocks in the EU, Russia and the United States.

Global rice production is forecast to reach record levels, with greater production in Asia, particularly on the back of bumper harvests in Bangladesh, India and China, and a rebound in Pakistan. Global consumption is expected to rise to new record levels, mainly due to strong growth in India, Bangladesh and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trade is expected to remain almost unchanged, with India remaining the largest exporter. Pakistan is expected to post significant export growth amid a recovering harvest, while forecasts for Thailand and Vietnam – the next largest exporters – are down on lower demand from Indonesia. Global equities continue their downtrend to a 6-year low.

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