Month: March 2021

Guest “Well That’s Funny Right There” by David Middleton

February 24, 2021 – Energy & Environment
Oil reserves are destroying clean energy in 2021 after years of lagging behind

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets

Over the past two years, the stocks of electric vehicles and emerging renewable technologies have risen as investors price in the transition from fossil fuels. By 2021, however, this representation has been reversed.

By the numbers: XOP, an ETF tracking the largest U.S. oil and gas companies, is up nearly 40% so far this year as oil producers like Diamondback Energy and Occidental Petroleum saw their stocks jump more than 50%.

[…]

On the other hand: Clean energy has suffered, led by the swooning of the world’s best stock of 2020, Tesla, which fell in bear market territory, down 20.6% from its last record high on Jan. 8.

[…]

The big picture: Tech companies have broadly seen a turndown so far in February, but renewable energy companies have done much worse. ICLN is down 7.1% this year, while the Nasdaq Composite is up 4.5% and the Nasdaq 100 is up 2.4%

The last word: The 2021 malaise comes despite the good news for the industry in the coming year: President Biden is expected to increase investments in renewable energy in the US, oil prices soar, and initial estimates of global EV sales in 2020 surged to over 3 million and achieved a market share of 4.4% – almost double the 2.5% share of 2019.

Axios

I have my own pet theory as to why oil supplies suddenly went up while the green shale was filling up.

“Buy the Rumor, Sell the News”

Buy the Rumor, Sell the News is a market adage based on the belief that if profit-taking occurs after the actual news is released, stock prices move in anticipation of rumors and recover.

CNBC Meme Generator … SJW fact checker note: This is a meme! This is actually not the dialogue from The Godfather. Bonasera (Salvatore Corsitto) did not whisper to Don Vito Corleone (Marlon Brando) in The Godfather: “Don … buy the rumor, sell the news”.

The rumor

The “rumor” was that if President Donald Trump were defeated by a Democrat in 2020, the new administration would end the oil and gas industry and save the planet with a Warp Speed ​​Moon Shot clean energy pogrom.

The news

The “news” was that the November coup landed dementia-stricken Joe Biden, who often doesn’t know where he is, and the even less competent Vice President Harris, who is supposed to shut down the oil and gas industry and save the planet a warp speed moon shot pogrom for clean energy.

The Axios article compares two Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs):

I made my own chart of XOP & ICLN on the MarketWatch website:

XOP (blue) and ICLN (black) since the beginning of the year.

In terms of year-to-date performance, the two funds were up to date with Harris-Biden Dominion’s first full day.

XOP actually started right after election day:

XOP CNBC

XOP started because oil prices then also rose …

WTI CNBC

Oils good that end well

Nyuk, Nyuk, Nyuk!

Additional notes on SJW Fact Checkers:

• Learn to recognize sarcasm
• The following words / phrases were used sarcastically:
  • rebellion
  • plagued by dementia
  • Harris-Biden Dominion
  • pogrom
• If you’ve ever reviewed The Babylon Bee, you might be an idiot.
• If I have to tell you, when I’m sarcastic, there was no point in being sarcastic … It works the same with memes.
• No. I can’t prove Joe Biden drove up the price of oil, but at least I give him credit for something.
• Yeah, I know Curly Howard wasn’t in Oils Well That Ends Well. He was dead at the time. Joe Besser was the fat guy and he didn’t say Nyuk, Nyuk, Nyuk … I’m fat, I can say fat!

Who remembers this classic?

Woob, woob, woob, woob!

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Mars’ gravity makes it an amazing place to find some of the greatest landscapes in the solar system. This includes the largest sand dune in the solar system – one that is located in Russell Crater. Now a team of scientists led by Dr. Cynthia Dinwiddie something unique on the sides of this massive dune. Occasionally, ravines form along its surface. Dr. Dinwiddie’s novel explanation for this phenomenon – CO2 boulders roll over the surface of the dune.

This is not the first time that the canyons have been observed: “For over two decades, planetary researchers have had a lot of ideas about how and when very long, narrow canyons formed on frost-affected sand dunes on Mars,” says Dr. Dinwiddie. Explanations for these canyons mostly refer to a type of CO2 ice or water ice.

MRO image shows downhill canyons that have formed on Mars.
Photo credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / Univ. from Arizona

There were two main features of the dune that led to a possible explanation of the gorges. The first was that changes have been actively made to the canyons in the dune since the observation began, contradicting the original theory that they had been around since time immemorial. The second was that bright blocks of CO2 ice could be seen in some canyons.

The novel data point that Dr. Dinwiddie’s extensive data search showed that the canyons form seasonally. In particular, they appear during the early spring equivalent of the southern Martian hemisphere. Dr. Dinwiddie first noticed this by identifying changes in brightness in the canyons themselves. Darker Gulley sand was exposed so that a change was easily noticeable even from distant remote sensing platforms such as the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter.

Image recording of the changes in the canyons that led to a better understanding of their formation.
Photo credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / University of Arizona

There are two main explanations for this change in surface albedo, both of which are related to the Martian times. In the fall and winter, temperatures drop to a point where CO2 freezes and ice builds up on the side of the dune. In spring, these ice deposits heat up and cause instabilities in their internal structure, which can lead to outgassing.

Occasionally this outgassing is simply released as a CO2 train. More rarely, however, it can actually split the block of ice, causing smaller fragments to blow up and eventually land on another part of the dune. They might even roll a little when they land, creating the canyons that are now much darker red when the darker sand beneath the surface is exposed without being covered in dust.

Image from the new study showing clouds of dust caused as the CO2 migrated down the dune.
Photo credit: NASA / JPL / Malin Space Systems (CTX) and NASA / JPL / University of Arizona

The theory accurately explains the active formation, seasonality, and the presence of CO2 ice in the canyons themselves. Unfortunately, all of this hard work to create darker spots will eventually be undone as the annual Martian dust storms cover the area with a more even coating of dust.

NASA video over dry ice and sand dunes.
Photo credit: NASA YouTube Channel

Despite the inconsistency of the discoloration, the canyons are still there, if a little more evenly. This novel theory about how they got there also helps show how active the Martian surface really is – even if it’s not directly flowing water.

Learn more:
SwRI – SwRI scientists collect evidence of dynamic seasonal activity on a Martian sand dune
Spaceref.com – Evidence of dynamic seasonal activity on a Martian sand dune
Harvard – Seasonality of Mars Dune Gorge activity today
UT – New Gully appears on Mars, but it’s probably not on the water

Mission statement
Feathers to be observed from a dune with freshly formed ravines.
Photo credit: NASA / JPL / University of Arizona

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Guest essay by Eric Worrall

According to the LA Times, a “disruptive” number of used vehicles are exported to poor countries. To combat climate change, the manufacture, sale and export of gas guzzlers should be stopped.

Editorial: To save the planet from climate change, gas guzzlers must die

Until TIMES EDITORIAL BOARDMARCH 1, 2021 3 AM PT

The numbers paint a daunting picture. In 2019, consumers worldwide bought 64 million new passenger cars and 27 million new commercial vehicles, of which only 2.1 million were electric. Climate researchers tell us that we have less than a decade to make significant cuts in CO2 emissions – including those from internal combustion engines – if we are to stave off the worst effects of global warming.

Still, manufacturers are still producing and buying an overwhelming number of vehicles that, on average, continue to spew carbon into the atmosphere for a dozen years after they first leave the lot. That means that the new cars bought this year will be on the road well into the 2030s – long after the point in time when we should have cut emissions.

…

Such a move will have its biggest impact in the United States – especially in car-heavy California, where transportation accounts for 47% of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions. Worldwide, transport is only responsible for 15% of total emissions. The main culprit is power generation, including the on-site burning of fossil fuels by industry, which accounts for almost half. Such differences in the sources of carbon emissions illustrate why a range of global policies are required. Not a single solution gets us where we need to be.

…

Much more needs to be done, however, starting with policies and programs to get rid of those gas burners already on the street. A worryingly high number of used vehicles are being exported from the US, Europe and Japan to developing countries where there may be few regulations governing safety and emissions. Although the transport needs of these countries are clear, it makes little sense to meet this demand with vehicles that continue to contribute to a global emissions problem and, in many cases, would fail the safety inspections in their exporting countries.

…

Read more: https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2021-03-01/editorial-to-save-the-planet-from-climate-change-gas-guzzlers-have-to-die

People in poor countries buy used vehicles because they can’t afford anything else. You certainly cannot afford electric vehicles.

Banning vehicle exports to poor countries would force them to build their own, probably using simple solutions like 1950s technology, whatever they could put together in their workshops. Just like all those old vehicles that have been serviced by the people of Cuba well beyond their normal end of life. I doubt this would lead to a reduction in global emissions.

For example, if California is all electric, it’s just not practical. On Black Friday 2019 there was a half-mile queue for an EV charging station in Kettleman City. Although Kettleman City had 40 charging stations at the time, the station could not supply all of the charging stations to the maximum.

Tesla’s fast chargers can deliver up to a quarter of a megawatt, although this wears off very quickly if you want an 80% charge (45 minutes) because the battery gets hot while charging and a quarter of a megawatt of heat is not easily dissipated. But think about what this means when you have 40 chargers running at the same time: –

0.25 MW x 40 = 10 megawatts of power.

That’s a lot of electricity – enough to supply 5000 households with electricity. Only for a charging station with full capacity.

The California power grid can barely meet current demand. So where will California find 10 gigawatts of extra power to charge a 100% statewide EV fleet?

Compare this to a gas station, which is essentially just a large underground gas tank and pump. Petrol pump stations supply vehicles with electricity even faster. However, because the electricity is conveniently stored in liquid form, it is much easier and cheaper to handle and deliver.

My point is that without major breakthroughs, all fleets of electric vehicles are just as imaginative as the rest of the green package of climate “solutions”.

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